North Korea probably couldn't nuke the US military in Guam even if it tried

[edpc]

After strong words from President Donald Trump promising "fire and fury" in response to continued threats from Pyongyang, North Korea threatened to launch a nuclear-missile attack on the US military in Guam.

But North Korea mentioned a specific missile, the Hwasong-12, that it has tested just once, and an expert contacted by Business Insider says hitting the US military in Guam would be easier said than done.

"No one, not even the North Koreans, knows the CEP of the HS-12," Mike Elleman, the senior fellow for missile defense at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told Business Insider, referring to circular error probable, or the distance by which a missile can be expected to miss its target.

"Having said that, we can guesstimate a minimum CEP from first principles," Elleman said. Essentially, even a small task like cutting off the engines a fraction of a second too late can make the missile go miles off course.

"All told, the CEP will be greater than 5 km," Elleman said. (Five kilometers is equal to about 3 miles.) "But this is a very rough estimate. Given the paucity of flight tests, I suspect if used today, the HS-12 would have a CEP considerably larger than 5 km, perhaps 10 km, or more."

While Andersen Air Force Base, the home of the strategic bombers North Korea expressly wanted to target, spans about 35 miles across, North Korea would have greater problems than accuracy.

The massive blast radius caused by a nuclear device, which North Korea, according to news reports this week, is believed to have perfected and miniaturized to deliver on missiles, could make up for a lack of accuracy. But serious questions remain around North Korea's ability to build vehicles to reenter the planet's atmosphere through tremendous pressure and friction. The only test of the Hwasong-12 was done on a lofted trajectory and not a realistic, flatter curve.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/north-korea-probably-couldnt-nuke-140818479.html

[edpc]

The massive blast radius caused by a nuclear device, which North Korea, according to news reports this week, is believed to have perfected and miniaturized to deliver on missiles, could make up for a lack of accuracy.

Only if the weapon had significant yield.  So far, their tests have been at Hiroshima yield levels or lower.  That weapon had a total/major destruction (except for reinforced buildings) of about 1 mile.  They have other technical deficiencies to overcome, but accuracy is the most complex.

[NavyCanDo]

What does it matter if it hit the target or not?  Just the news of it being fired at a target, and that KIM is serious abot tàking on the U.S.  would send shock waves up and down Wall Street.

[HonestJohn]

What does this have to do with North Korea's threat to launch four missiles to land off the coast of Guam?

They never said the missiles would have any warheads at all.

It's a show of force.  A test flight to show that they could if they wanted to.  Much like us flying B-1 bombers up to the DMZ shows that we could bomb the ever-living **** out of the North.

Perhaps we should ask them to actually fire their missiles, saying that we'd be happy to receive a functional one of their missiles to study...

[edpc]

What does this have to do with North Korea's threat to launch four missiles to land off the coast of Guam?

They never said the missiles would have any warheads at all.

SEOUL—North Korea, in a second day of unusually blunt and specific threats aimed at the U.S., lashed out at President Donald Trump and warned its missiles could surround the U.S. territory of Guam in an “enveloping fire” in coming weeks.

[ABX]

I'm far more worried about fallout in the region from even a miss than I am their accuracy for a direct hit.

[HonestJohn]

SEOUL—North Korea, in a second day of unusually blunt and specific threats aimed at the U.S., lashed out at President Donald Trump and warned its missiles could surround the U.S. territory of Guam in an “enveloping fire” in coming weeks.

That's a term for how artillery fire is launched.  It's where the shells hit all around the target.

[edpc]

That's a term for how artillery fire is launched.  It's where the shells hit all around the target

“The KPA strategic force is now carefully examining the operational plan for making an enveloping fire at the areas around Guam with medium-to long-range strategic ballistic rocket Hwasong-12 in order to contain the US major military bases on Guam, including the Anderson airforce base,” the spokesman said.

Their statement is a bit more specific, however infeasible.

[HonestJohn]

“The KPA strategic force is now carefully examining the operational plan for making an enveloping fire at the areas around Guam with medium-to long-range strategic ballistic rocket Hwasong-12 in order to contain the US major military bases on Guam, including the Anderson airforce base,” the spokesman said.

Their statement is a bit more specific, however infeasible.

If you look at the Asian papers. the North Koreans stated the missiles would impact off the coast of Guam.  Not Guam itself.

'Enveloping' Guam.

[edpc]

If you look at the Asian papers. the North Koreans stated the missiles would impact off the coast of Guam.  Not Guam itself.

'Enveloping' Guam.

That is the full statement they gave. Most news sources are excerpting it, but that was the whole text, listed in the UK paper The Guardian.  Given they have previously and repeatedly threatened to turn Seoul into 'a sea of fire' and the US/South Korea into 'ashes,'  I doubt they're suddenly into the finer points of word usage.

[HonestJohn]

That is the full statement they gave. Most news sources are excerpting it, but that was the whole text, listed in the UK paper The Guardian.  Given they have previously and repeatedly threatened to turn Seoul into 'a sea of fire' and the US/South Korea into 'ashes,'  I doubt they're suddenly into the finer points of word usage.

Just read their KCNA.

Here's a link to their Japan hosted mirror server: www.kcna.co.jp/index-e.htm

Enveloping fire is a specific military term with specific wording in North Korean parlance... and they used it.

And it means only one thing.

[berdie]

What does it matter if it hit the target or not?  Just the news of it being fired at a target, and that KIM is serious abot tàking on the U.S.  would send shock waves up and down Wall Street.

That's the truth. He's provocative. And hopefully his short man, bad haircut syndrome doesn't become a problem.

[TomSea]

Wall Street Journal is reporting that North Korea has "backed off" of the threat towards Guam.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/north-korea-backs-off-guam-missile-attack-threat-1502751054

There is the webpage, it has a paywall but we have the basic message.

[edpc]

Wall Street Journal is reporting that North Korea has "backed off" of the threat towards Guam.

Joke threat from the beginning.  They know they can't realistically calculate the trajectory and get the guidance to land missiles within a reasonable CEP to do it.