Author Topic: Are U.S. presidential elections de facto binary choices?  (Read 8401 times)

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geronl

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Re: U.S. presidential elections are de facto choices.
« Reply #25 on: May 19, 2017, 05:15:15 am »

Of course being told by fellow self-identifying Conservatives to shut up about morality and religion and focus only on politics is certainly not building any confidence that my current viewpoint on the state of this people and the culture should warrant change.


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Offline LateForLunch

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Re: U.S. presidential elections are de facto choices.
« Reply #26 on: May 19, 2017, 01:49:15 pm »
Let me remind you of one thing here.

William Buckley's brother James, who I'm assuming had Bill's support, ran for Senate and won. He did it on a third party line, when both of his opponents, one of whom was an incumbent Republican, were admitted liberals.
 So, the question is: how do we change that?

The only way is to get a mass of people to vote, in unity, for a third option—something I advocated this past election cycle.

The great thing about the Electoral College is that a majority of electoral votes are needed. If the vote is split three ways, the candidate with 49% of them (for example) doesn't win. So, the task for a third party candidate is only to get electoral votes, either through shenanigans with the electoral college, or simply by winning a state election, and hope the other two split enough for neither to get a majority. Evan McMullin got very close this past election cycle to doing just that.

There is a viable way forward. Eventually, if neither party represents the right way, that path will have to be explored, no matter how uncomfortable that may be. Otherwise, you end up in the vicious cycle—nobody considers it because they can't win, and they can't win because nobody considers it. It's a cycle that can, and must, be broken.

Thanks for the very substantive, gracious response.

You raised some excellent points.

That being said, the fact that Buckley's relative was an exception to the general statement does not expunge the validity of the basic premise of the Buckley Rule (voting for the most conservative candidate that can win). I don't have the pre-election opinion polling numbers for that election available, but I would guess that the winning candidate polled high enough prior to the general election to give some strong indication that a vote for them would have no value except in the sense of being a "spoiler".
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Offline LateForLunch

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Re: U.S. presidential elections are de facto choices.
« Reply #27 on: May 19, 2017, 02:01:21 pm »
Thanks to everyone who posted for their honest responses. I invited honesty even with the added ingredient of vituperation and that's what I got, so no complaints from me.

I don't agree with the conclusions or endorse the logic of most of the posts which dispute the title post's conclusions, but reading everyone's genuine opinions gives me some valuable information about why people on the Forum hold the opinions that they do.

I got the general sense that many of those who posted disagreement felt attacked or harassed (unfairly challenged) but that was not the intention of the post. I have no interest in inflating my own ego by "proving" anything ( or putting my shoulder to the wheel of breaking others upon it). I consider everyone who posted to be an ally, because they are all self-described conservatives.

It is clear to me (even if it is not to some of our members) that the only disagreements we have here are over the best methods for achieving our commonly favored results.

It's not unusual for individualists with a strong moral sense to get into contentious disputes over issues both large and small. That was true in the 18th century and it's true now.

This post was most definitely NOT about laying down the gauntlet for some sort of power struggle with winners and losers. It was about knowledge. So thanks again to everyone who responded, even (especially) those who disagreed with me.

It's going to be a long slog into the 2018 election, but from what I've seen, the conservative/Republican political movement is in a lot better shape and has a much more encouraging configuration of basic elements to bring success than the 'Crats.

As contentious as conservative arguments can be, and as passionately fierce as we defend those arguments, we are still talking primarily about real, tangible, substantive issues. The leftists are still mired in a Marianas Trench of self-pity disguised as outrage. Their sigil is hate / chaos with a pronounced dedication to remaining almost wholly detached from reality and getting everyone else to join them.
« Last Edit: May 19, 2017, 02:16:42 pm by LateForLunch »
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Offline DiogenesLamp

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Re: U.S. presidential elections are de facto choices.
« Reply #28 on: May 19, 2017, 02:07:25 pm »
I believe it comes down to the view of the question.  If the question is viewed at a national level, then until a third party is able to gather more than 20% of the vote, then yes it is a binary choice.  However if the question is viewed from the personal level, then any candidate that is available to be voted for is a viable option.



Methinks you are misapplying the word "viable."


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Offline ABX

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Re: U.S. presidential elections are de facto choices.
« Reply #29 on: May 19, 2017, 02:07:36 pm »
One thing left out in all this is the US Constitution and the actual process we have in place. This article is all about how the writer 'feels' on the situation, but the facts of our system prevent it from being a truly binary choice. The elector process is a check and balance on a 'binary-only' system. Federalist 68 goes pretty in depth into it. One of the things that make us a Republic, not a direct Democracy. the elector process is to be one extra check and balance in the Presidential election process, offering the possible reset button if needed. This is why it gives a minimum threshold the candidate must meet.

