Author Topic: China rejects North Korean coal shipments, opts for US supplies instead  (Read 4172 times)

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Offline Victoria33

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Re: China rejects North Korean coal shipments, opts for US supplies instead
« Reply #25 on: April 12, 2017, 04:42:28 pm »
@Victoria33
If that be the case, should we continue sending stern letters?   It is becoming increasingly clear that Trump had a meeting of the minds with Xi, and the surprising move of the Carl Vinson convinced him that Trump was playing hard ball.  I put up a thread, for the purpose of getting perspective and bringing into clear focus, how big a mess obama created. Getting it cleaned up is going to be a close run thing, at best.

@don-o

It does no good to bring up what Obama did or did not do and/or what Bush did or did not do.  The situation is what it is. 

You said, "If that be the case, should we continue sending stern letters?"
You said that in regard to my saying just the presence of the "Armada and submarines" off North Korea would/could be why Fat Kid would set off a nuclear bomb.

If Fat Kid did detonate a bomb we would be "responding" in an emergency/less coordinated way, rather than stopping his nukes on our timetable.  My opinion is, we need to make a plan, and take out his nuclear capability according to the plan.  We should have already done it years ago.  We are going to have to do that as no other country is going to do that.  In simple parlance, we need to "blow stuff up" so they can never make another nuke.

A case in point:  Saddam had a nuclear plant.  Without warning, Israel went there and blew it totally up.  The deed was done and no country could do anything about it.

We can do the same thing - blow up North Korea's nuclear plants and the nuclear bombs he already has.  No country could do anything about it and besides, it would be saving the lives of millions of people across the planet as Fat Kid WILL send those bombs, first to our country, then Israel and any other country Fat Kid doesn't like.  He is sitting in the middle of numerous powder kegs, with a match in his hand, about to launch powder kegs when he feels like it.

Russia is not going to blow up the world - Fat Kid will one day when he doesn't like the noodles he just got for lunch.  Our existence depends on what he had for lunch or because he got a knot in his boot strings.  If we don't blow that place up, millions of Americans are going to die.  He has already said, a few days ago, if we provoke him, he will blow us up.

Don't say the actual North Korean technicians who would be responsible for sending the bomb(s) wouldn't do it.  Everyone in that whole country does what Fat Kid says, or they die right then.  He has done that over and over - remember, "Past behavior is the best predictor of future behavior".

I think we have normalcy bias at work with North Korea.  Normalcy bias is, "if something has not happened in the past, it probably won't happen".  That thinking keeps us thinking, "Oh, it won't happen".  Fat Boy WILL kill us if we don't stop him.

I don't think we will bomb those plants/bombs.  We are going to wait until it is too late because we fear other countries won't like us if we bomb those plants/bombs because some people will be killed if we do that.  Those deaths would be caused by Fat Boy, not us, because he built those bombs and plans to kill us.  We bombed Japan, twice, in order to save lives but some Japanese died.  Those deaths were caused by Japan because they attacked us and we had to end that war.

Offline Smokin Joe

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Re: China rejects North Korean coal shipments, opts for US supplies instead
« Reply #26 on: April 12, 2017, 04:48:03 pm »
@Victoria33

If we know the locations of Kim's facilities, (IIRC, they are underground), then making sure they stay that way should not be too difficult.

Didn't we have a nuclear bunker buster? Couldn't a warhead be made that would give a spectral output and daughter product analysis identical to the NK ones?

Oopsie. Must have had an accident in the labs...

Game, set, and match, and deniability, too--especially with more than one power telling Kim to cool it. A solid round of denials, and with the fallout matching Kim's warheads, it could have credibility (and still leave doubts).
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Offline Frank Cannon

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Re: China rejects North Korean coal shipments, opts for US supplies instead
« Reply #27 on: April 12, 2017, 04:50:19 pm »
This refusal of NK coal by the Chinamen is tangible proof of a coherent foreign policy by Donny. Whether it was the threats of tariffs or getting involved in their region, China is now working towards our goals for the first time in a long time. NK can't afford to lose out on any coal money and now they are stuck with these loaded ships.

Offline skeeter

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Re: China rejects North Korean coal shipments, opts for US supplies instead
« Reply #28 on: April 12, 2017, 04:57:33 pm »
This refusal of NK coal by the Chinamen is tangible proof of a coherent foreign policy by Donny. Whether it was the threats of tariffs or getting involved in their region, China is now working towards our goals for the first time in a long time. NK can't afford to lose out on any coal money and now they are stuck with these loaded ships.

Dear Leader had better hurry up and print up another edition of the official book of state approved tree bark recipes 'cause aside from a few other state sponsors of terrorism china is about their only customer.

