North Korea Crisis Live Thread - Latest NK Updates

[Smokin Joe]

All the fly bys seem to be doing is aggravating the situation.   Kim either thinks we won't do anything or he doesn't care.

There are entangling alliances on both sides. South Korea/US/Japan/NATO on one side, China North Korea, Russia, Iran on the other. That's why the Archduke Ferdinand remark. The potential is there for this to escalate rapidly. That's why little Kim is so smug.

[thackney]

All the fly bys seem to be doing is aggravating the situation.   Kim either thinks we won't do anything or he doesn't care.

Or maybe nobody around him will tell it has happened?

[driftdiver]

Or maybe nobody around him will tell it has happened?

@thackney
Very Possible

[edpc]

This may explain why we have not shot down the past two launch is over Japan. The headline is a little misleading. It's not that we can't at all, we just can't fire at the missile when its apogee is beyond the defense system.

No, We Cannot Shoot Down North Korea’s Missiles



The number one reason we don’t shoot down North Korea’s missiles is that we cannot.

Officials like to reassure their publics about our defense to these missiles. Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga told his nation after last week’s test, “We didn’t intercept it because no damage to Japanese territory was expected.”

That is half true. The missile did not pose a serious threat. It flew over the Japanese island of Hokkaido, landing 3700 km (2300 miles) from its launch point near North Korea’s capital of Pyongyang.

The key word here is “over.” Like way over. Like 770 kilometers (475 miles) over Japan at the apogee of its flight path. Neither Japan nor the United States could have intercepted the missile. None of the theater ballistic missile defense weapons in existence can reach that high. It is hundreds of kilometers too high for the Aegis interceptors deployed on Navy ships off Japan. Even higher for the THAAD systems in South Korea and Guam. Way too high for the Patriot systems in Japan, which engage largely within the atmosphere.

http://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2017/09/no-we-cannot-shoot-down-north-koreas-missiles/141070/

[Sanguine]

Great....

[edpc]

Great....

Well, the target area of the missile was so far out to sea and over Japan, the system could not engage it. It's a completely different story, if the trajectory had fallen within the system radius, which is large enough to protect the territory.  A ship a few hundred miles off the Japanese East Coast could do it, but what is the point?

Questions keep popping up as to why we don't intercept these launches. This may answer why. It would be like asking the pitcher to catch a shallow fly ball when the outfielder is in a much better position.

[TomSea]

I've heard in a few places, we just don't want to display our technology, we do not care to show them (China, Russia, etc.) what we have. I don't know if that is so, I read quite a bit on this subject.

[Oceander]

I've heard in a few places, we just don't want to display our technology, we do not care to show them (China, Russia, etc.) what we have. I don't know if that is so, I read quite a bit on this subject.

That makes a lot of sense.  And NK may be partly trying to goad the US of Japan into shooting one down as a way of forcing us to show what we have. 

[driftdiver]

And what were both of those navy ships involved in those collisions?

Ageis missile systems.

[edpc]

That makes a lot of sense.  And NK may be partly trying to goad the US of Japan into shooting one down as a way of forcing us to show what we have.

They have no way of gathering data on our ABM capabilities.  The Russians and Chinese, however, can and would love to get their hands on the information.  I'm confident the missiles can be intercepted, because we have worked with the Israelis to develop their Arrow and Iron Dome systems.  Arrow has successfully intercepted Syrian SAMs, which are smaller and more maneuverable than ballistic missiles.

[Oceander]

They have no way of gathering data on our ABM capabilities.  The Russians and Chinese, however, can and would love to get their hands on the information.  I'm confident the missiles can be intercepted, because we have worked with the Israelis to develop their Arrow and Iron Dome systems.  Arrow has successfully intercepted Syrian SAMs, which are smaller and more maneuverable than ballistic missiles.

Once it flies, data becomes available; maybe not the full telemetry, but something that lets our foes know what our systems are capable of (and, perhaps more importantly, what they're not capable of).

