By Yours Truly
http://throneberryfields.com/2017/03/04/who-and-what-to-watch-for-2017/Spring training doesn’t mean you keep your eyes away from a few key things to watch among baseball teams. Herewith a few of mine:
* Arizona Diamondbacks—A.J. Pollock. In 2015 he made a formidable tandem with Paul Goldschmidt. Last year, an elbow
injury in April took him out for all but twelve games and the Snakes went into a 69-win pit. If Pollock is back to full strength this
year, and the under-28 pitching shows some mettle, they could surprise some people.
* Atlanta Braves—Some call this year’s model a charming team of misfits and elders. But if some of those elders (like Bartolo
Colon, R.A. Dickey, Jaime Garcia, and Brandon Phillips) show even slivers of life left in their tanks, don’t be shocked if the still-
rebuilding Braves go all-in on cashing in any trade value they might show. Maybe even before the non-waiver deadline.
* Baltimore Orioles—Re-signing Mark Trumbo: big enough. Kevin Gausman’s likelihood for a bounce-up: critical, but you’re
encouraged after he threw 179 2/3 quality innings in 2016. A breakout season from Dylan Bundy after his harsh 2016 initiation:
vital. Pounding into Buck Showalter’s head that there are times when you need a stopper an inning or more before his officially
designated assignment:
Priceless. (Have they found Zack Britton yet?)
* Boston Red Sox—They can breathe now that David Price doesn’t need surgery. They’re still on pins and cushions (as the
lady once said on the radio) over whether Dave Dombrowski’s customary style—going all-in for the elites he wants, worrying about
what’s surrendered later—helps or hurts. Up and down the roster the Red Sox look postseason bound, but you have to worry whether
Dombrowski and his overseers didn’t shoot themselves in the feet keeping the purse strings just tight enough not to make a play
for Edwin Encarnacion while settling for Mitch Moreland. Remember: David Ortiz’s shoes take a lot more to fill.
* Chicago Cubs—That’s (how sweet it is, Cub Country!) the world champion Chicago Cubs to
you, peasants. And when you can say
goodbye to Dexter Fowler and Aroldis Chapman but still look forward to a) Wade Davis in the bullpen, b) Albert Almora (former first
round draft pick), c) the Schwarbinator for a full year, d) a top prospect (Ian Happ) a hair from major league ready (maybe this year,
too), and e) a defensive magician (Javier Baez) leading your sickly-deep backup crew, you’re not exactly going to be the league’s
great collapse story. You might even—no, we’re not going to jinx it and predict a back-to-back World Series ring. But it sure would
help big if Jason Heyward’s
remade/remodeled swing begins to pay off when the season begins; he’s still struggling at the plate
this spring but a remade swing isn’t exactly a big alarm in spring, either.
* Chicago White Sox—They’re rolling big dice on the south side of Chicago: hoping that the haul they brought in when flipping Chris
Sale and Adam Eaton—Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech, Lucas Giolito, and Reynaldo Lopez—all come of age at the same time and
sooner rather than later. And they’re probably not finished flipping for youth, either: David Robertson keeps getting whisperings of
sweet trade nothings in the front office’s ears, and Todd Frazier, Jose Abreu, and Jose Quintana could be non-waiver trade deadline chips, too.
* Cincinnati Reds—Still a year or two away from returning to serious contention. Marry Jose Peraza to Billy Hamilton, though, and
it’ll be fun to watch Reds games turn into track meets on the bases. Joey Votto may be the only bona-fide star left to these Reds,
but keep an eye on Raisel Iglesias out of the bullpen. The kid has a slider that can turn bats into licorice sticks, and he just might
send the thrill factor at Great American Ballpark through the ceiling.
* Cleveland Indians—They got
thatclose to winning the 2016 World Series. This year’s model may be even better. Especially having
a) Andrew Miller all season long; b) Edwin Encarnacion, period, since he’s an upgrade over departed Mike Napoli; c) healthy Carlos
Carrasco, Danny Salazar, and Yan Gomes; and, d) a little more outfield depth, to bolster the core that got them to within a run of taking
it all. I don’t want to jinx anything, of course, but an Indians-Cubs World Series rematch isn’t exactly an unrealistic thought.
