Author Topic: What happens if New York gets nuked? Scientists simulate 20 MILLION people in massive computer system to see how state would respond to a nuclear attack  (Read 1369 times)

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Offline mystery-ak

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What happens if New York gets nuked? Scientists simulate 20 MILLION people in massive computer system to see how state would respond to a nuclear attack

    Scientists at Virginia's George Mason University are running the 3-5-year study
    Their simulation puts up to 20 million 'agents' in a simulated New York
    Each one has family members, needs, jobs, and personal reactions to events
    Their reactions will be modeled over 30 virtual days, in 5-15-minute 'steps'
    Some may try to reach loved ones, while others will help injured strangers
    Researchers are using personal testimonies of disaster survivors to make agents
    By the end it should take a bank of computers two days to run the full simulation

By James Wilkinson For Dailymail.com

Published: 14:07 EDT, 18 March 2017 | Updated: 20:39 EDT, 18 March 2017


Scientists are conducting a massive computer simulation to work out how New York would respond to a nuclear attack in the heart of Manhattan.

The three-year, $450,000 project will simulate two nuclear detonations and their effects on up to 20 million virtual 'agents' each representing  civilian, first responder or other official over the course of 30 days.

But first they need to input data - a lot of data, taken from disaster reports across the US - to figure out how individuals really react to catastrophe.

'Computational social science is not experimental.' Professor William Kennedy of Virginia's George Mason University told The Atlantic. 'We don’t terrorize people and see how they behave.'

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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4327280/Scientists-simulate-nuclear-attack-New-York.html#ixzz4bjgqG6nl
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Offline EC

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I'm a little dubious about some of their modelling assumptions - especially the "stay in place" aspect that they seem to be emphasising. It doesn't match well with real life man made disasters.
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Offline bigheadfred

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What happens?  Uhhmm, it goes >boom<!?

And the rest of the country breaks out in celebration?
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Offline Smokin Joe

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I'm a little dubious about some of their modelling assumptions - especially the "stay in place" aspect that they seem to be emphasising. It doesn't match well with real life man made disasters.
I agree. Unless the model has some of the usual suspects on a wilding expedition, looting, burning, and cleaning out liquor stores, (something which might be omitted to not appear to have 'socioeconomic bias' in the model),  I doubt the results will be more than a regionally dystopian 'what if?'. That's all fun and whatnot, but nearly half a million bucks to crank up the old UNIVAC seems like a lot when libraries of speculation exist.
I'm not so sure that the folks upstate and elsewhere will take kindly to overwhelming swarms of refugees, many of whom might forget they are guests.
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Offline Gefn

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What happens to NJ?

We are probably toast too. If it's not nukes it's Christie.  22222frying pan ****slapping
« Last Edit: March 27, 2017, 09:42:57 am by Freya »
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Offline Gefn

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What happens?  Uhhmm, it goes >boom<!?

I think wouldn't the Empire St Building survive? That thing was built to last. Guggenheim too. It's all solid cement. I would hope Patience and Fortitude would survive too, they are cool Lions 🦁
« Last Edit: March 27, 2017, 09:46:16 am by Freya »
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Offline Smokin Joe

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What happens to NJ?

We are probably toast too. If it's not nukes it's Christie.  22222frying pan ****slapping
If you're really good, eat your vegetables, and say your prayers, you go to Florida?
 :smokin:
(Oh, I'm in trouble, now. I hope you are feeling better!)
How God must weep at humans' folly! Stand fast! God knows what he is doing!
Seventeen Techniques for Truth Suppression

Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

C S Lewis

Offline Smokin Joe

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I think wouldn't the Empire St Building survive? That thing was built to last. Guggenheim too. It's all solid cement.
A pretty large stub might, but it all depends on where the nukes went off, timing etc.
It survived getting hit by a B-25 in '47 1945, IIRC. Neat, tough building, (yep, I've been there).


(Edit to correct year of plane crash)
« Last Edit: March 27, 2017, 02:39:56 pm by Smokin Joe »
How God must weep at humans' folly! Stand fast! God knows what he is doing!
Seventeen Techniques for Truth Suppression

Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

C S Lewis

Offline Gefn

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If you're really good, eat your vegetables, and say your prayers, you go to Florida?
 :smokin:
(Oh, I'm in trouble, now. I hope you are feeling better!)

@Smokin Joe I'm being very good, and I'm eating my veggies, they give me two at lunch and dinner. The rehab hospital is Catholic run by catholic charities so I've been having help with prayers. It's really nice. They even have a priest that comes around every night and gives communication to those who want it, but it's juice not wine. ( one of the nurses told me they have to watch the diabetic patients so wine is a no no )

Everyday should be a little better although right now with the pain I'm in I would like to be at Ground Zero.

Of course I just had a pain pill less than half an hour ago. When it kicks in I'll be happy again! :)
« Last Edit: March 27, 2017, 09:53:39 am by Freya »
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Offline Gefn

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A pretty large stub might, but it all depends on where the nukes went off, timing etc.
It survived getting hit by a B-25 in '47, IIRC. Neat, tough building, (yep, I've been there).

Yeah, it's my second favorite building in the world. It also survived being owned by Leona Helmsley when Harry died.

I got to confess I like the Chrysler building better. It's Art Deco and I love Art Deco. And I love the eagles on it. But you can't tour it, alas.
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Offline Smokin Joe

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Yeah, it's my second favorite building in the world. It also survived being owned by Leona Helmsley when Harry died.

I got to confess I like the Chrysler building better. It's Art Deco and I love Art Deco. And I love the eagles on it. But you can't tour it, alas.
Those eagles are awesome, I agree!

http://www.archdaily.com/98222/ad-classics-chrysler-building-william-van-alen/5037f20c28ba0d599b0005ce-ad-classics-chrysler-building-william-van-alen-photo
How God must weep at humans' folly! Stand fast! God knows what he is doing!
Seventeen Techniques for Truth Suppression

Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

C S Lewis

Offline Gefn

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Offline thackney

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I think wouldn't the Empire St Building survive? That thing was built to last. Guggenheim too. It's all solid cement. I would hope Patience and Fortitude would survive too, they are cool Lions 🦁

The Empire State Building is composed of 60,000 tons of steel, 200,000 cubic feet of Indiana limestone and granite, 10 million bricks, and 730 tons of aluminum and stainless steel.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/buildingbig/wonder/structure/empire_state.html
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Offline EC

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Should have built it out of palm trees. Look at the background in LA after the alien attack in Independence Day. All the palm trees are still standing. :tongue2:

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