Russia’s pragmatic plans for the Middle East

[TomSea]

Opinion
Zaid M. Belbagi | Published — Thursday 1 March 2018
Russia’s pragmatic plans for the Middle East

Last December, Russian President Vladimir Putin made a surprise visit to the Hmeimim air base in Syria and triumphantly announced mission accomplished for Russian forces combatting Daesh. During the accompanying photo opportunity, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu ushered Syrian President Bashar Assad out of sight; this was Putin’s moment and he, for all intents and purposes, is Assad’s master. With Russian ambitions in Lebanon becoming clearer and significant relationships with both Iran and Saudi Arabia, how the Kremlin’s Middle East policy develops is of great interest.

Two-and-a-half years since Russia’s military involvement in Syria began, it is clear that the region has remained a focus of Moscow. However, in the absence of a long-term regional strategy, Russian engagement remains transactional and pragmatic. It is necessary to look at the wider geopolitical, economic and diplomatic facets to Russia’s policies to understand the nature, extent and limitations of Russian engagement in the Middle East.

A lack of US commitment to the region has not been the only driver of Russian policy. Early on in his time in office, Putin made several key regional visits, becoming the first Russian leader to visit Israel and the UAE. Since then, Russia has sought to make itself relevant in the Middle East, taking part in the P5+1 negotiations with Iran, putting forward its own Middle East peace plan and, most recently, hosting a conference in Sochi in direct parallel to UN-sponsored talks aimed at resolving the Syrian crisis. This is a marked change from Soviet policy and indeed Boris Yeltsin’s term. Eager to position itself as a global power, Russia has decided it should play a role in the region and be at the table for key negotiations and decisions.

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