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Offline thackney

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EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook adds natural gas and hydrocarbon gas liquids charts
« on: July 26, 2018, 01:48:57 pm »
EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook adds natural gas and hydrocarbon gas liquids charts
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=36753#tab3
JULY 26, 2018



EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) revised its standard set of figures in its July 2018 publication. To provide more clarity on changing natural gas and hydrocarbon gas liquids (HGL) markets, two new natural gas figures and four new HGL figures are now included with the monthly forecast. Many of the figures previously included in STEO have been redesigned.

Two new natural gas figures illustrate changes in the natural gas market forecast. EIA forecasts that U.S. natural gas production, consumption, and exports will grow through 2019. U.S. dry natural gas production is forecast to increase by 11% in 2018 and average 81.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) for the year, surpassing the previous record set in 2015. Natural gas production is expected to continue increasing in 2019, averaging 84.5 Bcf/d.

Natural gas consumption is forecast in the STEO to increase by 7% in 2018, averaging 79.7 Bcf/d for the year, then decrease slightly in 2019. EIA expects higher annual natural gas consumption in 2018 mainly because relatively cold weather earlier this year led to strong residential and commercial heating demand, and because warmer forecast temperatures are projected to lead to greater use of natural gas in the electric power sector this summer.

The United States became a net exporter of natural gas in 2017 on an annual basis for the first time in 60 years, averaging 0.3 Bcf/day. EIA expects exports of both pipeline and liquefied natural gas to continue to increase while imports—almost all of which are pipeline imports from Canada—remain steady. As a result, net natural gas exports are forecast to average 2.0 Bcf/day in 2018 and 5.5 Bcf/day in 2019.



Four new figures illustrate trends in the HGL market and provide detail for individual HGL products. EIA expects that increased natural gas production will result in continued production growth of hydrocarbon gas liquids—butanes, ethane, propane, and natural gasoline—at natural gas processing plants. Natural gas plants are expected to produce an additional 600,000 barrels per day (b/d) of HGLs in 2018 and an additional 400,000 b/d in 2019, with ethane accounting for more than half of this growth.

EIA expects increased U.S. petrochemical demand and exports to stimulate higher ethane production. Combined net exports of all HGLs increase by 500,000 b/d by 2019, and propane exports account for more than one-third of this growth. Propane inventories, which have been lower than average since early 2017, are expected to return to their previous five-year averages (2013–17) by September.







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Offline thackney

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Re: EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook adds natural gas and hydrocarbon gas liquids charts
« Reply #1 on: July 26, 2018, 01:52:13 pm »


« Last Edit: July 26, 2018, 01:52:52 pm by thackney »
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Offline IsailedawayfromFR

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Re: EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook adds natural gas and hydrocarbon gas liquids charts
« Reply #2 on: July 26, 2018, 04:46:13 pm »


This graph shows a large increase going on in natural gas consumption.

It looks modest by the scale used.
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Offline thackney

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Re: EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook adds natural gas and hydrocarbon gas liquids charts
« Reply #3 on: July 26, 2018, 05:06:54 pm »
Quote from: IsailedawayfromFR on July 26, 2018, 04:46:13 pm


This graph shows a large increase going on in natural gas consumption.

It looks modest by the scale used.

Some more info:



https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/
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Offline IsailedawayfromFR

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Re: EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook adds natural gas and hydrocarbon gas liquids charts
« Reply #4 on: July 26, 2018, 06:21:40 pm »
Quote from: thackney on July 26, 2018, 05:06:54 pm
Some more info:



https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/
Unsure here how LNG is defined.  Is it consumption or marketed?
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Offline thackney

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Re: EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook adds natural gas and hydrocarbon gas liquids charts
« Reply #5 on: July 26, 2018, 06:35:06 pm »
Quote from: IsailedawayfromFR on July 26, 2018, 06:21:40 pm
Unsure here how LNG is defined.  Is it consumption or marketed?

LNG is natural gas.  It is cooled to become liquid only to reduce volume for transportation.  It is heated back to gas in order to be used.  LNG won't ignite, it has to be a gas first.

Some LNG, like pipeline NatGas, is exported.  Some LNG is consumed domestically.  But either way, it is counted with the Natural Gas numbers.
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Offline IsailedawayfromFR

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Re: EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook adds natural gas and hydrocarbon gas liquids charts
« Reply #6 on: July 26, 2018, 08:28:15 pm »
Quote from: thackney on July 26, 2018, 06:35:06 pm
LNG is natural gas.  It is cooled to become liquid only to reduce volume for transportation.  It is heated back to gas in order to be used.  LNG won't ignite, it has to be a gas first.

Some LNG, like pipeline NatGas, is exported.  Some LNG is consumed domestically.  But either way, it is counted with the Natural Gas numbers.
So what number is it?  Consumption?  Since it is not mostly consumed but exported, I assume it is not consumption, but something else as very little of it is used domestically.  Must be in the green lines that say 'Net Imports'.
« Last Edit: July 26, 2018, 08:35:15 pm by IsailedawayfromFR »
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Offline thackney

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Re: EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook adds natural gas and hydrocarbon gas liquids charts
« Reply #7 on: July 30, 2018, 11:43:40 am »
Quote from: IsailedawayfromFR on July 26, 2018, 08:28:15 pm
So what number is it?  Consumption?  Since it is not mostly consumed but exported, I assume it is not consumption, but something else as very little of it is used domestically.  Must be in the green lines that say 'Net Imports'.

LNG is not a special, separated category.  It is just a mode of fuel used to lower the cost of transportation or storage for larger volumes.  It is neither created nor ultimately used in the LNG form, even when loaded onto the final use tank.  It will first be vaporized before it is used.

What is consumed is counted in the consumption.  What is exported is counted in the export volumes.  Much of it is exported. 
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Offline IsailedawayfromFR

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Re: EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook adds natural gas and hydrocarbon gas liquids charts
« Reply #8 on: July 30, 2018, 01:24:52 pm »
Quote from: thackney on July 30, 2018, 11:43:40 am
LNG is not a special, separated category.  It is just a mode of fuel used to lower the cost of transportation or storage for larger volumes.  It is neither created nor ultimately used in the LNG form, even when loaded onto the final use tank.  It will first be vaporized before it is used.

What is consumed is counted in the consumption.  What is exported is counted in the export volumes.  Much of it is exported.
you say it is in the export volumes, but I think you mean it in in the green line entitled 'net imports'.
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Offline thackney

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Re: EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook adds natural gas and hydrocarbon gas liquids charts
« Reply #9 on: July 30, 2018, 01:30:48 pm »
Quote from: IsailedawayfromFR on July 30, 2018, 01:24:52 pm
you say it is in the export volumes, but I think you mean it in in the green line entitled 'net imports'.

On that particular chart, yes.  On that chart, LNG that is exported or imported, is included in net imports, as is all Natural Gas exported or imported.

LNG is not a separate category for any of the NatGas measurements.  Some LNG is used in like Natural Gas in storage facilities, similar to salt caverns or depleted reservoirs.
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Offline IsailedawayfromFR

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Re: EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook adds natural gas and hydrocarbon gas liquids charts
« Reply #10 on: July 30, 2018, 10:44:22 pm »
Quote from: thackney on July 30, 2018, 01:30:48 pm
On that particular chart, yes.  On that chart, LNG that is exported or imported, is included in net imports, as is all Natural Gas exported or imported.

LNG is not a separate category for any of the NatGas measurements.  Some LNG is used in like Natural Gas in storage facilities, similar to salt caverns or depleted reservoirs.
Finally!  Got the reason why the net imports line on graph include the exports of LNG.

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