The robots are coming! Technology could replace up to 800mn jobs by 2030, study says

[Free Vulcan]

All the effort you put into studying at university may not have been enough – because robots could be coming for your job. A new study found that as many as 800 million workers could be replaced by technology by 2030.

The study from the McKinsey Global Institute, the research arm of the economic think tank McKinsey & Company, estimates that "between 400 million and 800 million individuals could be displaced by automation and need to find new jobs by 2030 around the world." It estimates that between zero and 30 percent of the hours currently worked globally could be automated by that time.

Read more at: https://www.rt.com/news/411322-robots-replacing-jobs-2030/

[Fishrrman]

Eventually, there may not be too much left for humans to do.

Hope the robots don't evolve technologically to where they acquire "free will".

They may just decide it would serve their interests better to remove the useless human eaters.

Maybe the Luddites will eventually be proven right..  ;)

[Oceander]

And most of those folks will take up jobs that aren’t even thought up yet.

[The_Reader_David]

And most of those folks will take up jobs that aren’t even thought up yet.

I'm afraid not.  The problem is that there will come a point where literally any job that can be done by someone with average or below average intelligence will be able to be done more cheaply and reliably by an AI-driven robot -- including picking soft fruit and prostitution -- along with a goodly number of jobs that require above average intelligence (AI is already better at radiology than board certified radiologists, most of what lawyers do outside courtrooms can be automated, and computers beat the best of us not only at chess, but at go as well...).

The left already has their program for how to adapt to the change, and it looks like a mix of every dystopia you can find in fiction, with Brave New World and A Clockwork Orange topping the list.  We on the right had better figure out a competing program that somehow keeps alive a remnant of the moral order of Christendom when there really aren't jobs for most of humanity.

[Oceander]

I'm afraid not.  The problem is that there will come a point where literally any job that can be done by someone with average or below average intelligence will be able to be done more cheaply and reliably by an AI-driven robot -- including picking soft fruit and prostitution -- along with a goodly number of jobs that require above average intelligence (AI is already better at radiology than board certified radiologists, most of what lawyers do outside courtrooms can be automated, and computers beat the best of us not only at chess, but at go as well...).

The left already has their program for how to adapt to the change, and it looks like a mix of every dystopia you can find in fiction, with Brave New World and A Clockwork Orange topping the list.  We on the right had better figure out a competing program that somehow keeps alive a remnant of the moral order of Christendom when there really aren't jobs for most of humanity.

The same claim was made every time there was a major upheaval before, and the claim turned out to be false.  Pardon me if I don’t take a false claim seriously. 

[Frank Cannon]

[The_Reader_David]

The same claim was made every time there was a major upheaval before, and the claim turned out to be false.  Pardon me if I don’t take a false claim seriously.

Previous technological changes replaced brawn.  AI is replacing brain power. 

[dfwgator]

! No longer available

[thackney]

Previous technological changes replaced brawn.  AI is replacing brain power.

We have had decades of computing replacing brain power.  All it has done in terms of jobs is increase productivity and still employment continues.  Not for everyone in every existing job; people have to continue to advance as well.

[WingNot]

This would solve most of the sexual harassment in the workplace problems.

[Free Vulcan]

I think robots and AI are going to essentially wipe out the middle class down to a barely visible hanger on.

What you will have ultimately are two ownership classes being dominant. One in the rural and one in the urban. Urban being the wealthy elite owners of production, then a small section of very high skilled tech people, then a handful small business owners who cater to them, and finally a little to nothing group of menial laborers where robots can't efficiently function.

The other will be the rural, where you will have families and small communities who are self sufficient, raise/make their own stuff, and live mostly like people in rural areas and small towns have for millennia.

Anyone who doesn't live in one of those classes is SOL.

[driftdiver]

I think robots and AI are going to essentially wipe out the middle class down to a barely visible hanger on.

What you will have ultimately are two ownership classes being dominant. One in the rural and one in the urban. Urban being the wealthy elite owners of production, then a small section of very high skilled tech people, then a handful small business owners who cater to them, and finally a little to nothing group of menial laborers where robots can't efficiently function.

The other will be the rural, where you will have families and small communities who are self sufficient, raise/make their own stuff, and live mostly like people in rural areas and small towns have for millennia.

Anyone who doesn't live in one of those classes is SOL.

The rural folks will be going away too.   The economies in rural America simply wont be supported and most people will have to move to cities.  As it is the population shift over the last 40 years has been substantial.

[Free Vulcan]

The rural folks will be going away too.   The economies in rural America simply wont be supported and most people will have to move to cities.  As it is the population shift over the last 40 years has been substantial.

There will be a number of robotized farms, but there I think will be a substantial group that essentially takes care of themselves, raises and makes what they need, and works within local economies bartering goods and labor.

[Fishrrman]

thackney wrote:
"Not for everyone in every existing job; people have to continue to advance as well."

There's a problem here.
AI is "advancing" by leaps and bounds, as is automation and the tasks that computers can do.

But human IQ is not "advancing" -- it remains a fixed "bell curve".
How are those who fall into the left side of this curve going to "advance" ??

[Suppressed]

What you will have ultimately are two ownership classes being dominant.

@Free Vulcan

Two of George H.W. Bush's proposals would have overturned much of liberalism in America.

One was removing the withholding requirement, so people saw what they actually paid in Federal taxes.

The second was his idea of an Ownership Society.  Extending from that is that ownership of the production will be the only way to wealth in the future, as you say.  Only the backward-looking think that it's "jobs".

It's too bad these ideas never flew. 

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

I'm afraid not.  The problem is that there will come a point where literally any job that can be done by someone with average or below average intelligence will be able to be done more cheaply and reliably by an AI-driven robot -- including picking soft fruit and prostitution -- along with a goodly number of jobs that require above average intelligence (AI is already better at radiology than board certified radiologists, most of what lawyers do outside courtrooms can be automated, and computers beat the best of us not only at chess, but at go as well...).

The left already has their program for how to adapt to the change, and it looks like a mix of every dystopia you can find in fiction, with Brave New World and A Clockwork Orange topping the list.  We on the right had better figure out a competing program that somehow keeps alive a remnant of the moral order of Christendom when there really aren't jobs for most of humanity.

If robots become that advanced, won't they also be available for home purchase as well?

There may be increasingly less jobs but also you won't have to spend as much because robots will be doing a lot of the expensive stuff you need to do at home.

[mirraflake]

The rural folks will be going away too.   The economies in rural America simply wont be supported and most people will have to move to cities.  As it is the population shift over the last 40 years has been substantial.

A+++  I live in rural farm country, 400 people in my town and we are losing population in our county every year. No jobs, no prospects for marriage or relationships for single people, nothing to do etc.

My parents road has 13 houses. 12 of them are owned by people over the age of 70.

All the young people go to college and never return.
25 years ago out little town had 2 banks, 3 gas station, larger grocery store, clothing stores etc now it is down to one small grocery store -gas station combo

@driftdiver

[Suppressed]