* Colorado Rockies—Laugh if you must, but when adjusted for Coors Canaveral the Rockies’ starting rotation was baseball’s eighth
best last year and finished ninth in fielding-independent pitching. And they’re no older than 27 if that old, with righthander Jon Gray
striking out 26 percent of the batters he faced all year. Some call it the best pitching collection ever suiting up in Colorado. Others
say it’s going to make the Rockies fun to watch this year. I’m willing to say both. For now.
* Detroit Tigers—Don’t discount the emotional toll the death of much-respected, much-liked owner Mike Illitch—a genuinely decent
man
who took quiet care of civil rights pioneer Rosa Parks when he wasn’t trying to take care of his Tigers’ ability to win—may have
on this year’s model. The good news: The Tigers have the American League Rookie of the Year (Michael Fulmer) and the live arms
David Price brought them when they swapped him to the Blue Jays. The better news: A team who missed the wild card game by two
games has a few trade chips to use mid-year if they smell another postseason shot.
* Houston Astros—If a) Dallas Keuchel looks the way he did in the second half last year, before his shoulder put paid to the season;
b) gold prospect kids Carlos Correa and Alex Bregman break out big enough; c) Lance McCullers can pitch a full season with the results
to match his repertoire (he struck out 30.1 percent of his hitters, second in the league to Yu Darvish); and, d) Carlos Beltran and Josh
Reddick have merely average (for them) seasons, these Astros could end up making the AL West a three-way race right down to the
end. A mid-season trade for a quality starting pitcher wouldn’t be a terrible idea, either, according to most analysts—and they’re
right.
* Kansas City Royals—They may end up having an impact on other pennant races than their own: they have key walk-year or close to
walk-year men still aboard (Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar); they flipped walk-year Wade Davis and Jarrod
Dyson for major league ready talent (Jorge Soler, Nate Karns); their once-feared bullpen has only Kelvim Herrera still standing and dealing;
and, Alex Gordon is showing his baseball middle age. Their best hope may be a wild card berth, if that. But if they fall early and often,
start saying goodbye to what’s left of their 2015 World Series winner. Maybe even before the non-waiver deadline.
* Los Angeles Angels—They went all-in to shore up the defense not named Mike Trout. The big question now: whether Garret Richards
opting for stem-cell treatment instead of Tommy John surgery means a big payoff on the mound this season, even with Matt Shoemaker
returning from a skull fracture. The Angels can hit (they still have all-world Trout and Albert Pujols may be just a DH now, thanks to the
heels that have bedeviled him since his arrival in Anaheim, but he can still produce big enough), and they’ll look a lot better with their
gloves, but those pitching variables could mean the difference between contention and marking time.
* Los Angeles Dodgers—All they needed was a) to re-up Kenley Jansen; b) secure Rich Hill; and, c) secure a setup man, which they did
with Sergio Romo, whose closing days are long enough behind but who’s still a solid setup who can give you an extra inning. They have
Justin Turner looking completely reborn at third base. They have Corey Seager, the all-world rook from last year. They have Kenta Maeda
and a very promising kid named Julio Urias. And they have Clayton Kershaw, even if you have to worry just a trifle because of recent-
seasons’ injuries. What’s all that? Maybe another NL West title.
* Miami Marlins—Losing Jose Fernandez broke the game’s heart, considering his unashamed love for it, and despite the sad underwriting
to his death and its apparently litigious aftermath. On the field it’s going to hurt even more, since the Marlins’ rotation wasn’t exactly thick
and deep behind him, and other than one of baseball’s best outfields little else looks up to the task. On the other hand, the likelihood of
despised owner Jeffrey Loria selling the team this year should make things a little less harsh for them.
