A Red Exodus Is Behind Predictions Of A Blue Wave

[corbe]

A Red Exodus Is Behind Predictions Of A Blue Wave

by David Thornton
12 mins-edited

More than one in six House Republicans will not be returning in the next Congress.

Much has been written about the signs of epic disaster that are looming for Republicans ahead of this year’s midterm elections. Now a leading nonpartisan expert on elections says that the biggest threat to the Republican majority in the House may not be a “blue wave,” but a “red exodus.”

Dave Wasserman, the Cook Political Report’s House analyst, told Axios that the most overlooked aspect of the 2018 midterms is that “a blue wave is obscuring a red exodus.” A total of 39 Republican and 10 Democrat House incumbents are not running for reelection. Of these, 26 Republicans and eight Democrats are totally retiring from their political careers.

The wave of retiring Republicans has left a gaping hole in Republican defenses for the house. When primary losses are considered, there are now 43 Republican seats without an incumbent on the ballot. That’s more than one in six House Republicans who will not be returning in the next Congress. Wasserman notes that you have to look back at least a hundred years to find more retiring incumbents.

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https://www.themaven.net/theresurgent/contributors/much-has-been-written-about-the-signs-of-epic-disaster-that-are-looming-for-republicans-ahead-of-omWe0nhn8Em4wuLZPuejqA/

[Frank Cannon]

Most of these dopes are leaving because their House assignment terms are ending because they have been there too damn long. None of them wants the demotion so they are moving to K Street.

[Victoria33]

@corbe
@mystery-ak 

The below is what I observed and wrote about here during the special elections. I have not observed this in prior years of evaluating voter turnout.

"Wasserman says that the most telling sign of a blue wave is the disparity in interest between the two parties. Democrats consistently rate their interest in voting in the midterms higher than Republicans. This intensity gap goes beyond polling and has translated into Democrat voters actually showing up in special elections. Despite Republican wins in many of these elections, Democrat turnout has been extraordinarily high. Deep red districts such as Ohio-12 where Republicans typically win by double-digit margins are now tossups where Republicans win by only a few votes. In other cases, such as Pennsylvania-18, moderate Democrats win districts that were reliably Republican as recently as 2016.

[Free Vulcan]

@corbe
@mystery-ak 

The below is what I observed and wrote about here during the special elections. I have not observed this in prior years of evaluating voter turnout.

"Wasserman says that the most telling sign of a blue wave is the disparity in interest between the two parties. Democrats consistently rate their interest in voting in the midterms higher than Republicans. This intensity gap goes beyond polling and has translated into Democrat voters actually showing up in special elections. Despite Republican wins in many of these elections, Democrat turnout has been extraordinarily high. Deep red districts such as Ohio-12 where Republicans typically win by double-digit margins are now tossups where Republicans win by only a few votes. In other cases, such as Pennsylvania-18, moderate Democrats win districts that were reliably Republican as recently as 2016.

But most of these same special elections are receiving 25-50% turnout v. the presidential elections. Sure Dem turnout it high, but it is also peaked. A good chunk of their registered don't vot Dem. High percentage of a smaller number.

They are barely losing and winning specials by small margins by getting their motivated out while GOP turnout is much less. However, where are they going to come up with the votes in the general?