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Author Topic: Forecasting the race for the House [3/4 chance Dems take control]  (Read 680 times)

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Offline Suppressed

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Forecasting the race for the House [3/4 chance Dems take control]
« on: August 17, 2018, 12:35:01 am »
Forecasting the race for the House
Updated Aug. 16, 2018, at 7:22 PM

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

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Online Right_in_Virginia

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Re: Forecasting the race for the House [3/4 chance Dems take control]
« Reply #1 on: August 17, 2018, 02:23:28 am »
Quote
Zogby: Republicans are gaining ground on democrats in the congressional generic
Zogby Analytics, Aug 13, 2018

The Zogby Poll®: Republicans are gaining ground on democrats in the congressional generic; Voters trust President Trump with the economy and keeping America safe much more than democratic leaders; Republicans and Trump are winning back independents.


More:  https://zogbyanalytics.com/news/864-the-zogby-poll-republicans-are-gaining-ground-on-democrats-in-the-congressional-generic-voters-trust-president-trump-with-the-economy-and-keeping-america-safe-much-more-than-democratic-leaders-republicans-and-trump-are-



« Last Edit: August 17, 2018, 02:24:14 am by Right_in_Virginia »
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Online Wingnut

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Re: Forecasting the race for the House [3/4 chance Dems take control]
« Reply #2 on: August 17, 2018, 02:48:01 am »
Quote from: Suppressed on August 17, 2018, 12:35:01 am
Forecasting the race for the House
Updated Aug. 16, 2018, at 7:22 PM

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

Wasn't this the outfit that predicted Hilary's chances to win were 99%?
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Online corbe

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Re: Forecasting the race for the House [3/4 chance Dems take control]
« Reply #3 on: August 17, 2018, 03:50:47 am »
   I'm still optimistic that Trump/GOP keep it, though with slimmer margins than now and Speaker McCarthy won't get squat done for 2 years, then he will retire, quickly, like his two predecessors.
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Online DB

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Re: Forecasting the race for the House [3/4 chance Dems take control]
« Reply #4 on: August 17, 2018, 03:57:01 am »
It is really a contest on who can avoid doing/saying really stupid things prior to the election.

If Trump has another one his twitterfits it will cost dearly.
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Offline INVAR

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Re: Forecasting the race for the House [3/4 chance Dems take control]
« Reply #5 on: August 17, 2018, 04:00:01 am »
Given that the Republicans govern just like liberal Democrats, I can care less which of them is in power.

Makes not a damn dime's worth of difference.  Except that now the Republicans own ObamaCare and deficit spending into the trillions.
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Fart for freedom, fart for liberty and fart proudly.  - Benjamin Franklin

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Offline Chosen Daughter

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Re: Forecasting the race for the House [3/4 chance Dems take control]
« Reply #6 on: August 17, 2018, 04:07:10 am »
Quote from: INVAR on August 17, 2018, 04:00:01 am
Given that the Republicans govern just like liberal Democrats, I can care less which of them is in power.

Makes not a damn dime's worth of difference.  Except that now the Republicans own ObamaCare and deficit spending into the trillions.

And Chosen Daughters prediction is that if Dems do gain control Trump will go left with them.
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Online DB

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Re: Forecasting the race for the House [3/4 chance Dems take control]
« Reply #7 on: August 17, 2018, 04:09:29 am »
Quote from: Chosen Daughter on August 17, 2018, 04:07:10 am
And Chosen Daughters prediction is that if Dems do gain control Trump will go left with them.

And so will a good number of his followers... In for a penny, in for a pound... And we'll be told how brilliant it is "getting things done"... Never mind what those things are...

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Offline Chosen Daughter

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Re: Forecasting the race for the House [3/4 chance Dems take control]
« Reply #8 on: August 17, 2018, 04:17:30 am »
Quote from: DB on August 17, 2018, 04:09:29 am
And so will a good number of his followers... In for a penny, in for a pound... And we'll be told how brilliant it is "getting things done"... Never mind what those things are...

Exactly it is all brilliant.  Even the Omaros scandal.  Should drum up lots of African American votes as they realize that liberal African Americans were employed in the White House.  Brilliant!  Art of the deal!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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AG William Barr: "I'm recused from that matter because one of the law firms that represented Epstein long ago was a firm that I subsequently joined for a period of time."

Alexander Acosta Labor Secretary resigned under pressure concerning his "sweetheart deal" with Jeffrey Epstein.  He was under consideration for AG after Sessions was removed, but was forced to resign instead.

Offline INVAR

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Re: Forecasting the race for the House [3/4 chance Dems take control]
« Reply #9 on: August 17, 2018, 04:54:03 am »
Quote from: Chosen Daughter on August 17, 2018, 04:07:10 am
And Chosen Daughters prediction is that if Dems do gain control Trump will go left with them.

I remember being told by NUMEROUS Trump fanatics during the election when pointing out Trump's financial and campaign support to the Clintons, to Bill DeBlasio and assorted and sundry Democrat agenda items and sacred cows - that Trump HAD TO support those people and things because "that is how you do business in New York".  You support whomever is in power so you get the ability to continue to make your company great.


Trump moving Left is part of who he is.

What will be fun to watch and point out - is all the hoops his faithful will jump through to justify that Leftward jaunt and to explain to us all that this is the new Conservatism.
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Fart for freedom, fart for liberty and fart proudly.  - Benjamin Franklin

...Obsta principiis—Nip the shoots of arbitrary power in the bud, is the only maxim which can ever preserve the liberties of any people. When the people give way, their deceivers, betrayers and destroyers press upon them so fast that there is no resisting afterwards. The nature of the encroachment upon [the] American constitution is such, as to grow every day more and more encroaching. Like a cancer, it eats faster and faster every hour." - John Adams, February 6, 1775

Online corbe

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Re: Forecasting the race for the House [3/4 chance Dems take control]
« Reply #10 on: August 17, 2018, 03:58:17 pm »
Worst-case scenario for House GOP is 70-seat wipeout

By Reid Wilson - 08/17/18 11:40 AM EDT 

Democratic enthusiasm and a GOP malaise surrounding President Trump have set the stage for a potentially devastating midterm election for the House Republican majority.

In a series of special elections mostly in reliably GOP districts, Democratic candidates have routinely outperformed Hillary Clinton’s share of the vote from 2016.

At the same time, Republican candidates have underperformed President Trump's vote share in all but two special elections.

If that pattern holds in November, the worst-case scenario for the GOP is a truly historic wipeout of as many as 72 House seats, according to The Hill’s analysis of special election results and congressional and presidential returns from 2016.

<..snip..>

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/402329-worst-case-scenario-for-house-gop-is-70-seat-wipeout
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