Could Texas become the next swing state?

[TomSea]

Could Texas become the next swing state?

AUSTIN - Texas – the toss up.

It's a thought that may have sounded outrageous just four years ago, but now analysts are beginning to pay closer attention to.

That point was echoed during a speech earlier this month at the Scoot Inn in Austin by Congressman Joaquin Castro.

"I say in 2020, they treat Texas like a swing state," he explained, in response to a question from the audience about an apparent lack of DNC financial support in Texas during the 2016 race.

While President Trump carried the state, the relatively close margin was seen as a success for Democrats.

Compared to 2012, Democrats narrowed the gap from 16% to 9%, the closest they've been in 20 years.

But was the 2016 race an anomaly – or a harbinger of things to come?

...

In Texas, Trump lost the female vote, the under 30 vote, the non-white vote, and amongst voters who consider themselves ideologically moderate.

Continued: http://www.kvue.com/news/local/texas-news/could-texas-become-the-next-swing-state/415581582

[TomSea]

Thank you Jorge, thank you et al.

Trump haters will refuse to see it, but building new coalitions to beat the Democrats, really makes the Donald, one of the best bulwarks for US conservatism, emphasizing proper legal immigration and border security among other things.

[Sanguine]

Let's hope that Trump stays true to his word on illegal migration.  Otherwise, it could become true.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

Or Texas was still pissed about Cruz and didn't like Trump?

[dfwgator]

Texas is getting Californicated.

[TomSea]

Possible, does not mean it will happen.

All of the same, urban, lower Rio Grande Valley give the Democrat party a lot of votes.

Minorities now, maybe even Hispanic youngsters by themselves are the majority of students. Many Hispanics vote Republican in Texas but statewide, it is just something to watch.

Trump did well; wooing new coalitions across the country that few other candidates may not have been able to do.

The press abused the Bush presidency some, this is why I think we should support GOP candidates, because they will try to do the same. They likely are already doing this. It's unbelievable how much the GOP lost in 2008; and I personally count a lot of that in the animosity stirred up by the MSM and Democrats.

[Bigun]

I suppose that the sun could come up in the West one day but the likelihood is remote.  So is this.

[dfwgator]

I suppose that the sun could come up in the West one day but the likelihood is remote.  So is this.

The big cities like Dallas are getting Bluer with each election.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

Re: Could Texas become the next swing state?

Uh - all the swing states went GOP in the last election, from PA to FL to MI to OH.

This is really great news, that Texas is included in the swing states.

[the_doc]

Or Texas was still pissed about Cruz and didn't like Trump?

That is definitely the main reason why the vote was closer than normal for a POTUS race.  The only way Texas could become a swing state in a more reasonable race would be if the influx of Latinos continues at a high rate for a few more years.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

The big cities like Dallas are getting Bluer with each election.

An interesting analysis on past two Presidential election results.
http://urbanstudies.tcu.edu/mapping-the-presidential-election-in-dallas-fort-worth/

[TomSea]

By 2028, perhaps the race for Presidency will tighten up. That's why Trump, in bringing more people into the part, forming new coalitions is doing well. In this case, those coalitions haven't been in Texas but perhaps in the future, they will be. Trump brought in a lot of blue collar types from the Midwest. If Sanders had run against Trump, according to one editorial I read, Bernie might have gotten those votes.

[Smokin Joe]

Let's hope that Trump stays true to his word on illegal migration.  Otherwise, it could become true.

Don't forget that Texas is getting Californicated. Look what happened to that fine Western State of Colorado--it's Rocky Mountain High, in more ways than one.

[Sanguine]

Don't forget that Texas is getting Californicated. Look what happened to that fine Western State of Colorado--it's Rocky Mountain High, in more ways than one.

Unfortunately, we can't forget that.

[TomSea]

Obama was obviously trying to flood the country with refugees, illegal aliens, whomever could give the Democrats votes.

Trump's the man but some people won't see that, let alone call him the nastiest names.

[thackney]

Don't forget that Texas is getting Californicated. Look what happened to that fine Western State of Colorado--it's Rocky Mountain High, in more ways than one.

No, it really isn't.  Trump vote is not part of a trend.  Trump was far different than a typical Republican versus Democrat.

It has been decades since a democrat won ANY statewide election.

Take a look farther down the ballot:
http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/texas

Take a look at the make up for our state government that includes more than just this election:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_of_Texas

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_House_of_Representatives

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_Senate

[TomSea]

No, it really isn't.  Trump vote is not part of a trend.  Trump was far different than a typical Republican versus Democrat.