* Milwaukee Brewers—Watch Ryan Braun. He may still be one of the National League’s best hitters and defenders (he was actually seventh
among Show left fielders in defensive runs saved last year), but he may have the Brewers in a tricksy position: he gets his 10-5 rights in
May, and the Brewers have a newly-shrewd front office who just might entertain thoughts of a blockbuster flip for youth before that, if he
breaks out of the gate well enough and stays away from the strikeouts. Plus, having Jonathan Villar, Hernan Perez, and Keon Broxton aboard
means the Brewers, too, can turn ball games into basepath track meets. (In case you were wondering, the Brewers stole 181 bases last
year. Whitey Herzog, call your office.)
* Minnesota Twins—There’s a reason why
Baseball Prospectus has this year’s Twins winning 80 games at least and maybe even finishing
second in the AL Central: a kid corps that looks like fun and profit on the field. Especially former number one draft Bryan Buxton starting
to show his capabilities in the second half last year, and impressive German rookie Max Kepler. This year’s Twins will be many things. Dull
isn’t one of them.
* New York Mets—That rotation is still young, fast, and impressive. Yoenis Cespedes is back for the long haul. But the Mets have to determine
who steps in if David Wright is felled yet again by another injury, which just might put paid to his once-glittering career. They also have to
wonder if their bullpen can handle losing Jeurys Familia if he gets bagged on a suspension for domestic violence. The good news: So far this
spring the bullpen behind him looks pretty sharp. And if any piece of the rotation falters, Robert Gsellman can step up and in. They’re still
contenders, but they’ll also have to keep an eye on their elder regulars and consider a non-waiver trade deadline move to stay there.
* New York Yankees—They may be playing the Who’s “The Kids Are Alright” in the Bronx, and their smart dealings of the past couple of years
have rebuilt the Yankee farm system very well. But will the Baby Bombers pull them into the races this year, or will they keep the Yankees just
afloat enough to line the team up for big plays in next year’s free agency pool—which includes such barracuda as Bryce Harper and Manny
Machado, who aren’t even close to being old men and would fit perfectly with the Yankee youth movement?
* Oakland Athletics—They could have a surprise or two in the offing. Why? Because, whatever their other issues, the A’s a) still have Sonny Gray;
and, b) just rebuilt themselves into one of the deepest bullpens in the league. Their division is loaded and doesn’t look to have a lot of room
for them on the surface, but that bullpen could mean the A’s becoming this year’s pests and maybe next year’s contenders—depending on
whatever else they do to tinker and adjust at mid-year and next off-season.
* Philadelphia Phillies—They had a flukish contention early last year. They still have a pocketful of potential. Odubel Herrera could show a lot
more of his on-base potential, and those nice looking call-ups (J.P. Crawford, Roman Quinn, Jorge Alfaro, and Nick Williams) could give them
more plus than minus with full seasons of major league action. And they could do some work in the coming off-season, too. This year may or
may not see the Phillies smelling contention again, but 2018 might be different.
* Pittsburgh Pirates—Andrew McCutchen could have new life in right field, but he could also be looking at a new employer after 2018. And GM
Neal Huntington’s strategy of clinging to his best prospects may get its strongest scrutiny this year—Gregory Polanco, Jameson Taillon, Tyler
Glasnow, and Austin Meadows should look good, barring unforeseen circumstances. The big question is whether Huntington’s demurral from
making even one big push for even one major free agent (even from keeping Mark Melancon) didn’t mean the Pirates’ impressive postseason
run from 2013-2015 didn’t have to stop short of a World Series. And if the analysts are right and the Cubs are going to own the NL Central
for the next few years, how long before the Pirates get another realistic shot, even if they are a team that plays over their own projected
heads as often as not?
* San Diego Padres—The good news: Wil Myers finally started showing his all-around talent, and newly-signed Jered Weaver is an innings-
eater if nothing else anymore. The bad news: Manuel Margot and Hunter Renfroe look promising in the outfield but it isn’t certain they’re up
to a full major league season just yet. The worse news: Weaver may actually be the best of a rotation that wasn’t all that much to see before
his arrival. It promises to be another long, sad year of San Diego baseball.