The people have made it, in most elections, a binary choice because they were told that is the only choice they had. Just like in this election, how many 'held their nose' because they were told they had to do that to stop the other person. They weren't voting for who they wanted, they were voting against who they didn't want.

The reality though, back to Federalist 58, is that it doesn't take a third party to win outright. It just takes the opportunity to influence the elector count to keep one of the major parties from reaching 270. 

But the fact of the matter, voting your values, even if it is for a third party is never a wasted vote, nor is it 'helping the other guy'

It is all about the electoral college and understanding how that works. A third candidate does not need to be on the ballots in all 50 states to be competitive nor to make an impact.
All the third parties need to do is keep the two major party candidates from reaching 270 EVs.

If no candidate reaches 270 electoral votes, the race is decided by the House of Representatives for president and Senate for VP. The House makes their choice based on the top 3 EV winners (in contention). But it gets even more interesting if the House fails to come to a decision, then the President is the VP selected by Senate..

Remember Bush v Gore; Bush won, 271 to 266 electoral votes. Only two EV's shifting to a (or multiple) third party candidates could have meant that neither major party candidate would win outright, it would go to the House. In the Bush v Gore case, a third party only getting on the ballot in ONE state could have theoretically made them competitive.

Give the 12th Amendment a read.

This is like a big red reset button.

This is also not unheard of. This has happened twice before in our history, so out of 45 presidents, those are bad odds but not impossible odds. In addition, in four other elections, what would be considered a 'third party' overtook the given two major parties of the time. That is six times out of 45 presidents. (13% change in the 'binary given')

So no, a third party vote is not a wasted vote. This is why it is critical people vote their conscience and values, not the game.

Offline DiogenesLamp

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Re: U.S. presidential elections are de facto choices.
« Reply #30 on: May 19, 2017, 02:09:27 pm »
You can either choose Coke or Pepsi, it's a binary choice!

uh, nope.



Nonsense analogy.   Election are national referendums boiling down to a single winner,  not 300 million choices.   


 
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Offline Cripplecreek

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Re: U.S. presidential elections are de facto choices.
« Reply #31 on: May 19, 2017, 02:09:36 pm »
So if my not voting for Trump is a vote for Clinton, What are you lil Trumpers gonna do about it?  :silly:

Offline DiogenesLamp

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Re: U.S. presidential elections are de facto choices.
« Reply #32 on: May 19, 2017, 02:14:18 pm »
This last one boiled down to liberal or liberal.  Which did you choose?


That is an incorrect statement.   The choice was between a psychotic, criminally minded Nazi-like hate-witch  and a boorish guy from New York.   


They are different magnitudes of objectionable.   You are comparing a lightning bug to lightning and calling them equivalent. 

« Last Edit: May 19, 2017, 02:15:08 pm by DiogenesLamp »
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Offline DiogenesLamp

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Re: U.S. presidential elections are de facto choices.
« Reply #33 on: May 19, 2017, 02:17:29 pm »
Yet somehow I managed to vote without voting for your Orange democrat or the Pantsuit aficionado.

I WILL do the same next time.



You should get a  political "Darwin Award"  for removing yourself from the political gene  pool. 


Your "genes"  will not pass on. 


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Offline ABX

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Re: U.S. presidential elections are de facto choices.
« Reply #34 on: May 19, 2017, 02:19:21 pm »
One other factor I failed to add in is the nature of political parties as businesses. The voters are the consumers of the products the parties are selling. In any business, if you see a decent percentage of your customers leaving, you will analyze your market position to determine if you are selling the right product to stop a trend of your customers leaving.

Let's say for example, in a future election, both the Democrat and Republican parties see a drop in their voters by 15% to the Owl party, then, in the next election, another 15% of their voters defect, the parties will look at the positions the Owl party takes and will have to decide if they need to shift their position and platform to stop the exit of their customers.

This is how voters can not only choose a candidate but influence the position trend of politics itself. It doesn't mean an outright win in those elections but it does mean they are influencing the change in the product going forward.

If, however, the voters continue to accept candidates whose positions they disagree with, we will continue to get more and more disagreeable candidates. We have been sending the message to politics that we will accept more and more statist candidates and further leftward shifts. We are not sending a message about our values, we are telling them we will keep playing the game.

