Bahrain's largest oil find estimated at 80 billion barrels

[thackney]

Bahrain's largest oil find estimated at 80 billion barrels
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2018/04/04/bahrains-largest-oil-find-estimated-at-80-billion-barrels.html

The small island-nation of Bahrain says its largest ever discovery of oil amounts to an estimated 80 billion barrels.

The government on Wednesday disclosed details of the find, saying in a press conference that the shale oil was discovered in the offshore Khalij al-Bahrain Basin, which spans some 2,000 square kilometers (770 sq. miles) in shallow waters off the country's western coast....

[thackney]

http://www.arabnews.com/node/1278916/business-economy

Bahrain’s oil minister and energy executives detailed the find at a press conference, saying the tight oil was discovered in the offshore Khalij Al-Bahrain Basin, which spans some 2,000 square kilometers (770 square miles) in shallow waters off the country’s western coast.

The field also contains an estimated 14 trillion cubic feet of gas.

Oil Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa Al Khalifa said the amount of oil that can be extracted from the Khalij Al-Bahrain Basin is still being studied.

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Oil in place is extremely different from oil economic to extract.

http://www.upstreamonline.com/upstreamtechnology/1275866/tackling-the-tight-oil-recovery-challenge

North American shale reservoirs contain billions of barrels of oil but the industry’s average recovery factor is typically well below 10%, compared with an average 30% for conventional reservoirs.

[truth_seeker]

80,000,000,000=3,653,000 bpd for 60 years

[thackney]

80,000,000,000=3,653,000 bpd for 60 years

But typical shale field recovery rates are less than 10% of oil in place.

https://www.aogr.com/magazine/editors-choice/improving-recovery-factors-in-liquids-rich-resource-plays-requires-new-appr

Even with all the mechanical advances made in developing shale, including longer laterals, increased frac densities, stronger proppant and cleaner breaking fluids, the industry is still recovering only an estimated 5-8 percent of the hydrocarbons in place in liquid-rich shales.

[Bigun]

But typical shale field recovery rates are less than 10% of oil in place.

https://www.aogr.com/magazine/editors-choice/improving-recovery-factors-in-liquids-rich-resource-plays-requires-new-appr

Even with all the mechanical advances made in developing shale, including longer laterals, increased frac densities, stronger proppant and cleaner breaking fluids, the industry is still recovering only an estimated 5-8 percent of the hydrocarbons in place in liquid-rich shales.

Today.  I suspect that will improve over time and I would take 300,000 BOPD for the next 60 years and be happy if it were me!

[WingNot]

Didn't the "Experts" tell us we would have depleted the earth's Crude oil supplies by now? 

[thackney]

Today.  I suspect that will improve over time and I would take 300,000 BOPD for the next 60 years and be happy if it were me!

I agree with both ideas.

But 300,000 bpd isn't the game changer the title would lead you to first believe.

[thackney]

Didn't the "Experts" tell us we would have depleted the earth's Crude oil supplies by now?

That was the cheap easy stuff.  The oil you can make money at $18/barrel.

[truth_seeker]

But typical shale field recovery rates are less than 10% of oil in place.

So fast forward 60 years. What might be possible tech-wise, that far out in time?

-Secondary recovery
-Tertiary recovery

[thackney]

So fast forward 60 years. What might be possible tech-wise, that far out in time?

-Secondary recovery
-Tertiary recovery

One can always dream.  After all total oil in place for the Bakken has been estimated as high as 500 billion barrels.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

80,000,000,000=3,653,000 bpd for 60 years

Eh, it doesn't work that way.

In place volumes are never what one would recover from a discovery.  Not on any field I have ever heard of anyway.

And this is a shale, which actually do not produce much of anything.  Most of what people call 'shales' are not what produces, but the fraccable components within some of the shales. Some Shales have nothing that can produce, so until we see some actual flowrates, we have no reserves in the ground at all.

And the amount of gas associated with this oil is incredibly small at only 175 scf per bbl of oil in place.   I have never to date seen any unconventional oils produce at such low gas oil ratios.  One of the key components, and there are several other critical ones, is that one must have lots of gas associated with the oil in order for oil to flow through the incredibly low permeability matrix and fractures.  I suspect that recovery rates are much less than 10% of the oil in place, and may be non-existent.