[driftdiver]

They have no way of gathering data on our ABM capabilities.  The Russians and Chinese, however, can and would love to get their hands on the information.  I'm confident the missiles can be intercepted, because we have worked with the Israelis to develop their Arrow and Iron Dome systems.  Arrow has successfully intercepted Syrian SAMs, which are smaller and more maneuverable than ballistic missiles.

I'd wager the Chinese already know.  They had an engineer on the b2 program.

He'll when I was going thru air force school they had a Chinese spy.  They've been at it a long time.

[TomSea]

Mattis: No Need to Shoot Down North Korean Missiles Yet

Defense Secretary Jim Mattis says the U.S. has not yet shot down any North Korean missiles because they have not posed a threat to the United States or its allies.

In remarks to reporters at the Pentagon, Mattis said Monday that if the missiles were perceived as a threat, "that would elicit a different response from us.''

Asked what that response is likely to be, Mattis refused to elaborate.

More: https://www.voanews.com/a/us-south-korea-japan-aerial-military-exercises/4033470.html

[TomSea]

Former CIA Chief Warns of N. Korea’s Other Nuclear Weapon 

...

Why is the North continuing its launches? Jenny Lee of VOA Korean spoke with former CIA Director James Woolsey to discuss the latest developments.

...

Q: How likely is it that the Kim regime has developed a functional ICBM and a miniaturized warhead?

A: Probably not fully yet. But it doesn’t matter because they don’t need an intercontinental ballistic missile in order to attack directly the United States. They can do so with a satellite launch and [they] have nuclear weapons contained in the satellite that continues to circle the Earth a couple of times a day. ... So it does not take an intercontinental ballistic missile to reach the United States. You can do it fine with a weapon on a satellite.

Q: You seem to be describing a nuclear electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attack. Could you describe how it works, and do you think the North Koreans currently have the capacity to carry out such an attack?

A: I think it’s likely that they do. The destructive mechanism would be, it would not go directly against people, but would destroy the electric grid. It uses a detonation up above the Earth. It would not be targeted at a specific location, a specific building or an ICBM silo or something. It would knock out the grid generally. That means there would be no food, no water, no telecommunications and no hospitals. It would be a hideous situation. So that could be even more devastating than a nuclear attack that was targeted on individual locations.

More: https://www.voanews.com/a/james-woolsey-warns-of-north-koreas-other-nuclear-weapon/4031550.html

More discussion and more talk about EMP attacks, understandable for the layman. Not sure if this was already posted, I know I've read this already.

[edpc]

Once it flies, data becomes available; maybe not the full telemetry, but something that lets our foes know what our systems are capable of (and, perhaps more importantly, what they're not capable of).

North Korea has antiquated Soviet radar equipment. They're not capable of seeing very far out beyond their economic exclusion zone. The only way they would know if a missile got intercepted is if they heard about it on CNN.

[Smokin Joe]

North Korea has antiquated Soviet radar equipment. They're not capable of seeing very far out beyond their economic exclusion zone. The only way they would know if a missile got intercepted is if they heard about it on CNN.

The Russians and the Chinese each have spy ships The Chinese have six known Type 815 ships that are active (dedicated spy ships) and several dozen other active surface combatants which may or may not be able to track the missile along its entire flight path. The Russians have two spy ships active with their Pacific fleet, and two with their northern fleet.

Someone somewhere would be able to get enough data to get a fair idea of the capability if demonstrated. While there may be some distrust or friction among them, "former Communist" powers share data with the DPRK, and the Iranians have a fair idea of Israeli capabilities.

[edpc]

The Russians and the Chinese each have spy ships The Chinese have six known Type 815 ships that are active (dedicated spy ships) and several dozen other active surface combatants which may or may not be able to track the missile along its entire flight path. The Russians have two spy ships active with their Pacific fleet, and two with their northern fleet.

Someone somewhere would be able to get enough data to get a fair idea of the capability if demonstrated. While there may be some distrust or friction among them, "former Communist" powers share data with the DPRK, and the Iranians have a fair idea of Israeli capabilities.

Based on what we can interpret from the Defense One article, the missile would only be engaged if the telemetry data shows it to be a threat.  That would lead to a response and there'd be no ranking NK personnel left to make use of the data.

