Author Topic: E. Coast Refiner Shuns Bakken Delivery As Dakota Access Pipeline Starts  (Read 1745 times)

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Offline thackney

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E. Coast Refiner Shuns Bakken Delivery As Dakota Access Pipeline Starts
http://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/a/149779/E_Coast_Refiner_Shuns_Bakken_Delivery_As_Dakota_Access_Pipeline_Starts/?all=HG2
April 19, 2017


Philadelphia Energy Solutions Inc, the largest refiner on the U.S. East Coast, will not be taking any rail deliveries of North Dakota's Bakken crude oil in June, a source familiar with delivery schedules said on Tuesday - a sign that the impending start of the Dakota Access Pipeline is upending trade flows.

At its peak, PES would have routinely taken about 3 miles' worth of trains filled with Bakken oil each day. But after the $3.8 billion Dakota Access Pipeline begins interstate crude oil delivery on May 14, it will be more lucrative for producers to transport oil to refineries in the U.S. Gulf Coast.

The long-delayed pipeline will provide a boost for Bakken prices and unofficially end the crude-by-rail boom that revived U.S. East Coast refining operations several years ago.

"It's the new reality," said Taylor Robinson, president of PLG Consulting. "Unless there's an unforeseen event, like a supply disruption, there will be no economic incentive to rail Bakken to the East Coast."

PES declined to comment for this story.

The 1,172-mile (1,885-km) Dakota Access line runs from western North Dakota to a transfer point in Patoka, Illinois. From there, the 450,000 barrel per day line will connect to large refineries in the Nederland and Port Arthur, Texas, area.

The project became a focus of international attention, drawing protesters from around the world, after a Native American tribe sued to block completion of the final link of the pipeline through a remote part of North Dakota.

The Standing Rock Sioux tribe said the pipeline would desecrate a sacred burial ground and that any oil leak would poison the tribe's water supply.

But after U.S. President Donald Trump took office in January, one of his first acts was to sign an executive order that reversed a decision by the Obama administration to delay approval of the pipeline. The tribe also lost several lawsuits aimed at stopping the project led by Energy Transfer Partners LP.

PES has scheduled just five rail deliveries of crude for May and none for June at its facility in Philadelphia, according to the source familiar with the plant's operations, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to speak about company operations. Deliveries are often scheduled months in advance to manage logistics like storage and manpower.

In recent months, PES was getting roughly one unit train per day, the equivalent of 75,000 barrels a day. During the boom years between 2013 and 2015, PES would routinely receive three trains a day of Bakken.

PES and other refiners built large rail terminals on the East Coast in recent years to accommodate cheap Bakken flowing from North Dakota. The PES refinery terminal, which opened in 2013, was able to handle roughly 280,000 barrels a day, making it the largest on the U.S. East Coast.

Rail volumes of Bakken crude peaked at 420,000 bpd, resulting in bumper profits for those refiners. But Bakken crude's discount to U.S. crude slowly eroded as pipeline capacity out of North Dakota expanded, increasing competition for the heavy oil.

That forced the East Coast to rely more heavily on foreign, waterborne crude. Currently, Bakken barrels at the delivery point in Nederland, Texas, in June are trading around $1.25 to $1.50 a barrel over U.S. crude futures. Higher rail costs would boost those barrels to $7 to $8 more than U.S. crude....
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Offline thackney

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Offline Hoodat

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The story does not match the title.  If it is more lucrative for producers to pipe to the Gulf Coast, then they wouldn't be shipping to the East coast to begin with.  Thus, east coast refineries wouldn't be shunning rail cars that are no longer sent.
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Offline thackney

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The story does not match the title.  If it is more lucrative for producers to pipe to the Gulf Coast, then they wouldn't be shipping to the East coast to begin with. Thus, east coast refineries wouldn't be shunning rail cars that are no longer sent.

There was more oil produced than pipeline capacity to carry it away, so "extra" oil was shipped on the more expensive rail.

However, once on rail, the East coast will pay a little better because the competition there is mostly oil from overseas.

Oil producers, get paid a little less at the gulf coast, but the savings is using pipelines to ship exceeds the difference in price per location.
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geronl

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doesn't Warren Buffett make money on those trains?

Offline Cyber Liberty

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doesn't Warren Buffett make money on those trains?

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Offline Smokin Joe

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There was more oil produced than pipeline capacity to carry it away, so "extra" oil was shipped on the more expensive rail.

However, once on rail, the East coast will pay a little better because the competition there is mostly oil from overseas.

Oil producers, get paid a little less at the gulf coast, but the savings is using pipelines to ship exceeds the difference in price per location.
Yep, when rail was the way to go, the rail lines made moving oil east and west easier, and opened new markets in which Bakken oil competed with crude shipped form overseas.
DAPL has a carrying capacity of roughly half of the Williston Basin (ND portion) crude production. (Montana, South Dakota, and Canada's production not included).
 
This market shift was predicted, to some extent, at least the decline in the more expensive rail transport, because of the $6-$8 more in transport costs per barrel (Which is why the protests against the pipeline after the kerfuffle about rail transport seemed so insane.)

I think the article has another problem, though.
Quote
Rail volumes of Bakken crude peaked at 420,000 bpd, resulting in bumper profits for those refiners. But Bakken crude's discount to U.S. crude slowly eroded as pipeline capacity out of North Dakota expanded, increasing competition for the heavy oil.
35-40 gravity crude isn't "heavy oil", unless you're used to naptha for a feeedstock.
« Last Edit: May 15, 2017, 01:25:10 pm by Smokin Joe »
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Offline thackney

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I think the article has another problem, though.  35-40 gravity crude isn't "heavy oil", unless you're used to naptha for a feeedstock.

Good catch, ignorant author...
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Offline Smokin Joe

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doesn't Warren Buffett make money on those trains?
Yep. The rail line hauling out from terminals in ND is BNSF. That, however was just a good business move on his part. Pipeline capacity of under 500K barrels a day waasn't coming on line, even with Keystone XL, which was only going to carry about 100K barrels of Bakken Crude per day (mainly because it makes the 'tar sands' kerogen go down the pipe much easier That's the "heavy crude", not the Bakken oil). That wasn't going to be anywhere enough takeaway capacity for the rapidly growing production, and hundreds of thousands of barrels of crude were going to have to find a way out. Locals in ND were already working on oil transshipment terminals for loading rail cars, and Buffett just foresaw that there would at least be a window in which that would dominate transport beyond the existing pipeline capacity, which North Dakota alone more than doubled, in terms of daily production.
That window may have been kept open longer by the Obama administration, but it would have been there, regardless. Shrewd move on Buffett's part.
How God must weep at humans' folly! Stand fast! God knows what he is doing!
Seventeen Techniques for Truth Suppression

Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

C S Lewis