Economy added 313,000 jobs in February, as unemployment held at 4.1 percent

[mystery-ak]

Economy added 313,000 jobs in February, as unemployment held at 4.1 percent
by Joseph Lawler | Mar 9, 2018, 8:31 AM

The economy added 313,000 new jobs and unemployment held at 4.1 percent in February, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday in an encouraging report.

February's job growth was the strongest of any month since July 2016, easily beating forecasters' expectations for around 205,000 new jobs.

Even as the jobs recovery ages toward an eighth year, it has remained more than strong enough to keep the unemployment rate trending down.

Job creation has averaged 242,000 over the past three months, when counting upward revisions to the past two months' numbers. That average is more than twice the 90,000 to 120,000 jobs a month the Federal Reserve calculates are necessary to keep up with population growth.

more
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/economy-added-313000-jobs-in-february-as-unemployment-held-at-41-percent/article/2651147

[mystery-ak]

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/black-unemployment-falls-to-second-lowest-level-on-record-in-february/article/2651148
Black unemployment falls to second-lowest level on record in February

[SirLinksALot]

Here's the inevitable question -- WHAT IS THE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE? IS IT GOING UP OR NOT?

[SirLinksALot]

[SirLinksALot]

[Bigun]

Wonder what might happen if we pulled ALL the stops out?

http://fairtax.org

[SirLinksALot]

Here's one additional good news -- LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE IS INCREASING

SOURCE: CNBC

URL: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/09/labor-force-increase-is-biggest-since-2003-as-many-americans-finally-get-back-to-work.html

(EXCERPT)

The U.S. economy did more than give jobs to 313,000 in February — it brought nearly three times that amount off the sidelines, where more than 95 million Americans still sit.

Inside the glittering nonfarm payrolls report the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Friday were some even more inspiring numbers. Skilled labor positions surged with big increases in construction and manufacturing, which has seen its best three-month period since 1984.

On a bigger-picture level, there was even more.

The labor force surged by 806,000, the biggest move since September 2003, and now sits just below 162 million. That's due to 653,000 people no longer counted as being out of the labor force and a growth of 785,000 folks reporting to be at work, according to the government's household survey. The labor force participation rate rose to 63 percent while the employment-to-population ratio rose to 60.4 percent, both the highest since September.

It was all part of a jobs market that continues to defy expectations. Every time economists or officials at the Federal Reserve pronounce the U.S. at "full employment," a report seems to come out indicating that there's still plenty of room for growth.

(EXCERPT) CLICK ABOVE LINK FOR THE REST....

[SirLinksALot]

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/black-unemployment-falls-to-second-lowest-level-on-record-in-february/article/2651148
Black unemployment falls to second-lowest level on record in February

One factor that may be contributing to the uptick in African-American employment - a large competing factor has been suppressed with the flight of undocumented illegals back to their country of origin, or going entirely underground as employment opportunities dry up, mostly as a result of greater use of E-Verify to determine the eligibility of the applicant to actually hold a job.

The undocumented (or fraudulently documented) illegal is the enemy of the American blacks of US citizenship.

[ABX]

LOL. We are still touting the Adjusted U3 numbers that before the election, Trump called a 'fraud' and 'phony' over and over. The current U6 unemployment number (what we used up through Obama changed the reporting in mid-2009) currently is at 8.6%. It is heading in the right direction, but it is not the record low or amazing number that it being touted.

And for fun.... What Trump said about using the Adjusted U-3 (one of many, many similar statements)..

7.8% unemployment number is a complete fraud as evidenced by the jobless claims number released yesterday.Real unemployment is at least 15%

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 19, 2012

[ABX]

Here's the inevitable question -- WHAT IS THE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE? IS IT GOING UP OR NOT?

62.9%. Fairly flat but still overall low and below average for the past 10 or so years.

https://ycharts.com/indicators/labor_force_participation_rate

[Frank Cannon]

Wonder what might happen if we pulled ALL the stops out?

http://fairtax.org

That would be too much prosperity. People can't handle that and this is why I thank God the Govt' is here to temper such madness.

[ABX]

Here's the inevitable question -- WHAT IS THE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE? IS IT GOING UP OR NOT?

Updated. Here is the 10 year Labor Force Participation Rate chart.



https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000

[RoosGirl]

In short, the latest figures conflict with claims that the country is at "full employment." At full employment, it would be expected that job gains would peter out and wage increases would start accelerating quickly. The opposite has been the case.

Besides that, how does the economy add 313k jobs and the unemployment rate not move?

[Frank Cannon]

Besides that, how does the economy add 313k jobs and the unemployment rate not move?

The inverse of the hypotenuses is not divergent with the ratio.

[ABX]

Besides that, how does the economy add 313k jobs and the unemployment rate not move?

Because they are using Adjusted U-3 numbers that Trump himself called phony when he was running.

[InHeavenThereIsNoBeer]

Besides that, how does the economy add 313k jobs and the unemployment rate not move?

The labor force is not static.

Half to 2/3 of those jobs are needed just to keep up with population growth.

Boomers not retiring at a "normal" age, and a bunch of Millenials coming out of their parents' basements and getting jobs, for example, count account for some/all of the rest.

[GrouchoTex]

Yeah, they still use the U3 number, which doesn't tell the complete story.
However, this news is still good news.

[RoosGirl]

The labor force is not static.

Half to 2/3 of those jobs are needed just to keep up with population growth.

Boomers not retiring at a "normal" age, and a bunch of Millenials coming out of their parents' basements and getting jobs, for example, count account for some/all of the rest.

I'm not sure I buy that completely:

July 2017 - 209,000 jobs added, unemployment rate down to 4.3%
August 2017 - 156,000 jobs added, rate up to 4.4%
September 2017 - 33,000 jobs lost, rate down to 4.2%
October 2017 - 261,000 jobs added, rate down 4.1%
November 2017 - 228,000 jobs added, rate same 4.1%
December 2017 - 148,000 jobs added, rate same 4.1%
January 2018 - 200,000 jobs added, rate same 4.1%
February 2018 - 313,000 jobs added, rate same 4.1%

[InHeavenThereIsNoBeer]

I'm not sure I buy that completely:

July 2017 - 209,000 jobs added, unemployment rate down to 4.3%
August 2017 - 156,000 jobs added, rate up to 4.4%
September 2017 - 33,000 jobs lost, rate down to 4.2%
October 2017 - 261,000 jobs added, rate down 4.1%
November 2017 - 228,000 jobs added, rate same 4.1%
December 2017 - 148,000 jobs added, rate same 4.1%
January 2018 - 200,000 jobs added, rate same 4.1%
February 2018 - 313,000 jobs added, rate same 4.1%

Good, never buy anything in economics completely.  Not a science.  Not even close.

I see a typo in my response about Boomers and Millenials.  I intended to use those examples to show how the unemployment rate could remain constant while a bunch of jobs were added, not that it did.

Roughly, I was trying to point out that the rate can remain constant when the numerator changes if the denominator also changes.

P.S.  Also beware that jobs reports are based on surveys (I THINK BLS is individuals and ADP is businesses, but it's been awhile), are always revised (twice, once each in the following months IIRC), and the revisions are often substantial.  And you may want to consider whether you're looking at the raw or "seasonally adjusted" numbers.