Trump warns N. Korea it will face 'fire and fury'

[edpc]

Try this on for size:  http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/could-north-korea-annihilate-seoul-its-artillery-20345

They apparently have about 700 pieces that could reach that far.

Thanks for supporting what I said.  Try THIS on for size from the SAME article.  Did you bother to read it or just cherry pick?

A 2011 study by the Nautilus Institute throws a considerable amount of cold water on this scenario. While the sheer number of artillery tubes could theoretically kill a large number of civilians, operational issues complicate matters and push the number of civilian casualties greatly downward. Despite the thousands of artillery pieces, only 700 heavier guns and rocket launchers, plus the newer 300-millimeter MRLs, have the range to strike Seoul. Only a third would normally be fired at once, and notional rates of fire would be slowed tremendously by the need to withdraw guns into their hardened artillery sites (HARTS) to shelter them from counter battery fire.

Other factors reduce the projected loss of life in the greater Seoul metropolitan area. The city has extensive air raid shelters for civilians that will quickly reduce the exposed population density. The North will struggle to keep these heavy artillery units supplied with shells, particularly with its aging supply system. Finally, U.S. and ROK forces will quickly begin hunting down units participating in the bombardment, causing their numbers to drop almost immediately.

[montanajoe]

Said by someone who can read a map and knows places like Bucheon and Uijeongbu aren't Seoul.

 

Hey pal you might want to tuck that map under your arm and see if you can find your way out of your mother's basement...

[edpc]

Uijeongbu isn't Seoul?

Well, technically no.  But if you can point out the greenery separating the two, I'd be happy to entertain your POV.

Got an iPhone?  Take a look at those silly dashes on the maps app that mark the boundary of the city.  The two places I mentioned are outside them.

[Mad Max]

Yes, I mentioned the 170mm gun discussed in the article previously.  It's too cumbersome to be portable and has an extremely low rate of fire - about 2 rounds in 5 minutes with good crews.  The city of Grozny was pounded by Russia in 1999 with heavy weapons unopposed and that still took months to destroy.  Norks won't have anywhere near that time.

Popular Mechanics and Stratfor are more believable and the authority on this. So,  you are implying that Popular Mechanics and other sources are lying? I believe Popular Mechanics and Stratfor. They would be more of an authority on this subject.

http://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a6211/north-korea-conflict-weapons-available/
https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/how-north-korea-would-retaliate

[edpc]

Hey pal you might want to tuck that map under your arm and see if you can find your way out of your mother's basement...

Mom passed away 2 years ago in NC.  I've been a resident of KS for quite some time and I can guarantee my domicile in affluent Johnson County is a hell of a lot nicer than your Ted Kaczinsky hovel.

[Elderberry]

Why North Korea Can’t Flatten Seoul   https://skeptoid.com/blog/2013/03/11/why-north-korea-cant-flatten-seoul/
Posted on March 11, 2013 by Mike Rothschild

In the past few weeks, North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un has been on a run of lunacy nearly unrivaled in the history of the division of Korea. He’s made the news by threatening the US with preemptive nuclear attack, releasing a series of bizarre videos depicting various people and places being engulfed in atomic fire, hanging out with Dennis Rodman and most recently, tearing up the armistice between North and South Korea.

One thing missing from this latest stream of belligerence and provocation is North Korea’s usual blustering about destroying Seoul in a “sea of fire.” This wild claim, a fixture of Kim family ranting for two decades, has become an accepted part of Korean military lore, and is often reprinted by both legitimate and fringe news outlets. It portrays the South Korean capital as held hostage by thousands of North Korean guns and missile batteries (some sources claim as many as 13,000) stationed in the Demilitarized Zone, all of which could open fire at any moment for any reason, unleashing a barrage of death that will flatten the entire city, killing millions in the process.

However, a cursory glance at the facts and figures hiding behind the bombast reveal that not only is this claim wildly overstated, it’s not even possible from a logistical standpoint. Yes, the North could do considerable damage to Seoul, killing thousands of civilians and wrecking buildings all across the city. But it’s a major exaggeration to say they could simply wipe Seoul off the map using conventional artillery and rockets. Why it’s not true is worth taking a closer look at. Please note that the following scenario doesn’t take into account any kind of attack with nuclear or chemical weapons, as there’s just not enough information to guess what North Korea’s true capacity is in those areas, assuming it has any.