Lastly, this is offshore.  I have not seen much in the way of offshore shales produce.  This is mainly due to the high capital costs, need for all of the infrastructure needed for the required liquids and sand volumes, etc. 

So in a word, this just might be hoopla, although I hope they are successful.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

So fast forward 60 years. What might be possible tech-wise, that far out in time?

-Secondary recovery
-Tertiary recovery

there will of course be more recovery techniques.

45 years ago I worked tertiary recovery for a major oil company due to the 'promise' it made toward improved recoveries.

There are a few notable successes out there since then, the most widespread being thermal recovery, with miscible injection like CO2 very adapted to certain fields and basins.  Not much in the way of success in chemical or other EOR methods.  None of these can be blanket applied, as geology is the main reason projects do or do not apply. 

And tertiary recoveries outside thermal are very low compared to primary.

And I have never seen as yet a successful tertiary project in a shale or unconventional, even when prices were high.

All that lab success just cannot be applied in the field, most due to that same geology.

[thackney]

And I have never seen as yet a successful tertiary project in a shale or unconventional, even when prices were high.

I haven't found any of these either.  But time may bring something...

[IsailedawayfromFR]

I haven't found any of these either.  But time may bring something...

I seriously doubt it.  After all these years of waiting for successful chemical floods, one can count them on one hand.

Geology rules, in spite of what Sheldon says. 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MFPNXCqJrCI

[thackney]

Analysts: New Find Won't Yield 'Significant Economic Windfall' for Bahrain
https://www.rigzone.com/news/analysts_new_find_wont_yield_significant_economic_windfall_for_bahrain-19-apr-2018-154304-article/
April 19, 2018

Oil and gas analysts at BMI Research do not expect Bahrain’s recent discovery of a large oil and gas field to yield a “significant economic windfall” for the country.

“Extraction will be fraught with technical difficulties, pushing up operating costs at the field, such that the government will have to provide generous contract terms to partner companies,” the analysts said in a brief research note sent to Rigzone.

“We believe this will limit prospects for a significant boost to the country’s fiscal revenues and balance of payments dynamics. As such, we maintain our view that Bahrain will continue to face significant economic headwinds,” the analysts added.

BMI, which highlighted that typical onshore reserves in the Middle East have an extraction cost of around $10 per barrel, said the extraction cost for the newfound resources is likely to run close to between $75 and 80 per barrel.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

Analysts: New Find Won't Yield 'Significant Economic Windfall' for Bahrain
https://www.rigzone.com/news/analysts_new_find_wont_yield_significant_economic_windfall_for_bahrain-19-apr-2018-154304-article/
April 19, 2018

Oil and gas analysts at BMI Research do not expect Bahrain’s recent discovery of a large oil and gas field to yield a “significant economic windfall” for the country.

“Extraction will be fraught with technical difficulties, pushing up operating costs at the field, such that the government will have to provide generous contract terms to partner companies,” the analysts said in a brief research note sent to Rigzone.

“We believe this will limit prospects for a significant boost to the country’s fiscal revenues and balance of payments dynamics. As such, we maintain our view that Bahrain will continue to face significant economic headwinds,” the analysts added.

BMI, which highlighted that typical onshore reserves in the Middle East have an extraction cost of around $10 per barrel, said the extraction cost for the newfound resources is likely to run close to between $75 and 80 per barrel.

Extraction costs are in a nutshell why it is significantly difficult to exploit unconventionals in most areas in the world.  The large country share of production precludes making profits for any company that attempts to exploit.

Those countries used to 80-90% of take will not easily accommodate the reduced share of perhaps only 30-40% that will be required to make economics work for a company.

This is not about risk of successful activity.  It is simply about making an acceptable profit.

I see the only way of getting a company to get into this activity is to require it to do so in exchange for a company's access to more conventional lucrative fields.

As an example, Caltex did this many years ago in Indonesia as the country 'forced it' to undertake geothermal operations in the country in exchange for retaining its 1mmbopd production in Sumatra from Minas and Duri.