Not So Cocksure Now? Nate Silver Says 75% Chance Dems Win House
Aug 17, 2018
RUSH: Nate Silver. Since I mentioned it, let’s go listen to it. We have three bites here. This is last night, FiveThirtyEight website, politics podcast, Galen Druke asking the editor-in-chief, Nate Silver, about his forecast for the 2018 midterms. The question: “What odds does your forecast show for control of the House in this election?â€
SILVER: It gives Democrats a three-in-four chance of winning the House. It’s in the Hillary Clinton zone. It’s very similar actually. Part of the reason why we’re saying like three-in-four and one-in-four for Republicans. If you play out this universe four times they win once on average based on information we have now. The situation is bad but it’s not so bad as to be hopeless. Hopeless would be like one in 500. They have like an entirely reasonable shot that their voters turn out, and the political environment becomes a little more favorable for Republicans between now and November and Democrats just lose a lot of the toss-ups based local factors. It’s not far-fetched to think the Republicans hold the House. With that said, you would rather be in the Democrats’ position.
RUSH: Okay. So what good is the 75 percent chance the Democrats win if you then say it’s not far-fetched to think the Republicans could hold the House? How do those two go together? I’ll tell you, because they said the same thing about Hillary winning, and look what happened. They’re now not trusting their data. And the reason they’re not trusting their data is because they still don’t know the Trump voter.
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https://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2018/08/17/not-so-cocksure-nate-silver-says-75-chance-dems-win-house/