A fantastic analysis of North Korea’s military capability http://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-special-reports/mind-the-gap-between-rhetoric-and-reality/ when it comes to attacking Seoul was done last year by security expert and consultant Roger Cavazos. It’s a long and striking piece, written with authoritative expertise and great detail, or as great detail as it’s possible to go into, given we’re talking about a country nicknamed the Hermit Kingdom.

As Cavazos writes, North Korea probably has about 20,000 total artillery pieces, rocket launchers and heavy mortars. But Seoul, 30 kilometers from the DMZ, is out of the range of most of these weapons. The two pieces that would be able to hit Seoul, and which are the cause of such concern, are the M-1978 KOKSAN 170 millimeter self-propelled gun and the MRL240 M-1985 rocket launcher. As with every gun, rocket and spoon in the Korean People’s Army (KPA), there’s no telling how many they really have, where they are and whether or not they work.

Cavazos’ best guess, backed up by data from globalsecurity.org, is that the KPA has around 500 KOKSAN guns and 200 rocket launchers deployed in the DMZ and targeting the South Korean capital. There are probably many more scattered around the country or attached to military units, but the more guns North Korea points at Seoul, the fewer they have to defend the rest of the border. So the total of around 700 “tubes” of artillery ranged on Seoul seems right. And a far cry from “13,000.”

Not all of those guns will be able to fire at the same time, as some will have to be reserved for defensive purposes and others will malfunction. Cavazos estimates that the best case for the KPA is 2/3 of them available for firing at one time. The KOKSAN can fire about four shells per minute in an opening burst, with the MRL being able to launch between 12 and 22 rockets per minute, though these rates of fire wouldn’t be sustainable during a prolonged battle. Assuming optimal function and maximum efficiency, North Korea will be able to drop about 3,600 shells and rockets per minute on Seoul during the opening stage of a bombardment.

Of course, in large-scale military operations, optimal function is rarely attained. Witness the number of duds that will be fired. During North Korea’s shelling of Yeonpyeong Island, on the west coast of South Korea, the KPA fired over 100 rounds, 25% of which failed to go off. This is an astronomically high number, and not at all in keeping with modern artillery technology. If North Korean artillery fails to explode at the same rate it did in 2010, that would reduce the number of hits on Seoul to about 2,700 per minute, leading to Cavazos estimating about 2,800 fatalities for each minute at that rate of fire, assuming the majority of the population of the city is standing in open ground – meaning as many as 64,000 South Koreans could be killed on the first day of any attack.

[Mad Max]

I do not take any information from a source called Skeptoid.Each roughly ten-minute Skeptoid pocast episode focuses on a single issue that is generally pseudoscientific in nature. Transcriptions of the episodes are available on lineand usually fall into one of four categories:

Quackery medical modalities: such as homeopathy, reflexology, detoxification, or chiropractic
Popular cultural misconceptions: such as organic foods, SUVs, and global warming
Urban legends: such as crop circles, the Amityville Horror, the Phoenix Lights, or the Philadelphia Experiment
Religion and mythology: such as creation legends, New Age religions, and concepts of sin.



They believe that global warming is due to man.If they are believable why they are using a podcast instead of using normal mainstream media?


In other words subjects found on Coast-To-Coast.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brian_Dunning_(author)

[montanajoe]

Mom passed away 2 years ago in NC.  I've been a resident of KS for quite some time and I can guarantee my domicile in affluent Johnson County is a hell of a lot nicer than your Ted Kaczinsky hovel.

I was endeavouring to be euphamistic. Claiming that your knowledge of Seoul  based on reading an map and the boundries you see on your iphone is greater than those folks who have actually been there both as a civilian as as a member of the military for many months or years is ridiculous...

I guess I should be more direct...Hey boy get your head out your ass...

[HonestJohn]

Got an iPhone?  Take a look at those silly dashes on the maps app that mark the boundary of the city.  The two places I mentioned are outside them.

I said greenery.  Arbitrary lines in the middle of an urban jungle doesn't make for a separate city, any more than Brooklyn is not part of New York City.

