Is It Worse for GOP if Health Bill Fails or Passes?

[corbe]

Is It Worse for GOP if Health Bill Fails or Passes?

By David Thornton  |  March 23, 2017, 01:17pm  |  @captainkudzu


As the American Health Care Act heads toward an uncertain future in the House, there is speculation that Republicans might be better off if the bill is killed quickly in its first vote. With many members of the Freedom Caucus lining up against the bill, Margot Sanger-Katz and Nate Cohn, who respectively cover healthcare and elections for the New York Times opined on which was worse for the GOP, having the bill fail or having it pass.

“I think there are two big forces behind the progress of this bill,” Cohn said. “One is that no one wants to be responsible for its failure. So I agree that if the House passes something, there will be a lot more pressure for the Senate to figure something out. They might not be able to do it, but they might really try.”

“Two is that the speed is good for the Republicans,” he continued. “It has a better chance of passing if they move quickly, before public opinion turns against it. It’s better for the Republicans if it fails quickly, because they can move on to other things.”

“I think the Republicans are in a tough spot either way, but I think they’re better off if the bill fails,” Cohn continued. “They’ll get bad press, but voters have fairly short memories and I think the Republicans will move on. They’ll still be able to blame problems on Obamacare, even if it will be less credible. If they pass this plan, I have no idea how they intend to defend it. And I think hurting vulnerable Americans would go against the core of Trump’s appeal to the decisive Obama-Trump vote in the Midwest and Northeast, with little benefit. I think the best position for a lot of Republican members is to vote for the bill, but hope it fails. On the other hand, if the bill passes, it will be nice to be among the Republicans who voted against it.”

If the bill does manage to pass the House, it won’t pass the Senate as written. “The Senate has more of a moderate problem than the House, it appears,” said Sanger-Katz. “There are two senators — Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins — who don’t like that the bill defunds Planned Parenthood. There are a few senators from states that expanded Medicaid who are worried about changes to that program. There are also some concerns about the generosity of tax credits, particularly for older Americans.”

If the bill is amended to win the votes of Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Collins (R-Maine), it will face increasing opposition from Senators on the right such as Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Ted Cruz (R-Texas). Still, the best chance for repeal and replace seems to be to pass versions of the bill in both houses and work to improve it in the conference committee that irons out the differences.

The biggest problem for Republicans is the lack of a clear direction if the AHCA fails. “My sense is that there’s just no policy consensus about health care among Republicans,” Sanger-Katz said. “I think they would need that kind of vision and consensus to get something ready in advance.”

<..snip..>

http://theresurgent.com/is-it-worse-for-gop-if-health-bill-fails-or-passes/

[Jazzhead]

We unite, or we fail.  We unite, or we deserve to lose the Congress in 2018.  It's as simple as that.   

[GrouchoTex]

I vote worse.
Repeal and replace, as promised, not tweek around the edges.

[EasyAce]

I guess they're going to push to pass it so they can find out what's in it.

[Idaho_Cowboy]

I guess they're going to push to pass it so they can find out what's in it.

Lack of moral fiber. 

[EasyAce]

Lack of moral fiber. 

Well, they're not lacking in other fiber considering how full of you-know-what they are.

[Cyber Liberty]

We unite, or we fail.  We unite, or we deserve to lose the Congress in 2018.  It's as simple as that.

OK.  Unite behind whom?  The "moderate" republicans or the Freedom Caucus?

[IsailedawayfromFR]

better if only step one is approved, worse if the other crap is approved.

[Jazzhead]

OK.  Unite behind whom?  The "moderate" republicans or the Freedom Caucus?

There's only 51 GOP Senators,  so both moderates and conservatives will need to find common ground.   That's why the ACHA tweaks included things for both sides. 

If these were normal times,  the way to go would be to move to the center to pick up some Democratic support.   But no Dems will sign on,  which gives conservatives more leverage.  Still,  they need to compromise to the extent needed to satisfy the most moderate Republican.   

But failure cannot be an option.   Unity is the most important value right now.   

[EasyAce]

But failure cannot be an option.   Unity is the most important value right now.

Unity behind a terrible bill? Some unity. I thought that's what Republicans attacked when Democratic "unity"
gave us Obamacare in the first place.

By the way, it's just come forward---there won't be a vote on the bill today. CNN says it's been pushed back to Friday.
Hopefully it gets pushed even further back and they do the job right. Unity behind garbage still produces garbage.