[Smokin Joe]

Based on what we can interpret from the Defense One article, the missile would only be engaged if the telemetry data shows it to be a threat.  That would lead to a response and there'd be no ranking NK personnel left to make use of the data.

That makes sense to me. Why engage a spent round if it isn't a threat? That missile won't hurt anything if it won't hurt anything, so let it go.

[edpc]

That makes sense to me. Why engage a spent round if it isn't a threat? That missile won't hurt anything if it won't hurt anything, so let it go.

You're also guaranteeing a failure if the apogee is outside your protection envelope.  In that instance, you're giving away data on response time and interceptor performance, plus giving the population a false sense of INsecurity.

[edpc]

North Korea may consider H-bomb test in Pacific, Kim calls Trump 'deranged'


SEOUL/NEW YORK (Reuters) - North Korea said on Friday it might test a hydrogen bomb over the Pacific Ocean after U.S. President Donald Trump vowed to destroy the reclusive country, with leader Kim Jong Un promising to make a "mentally deranged" Trump pay dearly for his threats.

Kim did not specify what action he would take against the United States or Trump, with whom he has traded insults in recent weeks. South Korea said it was the first direct statement of its kind by a North Korean leader.

However, Kim's foreign minister, Ri Yong Ho, said in televised remarks North Korea could consider a hydrogen bomb test of an unprecedented scale over the Pacific Ocean.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/north-koreas-kim-says-deranged-trump-pay-dearly-011025885.html

[driftdiver]

My family in SK expect this to end in war. 

[edpc]

RUSSIA: U.S. WAR WITH NORTH KOREA 'IS NOT AN OPTION'


One of Russia's highest-ranking diplomats warned Thursday that a U.S. attack on North Korea would have serious repercussions across the globe and stressed his country's opposition to such a move. He wasn't alone.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov and officials from multiple countries around the world are rejecting President Donald Trump's promise Wednesday to "totally destroy" North Korea. Trump's fiery U.N. speech came after months of mounting tensions between his administration and an increasingly bellicose, nuclear-capable North Korea, led by Kim Jong Un. While Russia has also criticized Kim's nuclear ambitions and routine ballistic missile tests, Gatilov emphasized that Moscow would not stand for a direct U.S. assault on North Korea—something Trump's administration has repeatedly touted as a possibility.

http://www.newsweek.com/russia-us-war-north-korea-not-option-669127?utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=yahoo_news&utm_campaign=rss&utm_content=/rss/yahoous/news&yptr=yahoo

[driftdiver]

RUSSIA: U.S. WAR WITH NORTH KOREA 'IS NOT AN OPTION'


One of Russia's highest-ranking diplomats warned Thursday that a U.S. attack on North Korea would have serious repercussions across the globe and stressed his country's opposition to such a move. He wasn't alone.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov and officials from multiple countries around the world are rejecting President Donald Trump's promise Wednesday to "totally destroy" North Korea. Trump's fiery U.N. speech came after months of mounting tensions between his administration and an increasingly bellicose, nuclear-capable North Korea, led by Kim Jong Un. While Russia has also criticized Kim's nuclear ambitions and routine ballistic missile tests, Gatilov emphasized that Moscow would not stand for a direct U.S. assault on North Korea—something Trump's administration has repeatedly touted as a possibility.

http://www.newsweek.com/russia-us-war-north-korea-not-option-669127?utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=yahoo_news&utm_campaign=rss&utm_content=/rss/yahoous/news&yptr=yahoo

Russia helped start the first Korean war.

[edpc]

Russia helped start the first Korean war.

Most definitely.  They're directly responsible for installing Kim Il Sung.  Their pilots flew MiG-15s against our B-29s and F-86s.

[driftdiver]

Most definitely.  They're directly responsible for installing Kim Il Sung.  Their pilots flew MiG-15s against our B-29s and F-86s.

They are probably providing significant technical and material support for his nuke program.   I'm guessing its for the money since Russia has been hurt by the fall in oil prices.   NKs rapid advancement in their nuclear and rocket programs is simply too fast for it to be done internally.  You couldn't manufacture the rockets this fast let alone do the design and testing which would be required.