This is like if people kept eating at McDonalds even though they served spoiled food simply because McDonalds told them they have no other choice. As long as people keep eating what they are serving, they see no need to change their menu.

Offline LateForLunch

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Re: U.S. presidential elections are de facto choices.
« Reply #35 on: May 19, 2017, 02:31:39 pm »
Every mother's son/daughter on this Forum with the time and inclination to read good fiction, should read Tolkien's Silmarillion. See, that book is an object lesson in how good people defeat and sometimes destroy themselves.

Several things have now been made clear to me from reading the posts in this thread.

1. There is some intransigence on basic issues and facts in evidence that is chronic and unlikely to be resolved in this format. Selah.

2. Some of our posters are getting their feelings hurt by others who disagree with them strongly.

3. Even though there is strong disagreement, it is largely over issue peripheral to the most basic ones . We universally agree on the need for achieving the same results but differ on how best to achieve them.

One of the most important goals of all good discussion forums (whether their members see it as such or not) is to establish a constructive dialectic. That is a term oft misused and misunderstood, which refers to basically "finding firm common ground that does not shift" between contentious factions.

The process of creating a dialectic is that one party makes a statement as truth, establishes it with the use of critical thinking/argument. Then the established truth forms the basis for another, further truth. And so on.

The Miracle of the Constitution was the product of a dialectic. The far left has hijacked the process of using this method and turned it into a form of corrosive acid instead of consensus-building between like-minded patriots.

I have ZERO interest in trying to establish a dialectic with leftists. They are almost to a man, fanatical extremist anti-conservatives. And that sort by definition is both unwilling (due to their extremist ideology) and unable (due to their warped ontology) to trace any sort of legitimate flow of constructive ideas focused on cooperative compromise.

I have a tremendous interest in building a conservative dialectic, because even after 200+ years,  the Hegelian Dialectic is still the best way for serious-minded individuals to move forward together as one common people, without leaving vast sections of the constituency behind to feel abandoned, forsaken and hated.

Bravely Somatotonic people (those "muscle-dominated" types with an inclination to action/engagement) have a dilemma, they (we) tend to want to act with courage and bravery and fearlessness, even when we don't have a clear purpose. We want to be like a gun that is pointed in a direction and fired. We don't like intellectual debate (we are impatient and suspicious of too much lollygagging, hemming and hawing). The problem for those of us with this essential personality-inclination is that in an age where strength is more often shown by refraining from drastic action than in taking drastic action.

Mastery, both of the inner and outer world, is best achieved through self control and self knowledge which enables that. I would submit that all of us who love the United States as an institution and as an historically magnificent force for good, may do both ourselves and our cause great good by abandoning any concerns of ego in regard to advocacy. 

My own wish is that I will ignore, (to the best of my ability) those who seek to insult and denigrate me or my ideas, and move on to those who have at least the willingness  to put aside their own concerns about power or humiliation, and work together to kill the enemy.

And of course the enemy is not the primarily Democrats, nor the Norks/Marxists and it's not even the militant muzz. It's CHAOS and the mismanagement of human affairs that brings it.
« Last Edit: May 19, 2017, 02:50:49 pm by LateForLunch »
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Offline INVAR

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Re: U.S. presidential elections are de facto choices.
« Reply #36 on: May 19, 2017, 02:31:59 pm »
In any business, if you see a decent percentage of your customers leaving, you will analyze your market position to determine if you are selling the right product to stop a trend of your customers leaving.

Or you can be like Sears and double down on stupid.

Which is exactly what the GOP has done.

And like Sears - their brand is now bankrupt of any principles except better managing big government.

Which is why I'll be shopping at a political version of Amazon.
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...Obsta principiis—Nip the shoots of arbitrary power in the bud, is the only maxim which can ever preserve the liberties of any people. When the people give way, their deceivers, betrayers and destroyers press upon them so fast that there is no resisting afterwards. The nature of the encroachment upon [the] American constitution is such, as to grow every day more and more encroaching. Like a cancer, it eats faster and faster every hour." - John Adams, February 6, 1775

Offline INVAR

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Re: U.S. presidential elections are de facto choices.
« Reply #37 on: May 19, 2017, 03:04:43 pm »
The goal of all good discussion forums is to establish a constructive dialectic. That is a term oft misused and misunderstood, which refers to basically "finding common ground that does not shift" between contentious factions.

The process of creating a dialectic is that one party makes a statement as truth, establishes it with the use of critical thinking/argument. Then the established truth forms the basis for another, further truth. And so on.

I think these discussions and the atmosphere since the last election cycle proves that 'common ground' no longer really exists.

