If Dems take House, recall what happened after ’94 midterms
By Peter Hanson, opinion contributor — 09/17/18 08:00 AM EDT
Most observers predict Democratic gains in the House this fall, but just how big is the Democratic advantage? A new set of measures from the inaugural Grinnell College National Poll shows that this lead is narrower than commonly understood — and that Democrats’ key advantage is the high level of engagement reported among the party’s voters.
Most polls ask respondents for which party they would vote on a generic House ballot. This question, which ignores the actual candidates in a race and the power of incumbency, leads to notoriously noisy results. Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight polling round-up shows everything from a 2- to 14-point advantage for Democrats on a generic ballot, depending on the poll and its methodology — the difference between Republicans narrowly holding the chamber and a Democratic landslide.
Interpreting many of these polls is challenging because they report results from all registered voters, as opposed to just those likely to vote on election day.
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https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/406645-if-dems-take-house-recall-what-happened-after-94-midterms