Offline don-o

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Re: China rejects North Korean coal shipments, opts for US supplies instead
« Reply #29 on: April 12, 2017, 05:02:25 pm »
This refusal of NK coal by the Chinamen is tangible proof of a coherent foreign policy by Donny. Whether it was the threats of tariffs or getting involved in their region, China is now working towards our goals for the first time in a long time. NK can't afford to lose out on any coal money and now they are stuck with these loaded ships.

Upthread I posted some links to the facts that China had previously agreed to limit coal from NK and let those limits slip. Plus there seems to be the matter of a shell game in their accounting of their other financial dealings.

Offline Victoria33

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Re: China rejects North Korean coal shipments, opts for US supplies instead
« Reply #30 on: April 12, 2017, 05:10:34 pm »
@Victoria33
If we know the locations of Kim's facilities, (IIRC, they are underground), then making sure they stay that way should not be too difficult.   Didn't we have a nuclear bunker buster? Couldn't a warhead be made that would give a spectral output and daughter product analysis identical to the NK ones?   Oopsie. Must have had an accident in the labs...  Game, set, and match, and deniability, too--especially with more than one power telling Kim to cool it. A solid round of denials, and with the fallout matching Kim's warheads, it could have credibility (and still leave doubts).
@Smokin Joe

It would depend on our delivery system.  A plane, or planes, would nail us as the one who dropped whatever number of bombs we would have to deliver.  I am fairly sure it would take a nuke to get that far underground and their facilities are likely spread out around the country, so likely more than one plane.

Now, we know that Trump said he sent an "Armada and submarine" - since we can't depend on his words to be truthful, it could be one submarine or more than one.  We have nukes on some submarines.  That would be the best way to deliver those bunker buster bombs if they could do it, or deliver the nuclear bombs if they were needed to do the job.

Hmm, I'm just seeing on CNN this message, "Tillerson wraps up meeting with Putin."  Perhaps he DID meet with Putin.

Offline Victoria33

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Re: China rejects North Korean coal shipments, opts for US supplies instead
« Reply #31 on: April 12, 2017, 05:12:48 pm »
This refusal of NK coal by the Chinamen is tangible proof of a coherent foreign policy by Donny. Whether it was the threats of tariffs or getting involved in their region, China is now working towards our goals for the first time in a long time. NK can't afford to lose out on any coal money and now they are stuck with these loaded ships.
@Frank Cannon

China started rejecting NK coal back in February.

Offline Victoria33

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Re: China rejects North Korean coal shipments, opts for US supplies instead
« Reply #32 on: April 12, 2017, 05:17:30 pm »
Upthread I posted some links to the facts that China had previously agreed to limit coal from NK and let those limits slip. Plus there seems to be the matter of a shell game in their accounting of their other financial dealings.
@don-o

Yes, I read where they got the NK coal anyway, hiding the way they did it.  However, now there are many tons of coal sitting in their harbors to go back to NK, and they did order coal from us.

Offline Frank Cannon

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Re: China rejects North Korean coal shipments, opts for US supplies instead
« Reply #33 on: April 12, 2017, 05:21:16 pm »
@Frank Cannon

China started rejecting NK coal back in February.

Oh right. Sorry. We should credit the President back then. Thank you President Obama.

Offline Smokin Joe

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Re: China rejects North Korean coal shipments, opts for US supplies instead
« Reply #34 on: April 12, 2017, 05:27:52 pm »
Oh right. Sorry. We should credit the President back then. Thank you President Obama.
Obama was still president in February? Those darned holdovers...
How God must weep at humans' folly! Stand fast! God knows what he is doing!
Seventeen Techniques for Truth Suppression

Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

C S Lewis

Offline Frank Cannon

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Re: China rejects North Korean coal shipments, opts for US supplies instead
« Reply #35 on: April 12, 2017, 05:33:54 pm »
Obama was still president in February? Those darned holdovers...

That poster I responded to is always correct. She will tell you so because she is an expert on stuff. Important stuff. If she says Obama was President in February, he was President in February.

Offline don-o

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Re: China rejects North Korean coal shipments, opts for US supplies instead
« Reply #36 on: April 12, 2017, 05:34:51 pm »
China had issued a ban on North Korean coal imports in April 2016, but later exploited a loophole to let it import $858 million worth nonetheless. Then, in December 2016, Beijing exceeded the monthly U.N.-imposed cap on North Korea’s exports.

http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/foreign-policy/321552-dont-be-fooled-chinas-ban-on-north-korean-coal-isnt-the

Offline Maj. Bill Martin

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Re: China rejects North Korean coal shipments, opts for US supplies instead
« Reply #37 on: April 12, 2017, 06:49:37 pm »
@don-o

Saw an interview with Trump today and he said something like this: "North Korea is doing bad things."  Then, quoting Trump's actual words, he said, "I've sent an Armada of ships with submarines over there."  Then, he said something like this, "If China doesn't help us, we will do it ourselves."  That was a dumb thing to say - he ratcheted up the idea of actually starting a war, bragging about sending ships and submarines.   The North Korea crazy man will likely drop a nuclear bomb because of this, just because he can.  People are objects to him, killing them is nothing.  I thought Trump would start a war but not this soon.  I hope this doesn't happen.