The arguments are between man and party over principles, or principles over man and party.  It is become obvious there is no middle ground to be had. Those who push man and party have told us to shut up, sit down and get out.  They have declared us selfish, stupid, foolish, idiotic and boorish.  They have decided to refer to those of us who are governed by principles as an enemy that must be silenced and destroyed.  Persuasion of principles has fallen on deaf ears and pushers of man and party is demanded, not persuaded.

The core principles of liberty grounded in morality and religion that once created the common ground that made this republic possible, have been rejected. They do not want to even hear them mentioned or advocated.  Politics used to be an extension of our national morality and religion.  Today, Politics has become the religion and morality of the nation.

Those are divides that history teaches are never reconciled.

Except by blood.

And we have been reading all the precursors to such an outcome.

Some if it directed at those who will not surrender principles to bow to man and party.
Fart for freedom, fart for liberty and fart proudly.  - Benjamin Franklin

...Obsta principiis—Nip the shoots of arbitrary power in the bud, is the only maxim which can ever preserve the liberties of any people. When the people give way, their deceivers, betrayers and destroyers press upon them so fast that there is no resisting afterwards. The nature of the encroachment upon [the] American constitution is such, as to grow every day more and more encroaching. Like a cancer, it eats faster and faster every hour." - John Adams, February 6, 1775

Offline driftdiver

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Re: U.S. presidential elections are de facto choices.
« Reply #38 on: May 19, 2017, 03:16:34 pm »
I think these discussions and the atmosphere since the last election cycle proves that 'common ground' no longer really exists.

The arguments are between man and party over principles, or principles over man and party.  It is become obvious there is no middle ground to be had. Those who push man and party have told us to shut up, sit down and get out.  They have declared us selfish, stupid, foolish, idiotic and boorish.  They have decided to refer to those of us who are governed by principles as an enemy that must be silenced and destroyed.  Persuasion of principles has fallen on deaf ears and pushers of man and party is demanded, not persuaded.

The core principles of liberty grounded in morality and religion that once created the common ground that made this republic possible, have been rejected. They do not want to even hear them mentioned or advocated.  Politics used to be an extension of our national morality and religion.  Today, Politics has become the religion and morality of the nation.

Those are divides that history teaches are never reconciled.

Except by blood.

And we have been reading all the precursors to such an outcome.

Some if it directed at those who will not surrender principles to bow to man and party.

I disagree.  The problem is that folks want to have these arguments in the general election and even after the election.   Time for this is now, 3+ years before the election.   Get a voice in who is running the local elections, the local party and who gets nominated.

Arguing about the best way to lock the door after the horse has left is pointless.
« Last Edit: May 19, 2017, 03:20:31 pm by driftdiver »
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Offline INVAR

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Re: U.S. presidential elections are de facto choices.
« Reply #39 on: May 19, 2017, 03:53:21 pm »
I disagree.  The problem is that folks want to have these arguments in the general election and even after the election.   Time for this is now, 3+ years before the election.   Get a voice in who is running the local elections, the local party and who gets nominated.

Arguing about the best way to lock the door after the horse has left is pointless.

I think it's ridiculous to suggest that discussion of Principles must be kept in a box and only opened at limited times before an election. 

The fact remains this people do not want to discuss or hear about foundational moral, religious and liberty principles at any time if it interferes with cheerleading their favorite team and players.
Fart for freedom, fart for liberty and fart proudly.  - Benjamin Franklin

...Obsta principiis—Nip the shoots of arbitrary power in the bud, is the only maxim which can ever preserve the liberties of any people. When the people give way, their deceivers, betrayers and destroyers press upon them so fast that there is no resisting afterwards. The nature of the encroachment upon [the] American constitution is such, as to grow every day more and more encroaching. Like a cancer, it eats faster and faster every hour." - John Adams, February 6, 1775

Offline ABX

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Re: U.S. presidential elections are de facto choices.
« Reply #40 on: May 19, 2017, 03:57:49 pm »
I think it's ridiculous to suggest that discussion of Principles must be kept in a box and only opened at limited times before an election. 

The fact remains this people do not want to discuss or hear about foundational moral, religious and liberty principles at any time if it interferes with cheerleading their favorite team and players.

That's really one of the big problems. We treat it like a Superbowl we watch once a year or so, but don't really pay attention or stand up the rest of the time. We wait until the propaganda and group dynamic is in full force and it results in easily being manipulated.

Offline driftdiver

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Re: U.S. presidential elections are de facto choices.
« Reply #41 on: May 19, 2017, 04:03:31 pm »
I think it's ridiculous to suggest that discussion of Principles must be kept in a box and only opened at limited times before an election. 