[edpc]

Claiming that your knowledge of Seoul based on reading an map and the boundries you see on your iphone is greater than those folks who have actually been there for many months or years is ridiculous...

Lines on a current map are facts.  I've spent a long time in the KC area.  I'm guessing you haven't.  However, if I told you Olathe was KC, you'd be correct in saying I was wrong.

[edpc]

Arbitrary lines in the middle of an urban jungle doesn't make for a separate city

Can you be my advocate the next time I file my taxes or apply for zoning permits?  Nevermind, it only sounded good for a microsecond.

[edpc]

Popular Mechanics and Stratfor are more believable and the authority on this. So,  you are implying that Popular Mechanics and other sources are lying? I believe Popular Mechanics and Stratfor. They would be more of an authority on this subject.

http://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a6211/north-korea-conflict-weapons-available/
https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/how-north-korea-would-retaliate

Did you not read you own source material?  The Stratfor article discusses the limits of their artillery effectiveness, which is entirely my point.

[Mad Max]

Did you not read you own source material?  The Stratfor article discusses the limits of their artillery effectiveness, which is entirely my point.

Popular Mechanics said this:

Long-range artillery

The 170mm (6.7") self-propelled gun, designated M1978 or M1987 is also an NK special, thought to have been derived from 1950's Russian coastal guns. The long-barreled weapon is mounted on a tank chassis, and can fire a rocket-assisted shell out to forty miles. When they were introduced in the 1978 they were claimed to have the longest range of any artillery piece in the world. The later version, first seen by Western analysts in 1987 and therefore called the M1987, carries 12 rounds of ammunition on board. The gun is externally mounted, leaving the crew exposed. The North Koreans exported these to Iran, where they saw use during the Iran-Iraq war; like the 240mm rocket launcher, they guns are made by North Korea's Third Machine Industry Bureau.

Bunkers

The North Korean military has long understood that fortified bunkers are the key to survival in the face of superior enemy air power. There are thousands of hardened underground bunkers close to the front line, and North Korean artillery will carry out "shoot and scoot" attacks, emerging briefly to fire and withdrawing rapidly. According to a RAND study, a multiple rocket launcher can be back under cover within 75 seconds of firing, according to a study by the Rand corporation

Stratfor said this:

The 170mm (6.7") self-propelled gun, designated M1978 or M1987 is also an NK special, thought to have been derived from 1950's Russian coastal guns. The long-barreled weapon is mounted on a tank chassis, and can fire a rocket-assisted shell out to forty miles. When they were introduced in the 1978 they were claimed to have the longest range of any artillery piece in the world. The later version, first seen by Western analysts in 1987 and therefore called the M1987, carries 12 rounds of ammunition on board. The gun is externally mounted, leaving the crew exposed. The North Koreans exported these to Iran, where they saw use during the Iran-Iraq war; like the 240mm rocket launcher, they guns are made by North Korea's Third Machine Industry Bureau.

To me, this a severe threat according to Popular Mechanics it has been modernized.The Pentagon knows its a threat and they must take them out immediately.

[NavyCanDo]

It's BS.  Their capabilities are being vastly overhyped by them and overrated by the news.  Their guidance couldn't hit Guam and their re-entry vehicle can't make it here without burning up.  The last one flared out on steep re-entry.  The shallow angle required to reach CONUS would put it under more stress.

It doesnt have to reach us to start a nuclear or non nuclear  retaliation.....followed by what  God knows. Just shot at us is enough to unleash Hell.

[Mad Max]

Did you not read you own source material?  The Stratfor article discusses the limits of their artillery effectiveness, which is entirely my point.

It may be limited but they make it up with numbers. How would you feel when there is 12,000 artillery pieces pointed at one target, which is Seoul?

[attachment deleted by admin]

[edpc]

It may be limited but they make it up with numbers. How would you feel when there is 12,000 artillery pieces pointed at one target, which is Seoul?

It matters if they had 12K of the pieces shown in the graphic, but they don't, do they?

[Mad Max]

It matters if they had 12K of the pieces shown in the graphic, but they don't, do they?

