ADP’s Zandi: Expect “rip-roaring” job growth in tomorrow’s BLS report (Meowing?)

[endicom]

Hot Air
Ed Morrissey
June 1, 2017

Yes, this leading indicator shows a surge of activity, but don’t order the confetti just yet. Today’s ADP employment report certainly does offer some hope for a breakout month of job creation in May, projecting a gain of 253,000 private-sector jobs from the previous month. That came in well above the estimates from other economists, and showed a rebound in ADP’s series:

>

Tomorrow, the data to watch will be both U-6 and wages. If the latter starts really moving up quickly, then we may be beginning to see a tight labor market that will lift all boats. It certainly may prove true, but … better to wait for real evidence of it.

More... http://hotair.com/archives/2017/06/01/adps-zandi-expect-rip-roaring-job-growth-tomorrows-bls-report/

[skeeter]

Hot Air
Ed Morrissey
June 1, 2017

Yes, this leading indicator shows a surge of activity, but don’t order the confetti just yet. Today’s ADP employment report certainly does offer some hope for a breakout month of job creation in May, projecting a gain of 253,000 private-sector jobs from the previous month. That came in well above the estimates from other economists, and showed a rebound in ADP’s series:

>

Tomorrow, the data to watch will be both U-6 and wages. If the latter starts really moving up quickly, then we may be beginning to see a tight labor market that will lift all boats. It certainly may prove true, but … better to wait for real evidence of it.

More... http://hotair.com/archives/2017/06/01/adps-zandi-expect-rip-roaring-job-growth-tomorrows-bls-report/

U3 is the number we always hear. Its around 5% while U6, including as it does underemployed and discouraged would-be workers who've quit looking, is at around 9%

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

U3 is the number we always hear. Its around 5% while U6, including as it does underemployed and discouraged would-be workers who've quit looking, is at around 9%

And it also include retirees and willingly unemployed.

[skeeter]

And it also include retirees and willingly unemployed.

Not according to any of the sources I've seen. Why would anyone include retirees in an unemployed figure?

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

Not according to any of the sources I've seen. Why would anyone include retirees in an unemployed figure?

How would you exclude them?

The unemployment numbers are part of survey. They simply ask if you have looked for a job in the past few months, and were able to get one.

If you have not looked for a job, you are either considered "discouraged" or retired and are included in the number.

[skeeter]

How would you exclude them?

The unemployment numbers are part of survey. They simply ask if you have looked for a job in the past few months, and were able to get one.

If you have not looked for a job, you are either considered "discouraged" or retired and are included in the number.

If the survey the US conducts is that simplistic then we really have no idea what the employment picture is. I assume they're smarter than that. Retirees make up over 8% of the population alone.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

If the survey the US conducts is that simplistic then we really have no idea what the employment picture is. I assume they're smarter than that. Retirees make up over 8% of the population alone.

That is ILO (International Labor Organization) standard employment metrics. Take it up with them.

[dfwgator]

Expect the libs to dust off the old term, "McJobs."

[skeeter]

That is ILO (International Labor Organization) standard employment metrics. Take it up with them.

I'm sure a random net kook like yourself is to be believed over them.

Lol. And you wonder why you're so popular here.

[endicom]

And it also include retirees and willingly unemployed.

@skeeter

@Weird Tolkienish Figure


This indicates otherwise: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

"NOTE: Persons marginally attached to the labor force are those who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the past 12 months. Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not currently looking for work. Persons employed part time for economic reasons are those who want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time schedule. Updated population controls are introduced annually with the release of January data."


At any rate, the table shows a trend towards improved employment prospects and I sure as hell hope that's so.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

Lol. And you wonder why you're so popular here.

I've never wondered or cared about my popularity here.

[skeeter]

I've never wondered or cared about my popularity here.

There's a clinical name for that.

[skeeter]

@skeeter

@Weird Tolkienish Figure


This indicates otherwise: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

"NOTE: Persons marginally attached to the labor force are those who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the past 12 months. Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not currently looking for work. Persons employed part time for economic reasons are those who want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time schedule. Updated population controls are introduced annually with the release of January data."


At any rate, the table shows a trend towards improved employment prospects and I sure as hell hope that's so.

Yeah, it was pretty clearly a ridiculous claim.

Thanks for the confirmation.

[SirLinksALot]

Folks,

As moderator, I generally do not wish to intervene in discussions. But please, I will be forced to delete your message if the attacks become personal. Please direct any critiques at the argument itself AVOID PERSONAL INSULTS.