On the flip side, Trump's words also pressure the Chinese to be more active, because they don't want to see things blow up over there either.  And for all his titular power, Kim still must rely on his military for support.  And they can be influenced by the Chinese.

If you really think Kim is that erratic/sensitive, and that is enough for him to launch nukes, then he's pretty much certain to do it within the next decade or so anyway.  I'd rather bring things to a head before he's got that good ICBM, and when we can maximize our influence with the Chinese.

I don't think we can kick this can down the road any further.
« Last Edit: April 12, 2017, 06:49:55 pm by Maj. Bill Martin »

Offline Smokin Joe

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Re: China rejects North Korean coal shipments, opts for US supplies instead
« Reply #38 on: April 12, 2017, 07:00:20 pm »
On the flip side, Trump's words also pressure the Chinese to be more active, because they don't want to see things blow up over there either.  And for all his titular power, Kim still must rely on his military for support.  And they can be influenced by the Chinese.

If you really think Kim is that erratic/sensitive, and that is enough for him to launch nukes, then he's pretty much certain to do it within the next decade or so anyway.  I'd rather bring things to a head before he's got that good ICBM, and when we can maximize our influence with the Chinese.

I don't think we can kick this can down the road any further.
I generally think it is high time to stop kicking cans, grab the bull by the tail, and face the situation.
How God must weep at humans' folly! Stand fast! God knows what he is doing!
Seventeen Techniques for Truth Suppression

Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

C S Lewis

Offline ABX

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Re: China rejects North Korean coal shipments, opts for US supplies instead
« Reply #39 on: April 12, 2017, 07:04:40 pm »
Coal is NK's primary and almost only export of decent size (clothing is next on the list) and China is one of the few buyers.
http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/prk/

This is a starvation move on China's part. Probably more effective than dropping bombs.

Offline Maj. Bill Martin

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Re: China rejects North Korean coal shipments, opts for US supplies instead
« Reply #40 on: April 12, 2017, 07:06:33 pm »
My opinion is, we need to make a plan, and take out his nuclear capability according to the plan.  We should have already done it years ago.  We are going to have to do that as no other country is going to do that.  In simple parlance, we need to "blow stuff up" so they can never make another nuke.

Case in point:  Saddam had a nuclear plant.  Without warning, Israel went there and blew it totally up.  The deed was done and no country could do anything about it.

That was a completely different military situation.  Iraq's reactor was very poorly defended and hardened, and Israel's attack caught everyone by surprise.  The NK nuclear facilities, like the Iranian nuclear facilities, are dispersed and very well hardened.  And NK's air defense net is orders of magnitude superior to what the Iraqis and Syrians had.

Quote
do the same thing - blow up North Korea's nuclear plants and the nuclear bombs he already has.  No country could do anything about it and besides, it would be saving the lives of millions of people across the planet as Fat Kid WILL send those bombs, first to our country, then Israel and any other country Fat Kid doesn't like.  He is sitting in the middle of numerous powder kegs, with a match in his hand, about to launch powder kegs when he feels like it.

If we bombed NK's nuclear reactors and weapons facilities, and were (very) lucky enough to actually succeed in erasing their nuclear potential (including knowing where they've stored already built nukes, etc., and getting those as well), the very next thing that would happen is that he'd send a million troops over the border into South Korea.  Seoul would be hammered by a hundred thousand rounds of artillery.  You'd have 100,000 dead ROK civilians in a week.  Minimum.  Casualties among the military would be huge as well.

Quote
I think we have normalcy bias at work with North Korea.  Normalcy bias is, "if something has not happened in the past, it probably won't happen".  That thinking keeps us thinking, "Oh, it won't happen".  Fat Boy WILL kill us if we don't stop him.

With all due respect, I think you have a bias in favor of thinking that just because Israeli air raids in 80's stopped the Syrian and Iraqi programs, we can do the same thing today with North Korea.  Unless we actually used nukes to do that (which I don't think the fallout-sucking Japanese, Chinese, and South Koreans, and even the rest of the world -- would like very much) -- we cannot possibly have any confidence we could actually eliminate their nukes.  Cruise missiles simply aren't suitable, and we'd lose unholy numbers of planes flying into North Korea trying to hit those targets.  And that's assuming the ROK's would be on board with letting us launch a first strike from their airfields in the first place.  Especially given that the massive build-up in strike aircraft required to pull of those attacks would take weeks, and would obviously be considered by the Norks as a prelude to a first strike.

