Welcome To The 4th Industrial Revolution

[corbe]

Welcome To The 4th Industrial Revolution

Jan 092017


An interesting read about the future…

In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide.

Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt.What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 10 years and, most people won’t see it coming.

Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on film again?

Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore’s law. So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a time, before it became way superior and became mainstream in only a few short years.

It will now happen again with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture, and jobs. Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution. Welcome to the Exponential Age.

Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.
•Uber is just a software tool, they don’t own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world.
•Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don’t own any properties.
•Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go-player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.
•In the US , young lawyers already don’t get jobs. Because of IBM’s Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans.
 So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% fewer lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain.
•Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, its 4 times more accurate than human nurses.
•Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.
•Autonomous cars : In 2018 the first self driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don’t want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving.Our kids will never get a driver’s licence and will never own a car.  It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for that. We can transform former parking spaces into parks.1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 60,000 miles (100,000 km), with autonomous driving that will drop to 1 accident in 6million miles (10 million km). That will save a million lives each year.Most car companies will probably become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; are completely terrified of Tesla.Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.
   
 Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.
   
 Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity.
   
•Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can now see the burgeoning impact.

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http://www.commonsenseevaluation.com/2017/01/09/welcome-4th-industrial-revolution/#sthash.Odibm3dl.xJCHTq5X.dpbs

[Free Vulcan]

And this is why I'm working to go the other direction, more Amish and get the hell out of The Matrix.

[thackney]

You don’t want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving.Our kids will never get a driver’s licence and will never own a car.

Now imagine an attempted hurricane evacuation from that city.

[Sanguine]

Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.

I don't want people to move out where I live.  I want them to stay in their cities and not turn rural areas into trendy 'burbs like they have in my hometown.

  

[Oceander]

I don't own my new 2017 car anyway, right now.  I lease because it comes off warranty at the same time the lease ends and I don't really want to be paying out of pocket to fix all the fancy gizmos as they start breaking down.  I love the backup camera, but if the car gets rear ended in four years, that alone is going to cost a lot of money to fix.  And insurance isn't a guarantee anymore.  If the airbags go off that pretty much means the insurance company is going to total the car instead of repairing it because replacing the airbag units is so expensive.  I have a friend who had a four year old Ford Focus.  Last year in the winter he slid through a stoplight and hit another car at about 10mph or so. There was some damage on the front end, but nothing that couldn't be repaired.  But the front and side airbags went off, so the insurance company totaled the car because it would have cost more than $6k to fix the car and replace the airbags.  Get a lease with comprehensive and gap coverage insurance, and leave the owning for old cars. 

[Idaho_Cowboy]

Now imagine an attempted hurricane evacuation from that city.

Don't worry subject the government will save you. Remember Katrina?

[Sanguine]

Don't worry subject the government will save you. Remember Katrina?

Oh, that's right:

[Joe Wooten]

I don't want people to move out where I live.  I want them to stay in their cities and not turn rural areas into trendy 'burbs like they have in my hometown.

 

 

[Joe Wooten]

Chicago and C(r)ook County refugees have turned the small rural towns I live near into overpopulated dens. They brought in the "diverse" ethnicities and the crime rate has skyrocketed.

[Joe Wooten]

Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity.

Battery technology will have to improve before the IC engines leave the scene. That will not happen anytime soon.

[Cripplecreek]

I don't want people to move out where I live.  I want them to stay in their cities and not turn rural areas into trendy 'burbs like they have in my hometown.

 

Yup. There are zero jobs in my little town and that is part of why I like it. We have one party store run by the owner and his wife and they don't even sell gas.

[Sanguine]

Yup. There are zero jobs in my little town and that is part of why I like it. We have one party store run by the owner and his wife and they don't even sell gas.

Yeah, there weren't jobs in my small town; still are very few.  They all troupe into the big city every day to work.