[truth_seeker]

Ronald Reagan 1961 on socialized medicine

I propose more Americans were more happy with medical care in 1961 than now


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BnLa1BvtaxM

[Cyber Liberty]

There's only 51 GOP Senators,  so both moderates and conservatives will need to find common ground.   That's why the ACHA tweaks included things for both sides. 

If these were normal times,  the way to go would be to move to the center to pick up some Democratic support.   But no Dems will sign on,  which gives conservatives more leverage.  Still,  they need to compromise to the extent needed to satisfy the most moderate Republican.   

But failure cannot be an option.   Unity is the most important value right now.

All of that assumes "something, anything" must be done.  If one takes the more intelligent stance of "A bad bill is worse than no bill" then unity for unity's sake is a very poor strategy.  Unless, of course, one is secretly rooting for the other side.

[Idaho_Cowboy]

Unity behind a terrible bill? Some unity. I thought that's what Republicans attacked when Democratic "unity"
gave us Obamacare in the first place.

By the way, it's just come forward---there won't be a vote on the bill today. CNN says it's been pushed back to Friday.
Hopefully it gets pushed even further back and they do the job right. Unity behind garbage still produces garbage.

Unity behind a bill 17% of people support is not a winning strategy. Even if the polling is off no one and I mean no one likes this turkey.

[Idaho_Cowboy]

All of that assumes "something, anything" must be done.  If one takes the more intelligent stance of "A bad bill is worse than no bill" then unity for unity's sake is a very poor strategy.  Unless, of course, one is secretly rooting for the other side.

Let's not forget that a simple repeal would leave more people with coverage than Trump care.

https://www.cato.org/blog/cbo-more-lose-coverage-under-obamacare-lite-full-repeal

Instead @Jazzhead and other want fewer people to have insurance and everyone to pay more so they can feel good about themselves. I believe the hip new term for that is "virtue signalling".

[EasyAce]

Ronald Reagan 1961 on socialized medicine

I propose more Americans were more happy with medical care in 1961 than now


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BnLa1BvtaxM

You could almost smell the disasters coming when, among other things, they began zoning the family
doctor out of business about a decade after Mr. Reagan made that talk.

[GrouchoTex]

As of last night, Trump said vote for this or get stuck with Obamacare.
He also said he would support primary opponents for anyone who votes against this.

Unity?
Show me where?
It ain't coming from 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.

I like Trump's SCOTUS pick, his cabinet picks, most of his budget (he still increases the debt),  Keystone pipeline, and his border security measures.

I do not like this.

The executive branch has no business getting involved in  1/7th of the nation's economy, period.

If anything, it should be less involved than it was even before Obamacare.

This is bad, and any "R" that votes against it will have my support.

[Idaho_Cowboy]

As of last night, Trump said vote for this or get stuck with Obamacare.
He also said he would support primary opponents for anyone who votes against this.

Unity?
Show me where?
It ain't coming from 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.

I like Trump's SCOTUS pick, his cabinet picks, most of his budget (he still increases the debt),  Keystone pipeline, and his border security measures.

I do not like this.

The executive branch has no business getting involved in  17th of the nation's economy, period.

If anything, it should be less involved than it was even before Obamacare.

This is bad, and any "R" that votes against it will have my support.

That pretty much covers it. Maybe it's better than Obamacare, but I'm not convinced and it's a losing issue for the Republicans for a long time if they hang this albatross around their necks. Nobody likes this turkey, nobody. I really mean that. It's big leage unpopular. Ask anybody. Nobody knows unpopular like I do.
http://www.gopbriefingroom.com/index.php/topic,255390.msg1270443.html#msg1270443

[GrouchoTex]

That pretty much covers it. Maybe it's better than Obamacare, but I'm not convinced and it's a losing issue for the Republicans for a long time if they hang this albatross around their necks. Nobody likes this turkey, nobody. I really mean that. It's big leage unpopular. Ask anybody. Nobody knows unpopular like I do.
http://www.gopbriefingroom.com/index.php/topic,255390.msg1270443.html#msg1270443

ISWYDT

 

[bolobaby]

We unite, or we fail.  We unite, or we deserve to lose the Congress in 2018.  It's as simple as that.

Great, then let's unite behind a bill that is, you know, actually conservative.

[Cyber Liberty]

Great, then let's unite behind a bill that is, you know, actually conservative.

"Actually conservative" != "What a leftist tells us is conservative."