How do you think they'd respond to that build up?

Also, a bombing campaign of that magnitude is not instantaneous, and can't be done effectively as a "surprise".  And as soon as it started, if the Norks had a nuke loaded up to fire off at Seoul, they'd likely fire it off.  Millions of people incinerated as a direct consequence of a U.S. first strike.

The absolute best chance of successfully getting rid of the fat guy, and/or stopping their nuclear program, is in getting the Chinese to use the maximum leverage they have on the Nork military.
« Last Edit: April 12, 2017, 07:26:20 pm by Maj. Bill Martin »

Offline Smokin Joe

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Re: China rejects North Korean coal shipments, opts for US supplies instead
« Reply #41 on: April 12, 2017, 07:06:58 pm »
Coal is NK's primary and almost only export of decent size (clothing is next on the list) and China is one of the few buyers.
http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/prk/

This is a starvation move on China's part. Probably more effective than dropping bombs.
A serious economic sanction against the DPRK while giving the appearance of complying with UN sanctions and cutting a trade deal with the US?

Good PR deal for the Chinese.
How God must weep at humans' folly! Stand fast! God knows what he is doing!
Seventeen Techniques for Truth Suppression

Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

C S Lewis

Offline Maj. Bill Martin

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Re: China rejects North Korean coal shipments, opts for US supplies instead
« Reply #42 on: April 12, 2017, 07:11:32 pm »
A serious economic sanction against the DPRK while giving the appearance of complying with UN sanctions and cutting a trade deal with the US?

Good PR deal for the Chinese.

I'll happily accept a good PR deal for the Chinese if it helps deal with the problem in NK.

Offline EC

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Re: China rejects North Korean coal shipments, opts for US supplies instead
« Reply #43 on: April 12, 2017, 07:12:32 pm »
I'll happily accept a good PR deal for the Chinese if it helps deal with the problem in NK.

Yep. Got zero problem with them getting the credit, per Reagan's maxim.
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Offline Smokin Joe

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Re: China rejects North Korean coal shipments, opts for US supplies instead
« Reply #44 on: April 12, 2017, 07:14:03 pm »
I'll happily accept a good PR deal for the Chinese if it helps deal with the problem in NK.
Exactly. As long as they don't try to parley that into owning the whole ocean bottom west of Midway.
How God must weep at humans' folly! Stand fast! God knows what he is doing!
Seventeen Techniques for Truth Suppression

Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

C S Lewis

Offline Victoria33

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Re: China rejects North Korean coal shipments, opts for US supplies instead
« Reply #45 on: April 12, 2017, 08:03:39 pm »
That poster I responded to is always correct. She will tell you so because she is an expert on stuff. Important stuff. If she says Obama was President in February, he was President in February.
@Frank Cannon
@mystery-ak
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February is a month, Frank, not a president.
We are having intelligent conversation here, so butt out if you want to start your usual crap of attacking people.

Offline ABX

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Re: China rejects North Korean coal shipments, opts for US supplies instead
« Reply #46 on: April 12, 2017, 08:07:45 pm »
Exactly. As long as they don't try to parley that into owning the whole ocean bottom west of Midway.

One of the challenges our side has always faced. China does not take short term, reactionary steps. They don't think news-cycle to news-cycle or election to election. They plan things out 50 years in advance with more moves than we can imagine. It is just their general mindset. We (on all political sides) tend to look at the short term, what is good for the current leader for the current news cycle to get us past the next bump. 

Offline Frank Cannon

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Re: China rejects North Korean coal shipments, opts for US supplies instead
« Reply #47 on: April 12, 2017, 08:12:02 pm »
@Frank Cannon
@mystery-ak
@Mod1
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February is a month, Frank, not a president.
We are having intelligent conversation here, so butt out if you want to start your usual crap of attacking people.

What was insulting about my comment? Please elaborate in detail. Enthrall me with your acumen.

Offline Victoria33

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Re: China rejects North Korean coal shipments, opts for US supplies instead
« Reply #48 on: April 12, 2017, 08:14:31 pm »
@Maj. Bill Martin

You said, "With all due respect, I think you have a bias in favor of thinking that just because Israeli air raids in 80's stopped the Syrian and Iraqi programs, we can do the same thing today with North Korea."

No, I merely mentioned the Israeli attack as a matter of history, in that they didn't wait until Saddam had bombs ready to go, plus because they didn't publicize what they were going to do, it was over and done.  I do remember when they took out Syria's facility, too.

Offline Maj. Bill Martin

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Re: China rejects North Korean coal shipments, opts for US supplies instead
« Reply #49 on: April 12, 2017, 08:15:58 pm »
This is a starvation move on China's part. Probably more effective than dropping bombs.

Very good point.  Trying to take care of Kim militarily is not going to end well for anyone.  Especially South Koreans.