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Offline r9etb

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Re: First Manned Trip to Mars: Delayed (at Least) 20 Years
« Reply #25 on: February 02, 2017, 05:58:31 pm »
Did anyone really expect NASA to perform the first manned trip to Mars?  I know I didn't.  It's more likely that SpaceX will land private astronauts there long before NASA does.

And why would they go?  I mean, Elon loves the publicity of saying so, but ... why would they go there?

And just to be clear: radiation does not distinguish between NASA and private astronauts.

Offline Doug Loss

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Re: First Manned Trip to Mars: Delayed (at Least) 20 Years
« Reply #26 on: February 02, 2017, 06:15:47 pm »
And why would they go?  I mean, Elon loves the publicity of saying so, but ... why would they go there?

And just to be clear: radiation does not distinguish between NASA and private astronauts.

No, radiation doesn't.  But willpower seems to.
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Offline Just_Victor

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Re: First Manned Trip to Mars: Delayed (at Least) 20 Years
« Reply #27 on: February 02, 2017, 06:18:45 pm »
No, radiation doesn't.  But willpower seems to.

The only thing NASA is lacking is the executive commitment.  Perhaps that is going to change.
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Offline Doug Loss

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Re: First Manned Trip to Mars: Delayed (at Least) 20 Years
« Reply #28 on: February 02, 2017, 07:11:21 pm »
The only thing NASA is lacking is the executive commitment.  Perhaps that is going to change.

The nature of any political organization is that the commitment only lasts as long as the administration that makes it.  And for a big-ticket item like a manned Mars mission, that's not long enough.
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Offline Just_Victor

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Re: First Manned Trip to Mars: Delayed (at Least) 20 Years
« Reply #29 on: February 02, 2017, 07:20:18 pm »
The nature of any political organization is that the commitment only lasts as long as the administration that makes it.  And for a big-ticket item like a manned Mars mission, that's not long enough.
Probably true.  Maybe if NASA could just get the mission underway before the next administration so that backing out isn't an option.
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Offline r9etb

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Re: First Manned Trip to Mars: Delayed (at Least) 20 Years
« Reply #30 on: February 02, 2017, 07:22:00 pm »
The nature of any political organization is that the commitment only lasts as long as the administration that makes it.  And for a big-ticket item like a manned Mars mission, that's not long enough.

Whereas a private venture would have to rely on either a reasonable return on investment within a reasonable time; or the undivided attention of uber-rich hobbyists with money to burn.

There are a couple of things to keep in mind.

First, we're really just talking about the word manned.  Unmanned Mars missions are quite common these days.  So any discussion has to focus on the rationale for sending people, rather than robots.

Second, if we decide to do a manned mission, we have to consider the best "business case" for getting it done. 

And to be honest, a large-scale government program is perhaps the better business plan, if only because big money is easier to come by, and ROI is not an issue. 

The downside of a government program is that it typically has to address some long-term threat, rather than some nebulous feel-good pabulum about mankind's need to explore.  Which is why, for example, the early Space Program was undertaken to address the threat of Russian dominance in space.

The downside of a private program is that the ROI just doesn't seem to be there, and hobbyists generally don't have billions to toss down the rathole.
« Last Edit: February 02, 2017, 07:23:23 pm by r9etb »

Offline musiclady

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Re: First Manned Trip to Mars: Delayed (at Least) 20 Years
« Reply #31 on: February 02, 2017, 07:23:38 pm »
Well, Darn. I'll be old by then.

I was thinking the same thing.

Those of us who remember Yuri Gagarin, Sputnik, Alan Shepard, and John Glenn might not be too alert by the time this happens.    ^-^

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Offline Joe Wooten

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Re: First Manned Trip to Mars: Delayed (at Least) 20 Years
« Reply #32 on: February 05, 2017, 05:08:45 pm »
We've known radiation was going to be a problem for far more than ten years.

Yeah. You and I have discussed this before on other boards. That is one reason we did not go to Mars with manned missions 30 years ago, though the cost trumped everything else.

Offline Joe Wooten

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Re: First Manned Trip to Mars: Delayed (at Least) 20 Years
« Reply #33 on: February 05, 2017, 05:10:09 pm »
Radiation is relatively easy to deal with.

Water is a great shielding material.

Yes it is, BUT, the cost of boosting that water into LEO is huge. You will need a lot of it.

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Re: First Manned Trip to Mars: Delayed (at Least) 20 Years
« Reply #34 on: February 05, 2017, 05:35:18 pm »
Yes it is, BUT, the cost of boosting that water into LEO is huge. You will need a lot of it.

Use the water they said they found on the moon. (I know that'd be even more expensive)

Offline Joe Wooten

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Re: First Manned Trip to Mars: Delayed (at Least) 20 Years
« Reply #35 on: February 06, 2017, 01:55:12 am »
Use the water they said they found on the moon. (I know that'd be even more expensive)

That's why we go back to the moon first. Get the infrastructure built and learn how to survive and thrive on a world a lot closer to home in case the fecal matter hits the rotary air moving device.....