Size Matters

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Size Matters
By Ben Falk
May 11, 2017

It starts with the lobs and the layups and the whistles, and if those are taken away, the three-point barrage begins. The launches come from steps behind the three point line, extending defenses beyond their comfort zones. They push the boundaries of what’s been done, the records for three point attempts falling almost as fast as they’re set. Facing this Rockets team, opponents are caught in the ultimate defensive dilemma: protect the basket and face the fusillade of long-range bombs, or stay at home on shooters and take it on the chin at the rim?

The tailor-made trio of James Harden, Mike D’Antoni, and Daryl Morey has brought us the latest step in basketball’s offensive evolution. The way the game is played has been changing as teams and players have embraced the added value of the three point shot — and Houston has been leading the charge.

But this isn’t another article about how the analytically-savvy Rockets crunched the numbers and redefined basketball. Instead, it’s a look at a different team, a team that’s defying this trend and going in the opposite direction: staying big, living in midrange, and playing a seemingly anachronistic style of basketball.

Standing Still is Moving Backward

They play big. They play a halfcourt, methodical game. They’ve led the NBA in midrange shots over the past two seasons combined, ahead of even the Triangular Knicks. Clearly they haven’t gotten the memo that the modern NBA is all about pace-and-space, rim-and-threes, I-can-go-smaller-than-you basketball.

There’s just one small thing to note before grabbing the pitchforks and demanding a change of leadership: in these last two years this team has won more games than anyone but the Warriors. Yes, the Spurs, still in the midst of one of the most successful runs in sports history, have become the anti-Rockets. The movement the Rockets launched after the acquisition of James Harden in 2012 has pulled almost everyone in the league in their direction — except for the Spurs.

It’s not that the Spurs are doing things differently than they have in the past, but that in a quickly changing NBA, standing still is moving backwards. 44% of San Antonio’s shots came in midrange this season, the same percentage as did a decade ago in 2006. But in 2006 that meant 19 other teams took more midrange shots than they did — this year only Detroit did.

Graph showing changing midrange shooting of league, Spurs and Rockets over last 10 seasons



Teams have been fleeing the midrange because, when you dive into the data, it turns out most players don’t make long twos at a high enough rate to justify the decreased value of a shot inside the arc. Yet despite the math seemingly working against them, the Spurs have depended heavily on the midrange and still scored efficiently. This year they had the 7th ranked offense and last year they placed 4th. They’ve done it by converting their threes at a very high rate (ranked 1st in 3P% this year, 2nd last year), making the most of the few looks they do get at the rim (8th in rim FG% this year, 3rd last year) and fielding a roster with some of the league’s best midrange shooters. Plus, remember: it’s easier to take care of the ball when you take more midrange shots.

The offense isn’t what propelled them to back-to-back 60+ win seasons, though — it’s the other side of the ball where they’re special. The Spurs have been the best defense in the league each of the last two years, following the same formula they have for almost 20 years: protect the rim, don’t give up threes, don’t foul, and don’t let teams beat you in transition. Their defense, then, is perfectly suited to stop these modern, Rocket-fueled offenses.

There’s something confusing about this, though. If the Spurs get the math on one end, how does it not transfer over to the other? When their defense forced the most midrange shots in the league last season, their offense also led the league in midrange shots attempted.
   
The same question could be asked of the Rockets, in reverse. How can they treat midrange shots as offense-killers on one end, but rank in the bottom half of the league in forcing midrange shots in each of the last three seasons on the other end?

There’s something deeper going on here than stylistic preference. Something that cuts to the heart of almost all current basketball debate.

Size Matters

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https://cleaningtheglass.com/size-matters/

[corbe]

                                                 Been there done that!



    A playoff series doesn't start until someone wins 3 games
                                                      Hakeem Olajuwon

                                                    Go Rockets!

[corbe]

[geronl]

The Spurs destroyed the Rockets in game 6, 114 to 75.

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   Thanks for reminding me @geronl I hate you    jk

[geronl]

   Thanks for reminding me @geronl I hate you    jk

I was kinda hoping the Rockets would win