The fact remains this people do not want to discuss or hear about foundational moral, religious and liberty principles at any time if it interferes with cheerleading their favorite team and players.

Never said they must only be let out at certain times.   I'm saying that if you try to fight every single battle you will lose.  Not only will you lose but you will become irrelevant and cease having any impact on the issues.   Your voice counts the same as everyone else.   The leftists work together pretty good and unite their voices.   Conservatives spend more time fighting with each other and proving who is the most conservative and get nothing actually done.

But hey as long as you can pound your chest and say "I am the most conservative of them all!!" I guess thats good.
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Offline roamer_1

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Re: U.S. presidential elections are de facto choices.
« Reply #42 on: May 19, 2017, 05:11:26 pm »
[...] no value except in the sense of being a "spoiler".

Your dismissal aside, to 'spoil' is a valid motive for voting otherwise - disproving 'binary' again.

Offline LateForLunch

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Re: U.S. presidential elections are de facto choices.
« Reply #43 on: May 19, 2017, 05:16:26 pm »
If I were anyone else posting on this topic, I'd just write off any disagreements over the issue and move on.

I've recently realized that it's not necessary to win every battle or to convince everyone who disagrees with me that I am correct and they incorrect.

I have decided to let people believe what they like and try to look for common ground in the future, without focusing on recovering lost common ground in the past.

I don't believe that failure to agree on this is really so much a character issue as it is a matter of people feeling respected. One of the negative side effects of Trump running the sort of campaign he ran was that, whether he intended to or not, he made a lot of people who might have voted for him if he had been less coarse or vituperative feel disrespected.

To me, that is the bottom line. I question whether DJT should consider running another campaign with the same approach. There was an element of luck involved in his victory which makes me think that even if he has a fairly good first term (which I think there is a lot of evidence he has so far) he might be doing a more helpful thing for the nation to not seek a second term and let Pence run in his stead.
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Offline roamer_1

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Re: U.S. presidential elections are de facto choices.
« Reply #44 on: May 19, 2017, 05:17:17 pm »

That is an incorrect statement.   The choice was between a psychotic, criminally minded Nazi-like hate-witch  and a boorish guy from New York.   

That is a significant downplaying of Trump, whether intended or not.

Quote
They are different magnitudes of objectionable.   You are comparing a lightning bug to lightning and calling them equivalent.

Not in my mind. I find them comparable in stench.

Offline LateForLunch

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Re: U.S. presidential elections are de facto choices.
« Reply #45 on: May 19, 2017, 05:22:53 pm »
You know folks, the results of this thread are inclining me toward starting another because I want to explore why people feel so strongly that this is an issue which must be fought to the death, rather than simply finding forgiveness in their hearts for the offenses of others and hope for some future reconciliation based upon common interest.

Do any of you really believe that someone who is a self-described conservative is automatically a person of unacceptably low character simply based on their position on this one issue?

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Offline ABX

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Re: U.S. presidential elections are de facto choices.
« Reply #46 on: May 19, 2017, 05:24:50 pm »
You know folks, the results of this thread are inclining me toward starting another because I want to explore why people feel so strongly that this is an issue which must be fought to the death, rather than simply finding forgiveness in their hearts for the offenses of others and hope for some future reconciliation based upon common interest.

Do any of you really believe that someone who is a self-described conservative is automatically a person of unacceptably low character simply based on their position on this one issue?

I don't see where, at least in this thread, anyone said or implied any of that.

Offline driftdiver

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Re: U.S. presidential elections are de facto choices.
« Reply #47 on: May 19, 2017, 05:29:48 pm »
That is a significant downplaying of Trump, whether intended or not.

Not in my mind. I find them comparable in stench.

@roamer_1
You find a guy who murdered millions of people comparable to Donald Trump?   Donald has done a lot of immoral things but I don't think he's actually killed anyone.  Nor caused anyone to take a fatal shower.
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Re: Are U.S. presidential elections de facto binary choices?
« Reply #48 on: May 19, 2017, 05:33:30 pm »
Quote
Are U.S. presidential elections de facto binary choices?

No. 

Next question.
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Offline LateForLunch

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Re: Are U.S. presidential elections de facto binary choices?
« Reply #49 on: May 19, 2017, 05:44:53 pm »
No. 

Next question.

I have a question. Can you imagine why someone might think that this response is being flippant?
« Last Edit: May 19, 2017, 06:00:12 pm by LateForLunch »
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