Sep. 16, 2018, at 11:03 PM
What Happens To Brett Kavanaugh’s Nomination Now?
By Perry Bacon Jr.
The fight over Brett Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court nomination looks much different after Christine Blasey Ford came forward in a Washington Post interview and said that he attempted to sexually assault her when the two were in high school. What happens next? Will President Trump and Senate Republicans stick with Kavanaugh? Right now, we have more questions than answers. Here are the big ones …
How do the looming midterms affect Republicans’ choices? A big part of this story comes down to timing. An investigation of the allegations, as Democrats have called for, would almost certainly take at least a few weeks. And if Republicans decided in mid-October that they could not move forward with Kavanaugh’s nomination, they might not have time to choose a new nominee and get him or her through the confirmation process before the current Senate session ends in December. The Supreme Court nomination process for Kavanaugh was scheduled to last about three months — from Justice Anthony Kennedy’s resignation in late June to a full Senate vote on Kavanaugh’s nomination, which was expected in late September — at least until this news broke. So if Republicans want to move on from Kavanaugh and try to get a different nominee confirmed, they probably need to pick that person during the next two weeks in order to finish the process by the end of December.
What’s wrong with waiting till January? Well, Republicans are expected to maintain control of the Senate — they’re 2 in 3 favorites according to our latest Senate forecast — but if Democrats gain control, it’s hard to imagine them confirming a second Trump appointee to the court. So the GOP has some incentive to either fully stand behind Kavanaugh — or abandon him very quickly. Remember, the current Senate, which has 51 Republicans and 49 members aligned with the Democrats, is in operation through the end of the year. The people elected in November don’t start serving immediately. So Republicans, no matter what happens in the midterms, can push a Supreme Court nominee through until the end of the year. There would be strong criticism of Republicans if they pushed through a Supreme Court nominee in December if the voters had elected a Democratic Senate a month earlier, but Senate Republicans have ignored such norms before and I expect would be fine with doing so again for the purpose of ensuring a solid conservative majority on the Court.
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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-happens-to-brett-kavanaughs-nomination-now/