* San Francisco Giants—They were done in in last year’s postseason—and damn near done out of a trip to the postseason at all—by a bullpen
that showed its age so rapidly the Giants blew the most saves of any team making the postseason since the save became an official statistic.
So the Giants overhauled the pen, bringing in Mark Melancon and pulling up impressive-enough looking Derek Law and Will Smith behind
him. That was pretty much all they needed to set themselves up for another postseason trip this year. But how deep they go aside from
Madison (Don't Look at Me!) Bumgarner depends on a few X-factors. Don’t be shocked if you see the Giants get a little busy at the non-waiver
trade deadline.
* Seattle Mariners—GM Jerry Dipoto is beginning to look like the Frank Lane of 21st Century general managers. But where Lane was notorious
for trading for its own sake—especially in terms of
dumping stars he simply disliked for whatever perverse reasons—Dipoto has a method to
his madness. He retooled for speed and defense, he shored up his pitching (if Felix Hernandez returns to his best form it’s gravy, almost), and
if the Mariners still show a missing piece Dipoto won’t be shy about hunting it down, all guns blazing. This is a key reason why the AL West
looks like a three-team race at minimum this year.
* St. Louis Cardinals—They’ve re-worked the bullpen, too. Seung-hwan Oh looks like their closer of the future unless Trevor Rosenthal figures
out whatever it was that cratered him last year (he was a big reason the Cardinals were only a game over .500 in one-run games), and Brett
Cecil behind him makes them a big one-two punch. Dexter Fowler fixes their big center field problem. And if Adam Wainwright really does
have the handle on his curve ball again, losing Alex Reyes to Tommy John surgery for the season won’t sting that badly. Add that to a yummy
schedule that gives them 38 chances to abuse the Reds and the Brewers, and this year’s Cardinals just might sneak into the postseason.
* Tampa Bay Rays—Not good: dealing away Drew Smyly and Logan Forsythe, and not doing a blessed thing to fortify a bad-enough bullpen.
But they do have Kevin Kiermaier with the potential to break out once and for all this year, and they do have a still-talented rotation even with
Smyly gone. They may finish dead last in the AL East again but they’re likely to be spoilers down the stretch, and there may be some surprises
on the farm or the trade market that could mean a much-improved 2018 edition.
* Texas Rangers—Prowling Latin America as all-in as the Rangers have recently may pay off big for them this year. If Jurickson Profar finally
shows his full potential, if boy wonder Nomar Mazara pulls things together fully this year, if Rougned Odor stays away from strikeouts
and Jose
Bautista (and
shakes off the error that sank the Rangers’ last chance last postseason), and if Yu Darvish and Martin Perez stay healthy and
productive all year, that’s the third team in that three-way AL West race everyone’s predicting.
* Toronto Blue Jays—They still have trouble in the outfield and first base, but a couple of bargain multi-year deals to Marco Estrada and J.A.
Happ and bargain deals with ground-ball relievers Joe Smith and J.P. Howell didn’t hurt. If Jose Bautista has one or two more good years in
him, and if imported utility man Steve Pearce provides some welcome lefthanded pop, the Jays could sneak into one more postseason as they
are. But a rebuild isn’t that far off in the future, either.
* Washington Nationals—Bryce Harper’s early spring mashing should encourage a team who had to bear Harper’s injury-compromised 2016
fall-off. The Nats may not want to surrender uber-prospect Pedro Severino, seeing him as a shortstop of the future, but they’re still looking to
deal for David Robertson to close games. The Nats otherwise are still rather stacked, even if Jayson Werth is showing his age too vividly and
Stephen Strasburg is a perennial disabled list question mark. They may win the NL East this year, again, but they have one Achilles heel:
newly-signed catcher Matt Wieters is considered one of baseball’s weakest pitch framers, and what’s behind him isn’t too impressive behind
the plate, either. With a pitching staff that lives on the corners at least half the time, that’s potentially fatal.
