North Korea, South Korea, and nuclear weapons

[pjohns]

I learned, just yesterday, that North Korea no longer will renounce the first use of nuclear weapons against South Korea.

If North Korea strikes South Korea in this manner, it will surely bring in the latter's ally, the US.

And that, in turn, would certainly bring in North Korea's benefactor state, China.

In other words, the US and China could then be engaged off in a nuclear face-off.

And it is clear that neither (the madman) Kim Jong-un nor Donald Trump has any intention of backing off. 

Thoughts?

[Fishrrman]

IF the North Koreans conducted a first strike again South Korea, yes, the U.S. would respond, probably with a limited nuclear option.

China would make a lot of noise, but back away from involvement.

The United States is their greatest trading partner, and besides, they hold much of our debt.
Regardless of the outcome of any conflict, the Chinese would lose both the trade and forfeit all that they have "invested" in U.S. securities.

Unlike the North Koreans, the Chinese are somewhat rational.

[pjohns]

Our Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, has announced that the era of "strategic patience" with North Korea is now over.

Evidently, this means either (1) that we now encourage the nuclearization of South Korea and Japan, as an offset; or (2) that we plan a pre-emptive strike against North Korea.

I really cannot think of a third possible interpretation.

Can anyone else?

[TomSea]

US-China soften approach, pledge to work together on North Korea

18th March 2017

THE United States and China will work together to get nuclear-armed North Korea take “a different course”, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said on Saturday, softening previous criticism of Beijing after talks with his Chinese counterpart.

China has been irritated at being repeatedly told by Washington to rein in North Korea’s surging nuclear and ballistic missile programmes, one of a series of hurdles in ties between the world’s two largest economies.

But Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi described the talks with Tillerson as “candid, pragmatic and productive”. The two sides appeared to have made some progress or put aside differences on difficult issues, at least in advance of a planned summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump.

On Friday, Tillerson issued the Trump administration’s starkest warning yet to North Korea, saying in Seoul that a military response would be “on the table” if Pyongyang took action to threaten South Korean and US forces.

Tillerson took a softer line after the meeting with Wang. He told reporters both China and the United States noted efforts over the last two decades had not succeeded in curbing the threat posed by North Korea’s weapons programmes.

“We share a common view and a sense that tensions on the peninsula are quite high right now and that things have reached a rather dangerous level, and we’ve committed ourselves to doing everything we can to prevent any type of conflict from breaking out,” Tillerson said.

Read more at https://asiancorrespondent.com/2017/03/us-china-soften-approach-pledge-work-together-north-korea/#PRYLYqWwAZmuazf0.99

Tillerson was in Beijing China today, so we will see.

[DB]

Our Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, has announced that the era of "strategic patience" with North Korea is now over.

Evidently, this means either (1) that we now encourage the nuclearization of South Korea and Japan, as an offset; or (2) that we plan a pre-emptive strike against North Korea.

I really cannot think of a third possible interpretation.

Can anyone else?

Tell China to get their dog under control or we'll supply both SK and Japan with nukes. That's hard ball.

[pjohns]

Tell China to get their dog under control or we'll supply both SK and Japan with nukes. That's hard ball.

I quite agree.

We will, in fact, soon be selling an ABM system to the South Koreans.  (Of course, this is purely of a defensive nature.)

But the Chinese are simply apoplectic about this!

All of which does not really discomfit me...