Don;t be silly. How are you going to put that many on a map. I am willing to bet the Pentagon has all the positions of the artillery pieces in a database. Its only a representation. But this may help a little.

[attachment deleted by admin]

[edpc]

Don;t be silly. How are you going to put that many on a map. I am willing to bet the Pentagon has all the positions of the artillery pieces in a database. Its only a representation. But this may help a little.

 



Why don't you read what I said and try again.

[Mad Max]

Why don't you read what I said and try again.

I guess you did not see the map of the suspected sites which are "hardened". The mobile ones would be hard to find because you can hide it underneath a net. I will publish it again for you to refresh your memory.



[attachment deleted by admin]

[edpc]

They don't have a total of 12K of that type.  The 240mm rocket and 170mm gun are the only ones that can reach Seoul.  It's a fraction of their inventory and their limitations have been pointed out in other posts here.

[Mad Max]

 

They don't have a total of 12K of that type.  The 240mm rocket and 170mm gun are the only ones that can reach Seoul.  It's a fraction of their inventory and their limitations have been pointed out in other posts here.

 The exact spots are probably in a database somewhere. Unless you have access to that database and share it with us.  I am going with Popular Mechanics and Stratfor which have much more credibility in regards to this subject.

[Mad Max]

 The exact spots are probably in a database somewhere. Unless you have access to that database and share it with us.  I am going with Popular Mechanics and Stratfor which have much more credibility in regards to this subject.

You may want to read "Nuclear Showdown with North Korea" which goes into this subject even moire

[edpc]

The exact spots are probably in a database somewhere. Unless you have access to that database and share it with us.

The exact spots are irrelevant. The fact of the matter is they don't have enough pieces that have the proper range to reach Seoul from behind the DMZ.  They have 12-13K artillery pieces total.  Of that, about 700 can reach Seoul.  Those were the ones listed in your original picture -- 170mm gun and 240mm rockets.

[Mad Max]

The exact spots are relevant. The fact of the matter is they don't have enough pieces that have the proper range to reach Seoul from behind the DMZ.  They have 12-13K artillery pieces total.  Of that, about 700 can reach Seoul.  Those were the ones listed in your original picture -- 170mm gun and 240mm rockets.

Do not be silly. Those exact targets are probably so far up classified level that the President,the Joint Cheifs of Staff,ROK Army heads,and the Pentagon has them. The Pentagon can relay them to wither the Navy where they can launch cruise missiles are the USAF where they can take them out with a surgical strike. I am willing to bet the President  has probably been briefed on this with this along with his daily briefings on the state of the world.

[edpc]

I am going with Popular Mechanics and Stratfor which have much more credibility in regards to this subject.

If you're going to place your faith in Stratfor, you may actually want to read what they said.  PM has stated similar analysis in their articles on the subject.

The North Korean military's most powerful tool is artillery. It cannot level Seoul as some reports have claimed, but it could do significant damage. Pyongyang risks deteriorating its forces by exposing them to return fire, however, which significantly restricts their use. Less conventional methods of retaliation, such as sabotage or cyber warfare, are less risky but also limit the shock that North Korea would desire.

After a strike, North Korea's most immediate and expected method of retaliation would center around conventional artillery. Many of the North's indirect fire systems are already located on or near the border with South Korea. By virtue of proximity and simplicity, these systems have a lower preparatory and response times than air assets, larger ballistic missiles or naval assets. Nevertheless, there are several critical limitations to their effectiveness.

Tube and Rocket Artillery

The biggest anticipated cost of a North Korean artillery barrage in response to an attack would be the at least partial destruction of Seoul. But the volume of fire that the North can direct against the South Korean capital is limited by some important factors. Of the vast artillery force deployed by the North along the border, only a small portion — Koksan 170-mm self-propelled guns, as well as 240-mm and 300-mm multiple launch rocket systems — are capable of actually reaching Seoul. Broadly speaking, the bulk of Pyongyang's artillery can reach only into the northern border area of South Korea or the northern outskirts of Seoul.

All forms of North Korean artillery have problems with volume and effectiveness of fire, but those issues are often more pronounced for the longer-range systems. Problems include the high malfunction rate of indigenous ammunition, poorly trained artillery crews, and a reluctance to expend critical artillery assets by exposing their positions.