Peak oil demand, a theory with many doubters

[thackney]

Peak oil demand, a theory with many doubters
https://www.chron.com/business/energy/article/Peak-oil-demand-a-theory-with-many-doubters-12729734.php
 March 6, 2018

...Helen Currie, the chief economist at Conoco Phillips, said her company had modeled electric car demand and other factors and "struggled with finding a peak," "anytime within the next 20 to 30 years," during a panel at the IHS Markit CERAWeek energy conference in Houston Monday.

"We readily acknowledge it's plausible, but we really tend to see oil demand being fairly strong and robust," she said.

The concept of peak oil demand has overtaken the oil world since last summer when Shell CEO Ben van Beurden predicted oil demand would peak within a decade. BP joined the chorus last month, though predicting it would take 20 years...

...The difference in how oil companies predict the future largely boils down to whether or not they are bullish on electric vehicles and governments' commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, said Neil Atkinson, the head of the International Energy Association's oil industry and markets division....

[catfish1957]

I'd like a $ for every duped denizen who thinks driving an electric car is good for the environment.

I guess they think those generated KW's were magically produced with fairy dust.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

Peak oil demand, a theory with many doubters
https://www.chron.com/business/energy/article/Peak-oil-demand-a-theory-with-many-doubters-12729734.php
 March 6, 2018

...Helen Currie, the chief economist at Conoco Phillips, said her company had modeled electric car demand and other factors and "struggled with finding a peak," "anytime within the next 20 to 30 years," during a panel at the IHS Markit CERAWeek energy conference in Houston Monday.

"We readily acknowledge it's plausible, but we really tend to see oil demand being fairly strong and robust," she said.

The concept of peak oil demand has overtaken the oil world since last summer when Shell CEO Ben van Beurden predicted oil demand would peak within a decade. BP joined the chorus last month, though predicting it would take 20 years...

...The difference in how oil companies predict the future largely boils down to whether or not they are bullish on electric vehicles and governments' commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, said Neil Atkinson, the head of the International Energy Association's oil industry and markets division....

I really see nothing to correlate electric vehicles and whether oil will be in demand.

This is misleading to suggest electric vehicles do not require electricity generation using fossil fuels.

[thackney]

I really see nothing to correlate electric vehicles and whether oil will be in demand.

This is misleading to suggest electric vehicles do not require electricity generation using fossil fuels.

Very little oil is used for electrical generation.  Electrical Vehicles would be moving the energy demand from oil to other sources.

[Bigun]

I really see nothing to correlate electric vehicles and whether oil will be in demand.

This is misleading to suggest electric vehicles do not require electricity generation using fossil fuels.

It is an entirely false dichotomy!

[IsailedawayfromFR]

Very little oil is used for electrical generation.  Electrical Vehicles would be moving the energy demand from oil to other sources.

Only holds true if electric vehicles are more than a minuscle amount of the total transportation modes of this country.

That scenario is unlikely.

Last time I looked, only a little over a million electric cars are on the road in the world, compared to a billion gasoline and diesel vehicles.

[thackney]

Only holds true if electric vehicles are more than a minuscle amount of the total transportation modes of this country.

That scenario is unlikely.

Last time I looked, only a little over a million electric cars are on the road in the world, compared to a billion gasoline and diesel vehicles.

The global electric car stock surpassed 2 million vehicles in 2016 after crossing the 1 million
threshold in 2015 (Figure 1).
https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/GlobalEVOutlook2017.pdf
page 5

Keep in mind a few items.

This article wasn't talking about taking over the oil consumption, but when the growth of oil consumption would finally reach a peak.

This article is about world-wide oil consumption, not the US.

And primarily, this article was expressing doubt that this peak would happen as early as a few predicted.

I do believe there will be a peak oil demand (and related supply).  I don't believe it will happen in my lifetime.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

The global electric car stock surpassed 2 million vehicles in 2016 after crossing the 1 million
threshold in 2015 (Figure 1).
https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/GlobalEVOutlook2017.pdf
page 5

Keep in mind a few items.

This article wasn't talking about taking over the oil consumption, but when the growth of oil consumption would finally reach a peak.

This article is about world-wide oil consumption, not the US.

And primarily, this article was expressing doubt that this peak would happen as early as a few predicted.

I do believe there will be a peak oil demand (and related supply).  I don't believe it will happen in my lifetime.

There's where we differ. I tend to be tuned into the resource amounts on a domestic and worldwide basis.

I believe peak oil production in the US will take place during the next decade, and on a worldwide basis, will be some time after that, certainly(God willing) during my expected lifetime.

The decline in crude oil availability will be supplanted by the tremendous vast amounts of natural gas which is increasing at far greater rates than is crude oil.  Some of this gas will be converted to liquids to support this decline in crude used for transportation primarily.

[Fishrrman]

thackney wrote:
"Very little oil is used for electrical generation.  Electrical Vehicles would be moving the energy demand from oil to other sources"

Long term, I'll reckon that the coal industry will realize the greatest benefit from electric car growth...