Visualizing The Collapse Of The Middle Class In 20 Major U.S. Cities

[IsailedawayfromFR]

Middle class? Won't be one. The robots will take over that. Over time, we'll will likely descend into city-states and rural ag states independent of each other, for awhile anyway.

No way independent.

The city will always be dependent upon those who create food, minerals, manufacturing.   Those items are taxed heavily and will support the ability to live in urban communities which are largely more expensive and less producing than elsewhere.

Think NYC and the rest of NY state.

[Hondo69]

I'm not sure how I would advise HS students right now to plan for their futures.  Obviously for those who can go to college and go into STEM or another useful degree plan, it's not a problem, but for those who will not finish or go to college it's going to be a real problem.

My daughter is a HS senior and just recently finalized the college selection process.  Narrowing it down from 8 schools to 1 is quite a process, especially considering the important check points for us parents is quite different than hers.  I don't give a rat's a** about school colors or mascot, for example.

Counselors at her high school pressured her to choose a study path.  They'll do the same once she starts college.  I've advised her to not worry about it much.  Fill in the blanks if they require her to do so, but don't take it too seriously.  She'll change her mind several times and damn few people know what they really want to do with their lives at 18 years old.  Besides, only a small percentage of people I know are actually working in the same field as their degree.

But the time they are a changin'.  Dustin Hoffman was advised to go into plastics in The Graduate, my generation saw computers advancing from refrigerator sized machines to something much better.  I don't see any of those same type of life changing advances coming around the corner anytime soon.

For the time being I guess the best we can hope for is that she doesn't turn into a tree-hugging protestor who avoids taking a bath and shaving her legs. 

[DCPatriot]

No way independent.

The city will always be dependent upon those who create food, minerals, manufacturing.   Those items are taxed heavily and will support the ability to live in urban communities which are largely more expensive and less producing than elsewhere.

Think NYC and the rest of NY state.

Hell.....Think Hunger Games with dozens of 'zones'. 

[Free Vulcan]

No way independent.

The city will always be dependent upon those who create food, minerals, manufacturing.   Those items are taxed heavily and will support the ability to live in urban communities which are largely more expensive and less producing than elsewhere.

Think NYC and the rest of NY state.

Problem is, that will almost all be automated, and requiring a fraction of the percentage of population to run it as it takes now. While there will be a middle class of technical people, it will be tiny. There would probably be a small entrepreneur class that would service the needs that can't be automated - shops, restaurants, etc., but outside that labor skills would be in low demand.

The rural areas that don't service the cities would be basically have an economy that is focused on self-sufficient, highly local, and mostly independent. Little to no middle class though either.

Point is, the economy will be primarily of those on either ends. The middle though will shrink dramatically due to automation.

[Idaho_Cowboy]

And you obviously have zero understanding of economics, yet your blowhard ego isn't going to let that get in the way of your delusions. You can't champion automation and then turn around bald faced and tell us there's going to be a healthy middle class.

Wasn't it automation and specialization of labor that gave the western world the middle class?

[InHeavenThereIsNoBeer]

Wasn't it automation and specialization of labor that gave the western world the middle class?

Yes, but some would argue it started with the plague.

[Free Vulcan]

Wasn't it automation and specialization of labor that gave the western world the middle class?

Sort of. It started in the ag sector. Early 1800's ag was the dominant sector and labor intensive. Machines began reducing the need for manual labor around the time of the Civil War, and farm labor peaked around 1910.

At the same time though invention and manufacturing was exploding, and required a great deal of labor. So the labor economy shifted. As tech advanced, the need for labor in manufacturing reduced. Peak labor there was about 1980.

Around that time though computers started taking off, shifting the need for labor again. Now we are in the services/information age. The demand for that is heading for that peak now.

Automation though, is going to reduce the need for that, as well as what is left in manufacturing and agriculture in one fell swoop. It's going to be a vertical integration of labor all into machines.from bottom to top, with a few technical people to monitor and correct what the AI's can't.

In some ways it will be an all ownership economy. You will either own a farm and produce for yourself, a shop or store serving the few with income, or an owner of a company that produces X.

What there won't be is much demand for labor and skills. That middle class income manager or technician with high skills that lives in the burbs will become a very scarce. Low skilled labor will be almost nonexistent. It will be a very disperate economy of two extremes and little in the middle.