Strategy Page
October 17, 2017: North Korea continues refusing demands (from just about everyone) to drop its nuclear weapons program. North Korean officials recently said there could not even be negotiations with the United States until North Korea had developed and tested an ICBM carrying a nuclear weapon that could reach the American east coast. That could mean never, or at least a very long time, because North Korea has bragged more than demonstrated its ability to develop a reliable ICBM armed with an equally reliable nuclear warhead. Meanwhile the North Korean economy very visibly continues to deteriorate while corruption, especially within the security forces, grows. At the same time the United States after decades of ignoring or trying (unsuccessfully) to placate North Korea is now trying the North Korean approach (lots of threats and demonstrations of force) and the North Korean leaders do not like it and appear to have no effective response. That means the North Korean leaders are made to look foolish and weak to their own people. This is not a good thing when you are running a police state. The longer North Korea does nothing to act on its growing list of threats the worse it looks to its own people and the world.
North Korean leaders, especially the latest member of the Kim dynasty, apparently never expected to face a situation like this. Worse the Kim crowd does not appear to have practical strategy for extracting themselves from this mess. Worst case, for the neighbors (especially South Korea, Japan and China) is that North Korea tries another military show of force and it escalates. There is general agreement that this would be the end for the Kim dynasty and their key supporters. But while that is happening North Korea might actually use some of the forbidden weapons like nukes or chemicals (nerve gas and so on). Even if not effective they would be destructive, if only near where they were launched from. Same with the legendary (and apparently real enough to be dangerous) arsenal or artillery and rockets (mostly unguided) aimed at the South Korean capital and positioned in bunkers just north of the DMZ that separates the two Koreas. Some North Korean soldiers would fight but many would (or could) not because of years of growing shortages. That now includes food and fuel for lighting and heating their barracks.
https://www.strategypage.com/qnd/korea/20171017.aspx