It has been decades since a democrat won ANY statewide election.

Take a look farther down the ballot:
http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/texas

Take a look at the make up for our state government that includes more than just this election:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_of_Texas

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_House_of_Representatives

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_Senate

Take a look at all the blue counties:



Hispanics are a huge voting bloc, yes, one can say we can count on many of them to vote Republican, maybe 30% but that is where the action will happen.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/12/02/donald-trump-did-not-win-34-of-latino-vote-in-texas-he-won-much-less/?utm_term=.2def22f025da

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/05/could-latino-voters-turn-deep-red-texas-democratic-by-2020/257738/

[thackney]

Take a look at all the blue counties:

Count the red, then count the blue and tell us what you found.

Hispanics are a huge voting bloc, yes, one can say we can count on many of them to vote Republican, maybe 30% but that is where the action will happen.

And yet year after year, now decade after a decade, not one democrat wins a single statewide election.  Compare that fact with other states and tell me again how Texas is turning blue.

[TomSea]

Count the red, then count the blue and tell us what you found.

And yet year after year, now decade after a decade, not one democrat wins a single statewide election.  Compare that fact with other states and tell me again how Texas is turning blue.

If anything, some or most of the out-of-staters may indeed help voting-wise. The Hispanic or Minority population is already the majority of the school system versus the aging population which will eventually see some demographics decrease at this rate.

2028 is where I see the real challenge, possibly 2024.

[Smokin Joe]

Count the red, then count the blue and tell us what you found.

And yet year after year, now decade after a decade, not one democrat wins a single statewide election.  Compare that fact with other states and tell me again how Texas is turning blue.

Watch the Austin infestation. Liberals go for the seats of power, and proselytize from there. Like looking at the US, county by county, you'd see an overwhelmingly Republican country, but the influence of those liberal enclaves is all out of proportion to either the number of counties they occupy or the land area because it is concentrated in the seats of power and influence. From there, the image of the rest of the State/Country can be distorted to the point that the legislature is affected, the Executive is affected, and change happens. It  is the only explanation for what has happened in the US, considering the vast swathes of conservative territory, and frankly, it can happen anywhere.

I'm not saying Texas will flip overnight, hardly, just remain vigilant. After all, Austin is, from what I have heard, the most liberal part of the State.

[TomSea]

The good news, is that minorities are not always ones to be counted on to vote for Democrats.

They say something like if 12%, I forget exactly the number, of the African Americans were to start voting Republican, just that would tremendously strengthen the GOP. I already know a lot of African Americans who indeed are Trump supporters.

The Democrats are not doing anything really for African Americans, Trump and others can bring more into the big tent to help Republicans in the long-run. Yes, many Hispanics also support the GOP; so the minorities voting for Democrats has happened historically but will not necessarily continue at the same rate if the GOP carries its message. Not special treatment, just watching over the interests of all Americans and African Americans should understand that.

Blue Collar workers, etc. A lot of people to go after for votes.

[thackney]

I'm not saying Texas will flip overnight, hardly, just remain vigilant. After all, Austin is, from what I have heard, the most liberal part of the State.

Austin has been that way for many decades.  It is no indication of a coming change.

[Smokin Joe]

Austin has been that way for many decades.  It is no indication of a coming change.

I'm glad of that, but I'd still keep an eye on 'em. Coyotes don't make good neighbors, especially in the hen house.

[Bigun]

I'm glad of that, but I'd still keep an eye on 'em. Coyotes don't make good neighbors, especially in the hen house.

With the Texas legislature currently in session it is easy to note that not all those elected here as republicans really are!  Not by a long shot in fact!

[Smokin Joe]

With the Texas legislature currently in session it is easy to note that not all those elected here as republicans really are!  Not by a long shot in fact!

Frankly, the Bush's hammered home to me what has become patently obvious.

 "Republican" is a brand now, not a specific set of principles or beliefs.

While Republicans commonly hold some Chinese Dinner menu grab of Conservative beliefs (one from column A, one from Column B, with six you get egg roll), they are not necessarily aligned with conservative principles many of us might regard as fundamental, and often are considered "conservative" only in comparison to those they are running against, a sort of 'conservative relativism' that has hurt "conservative" as a descriptive term as well.
That doesn't even include those who 'self-identify' as conservatives, and then proceed to endorse liberal talking points.