I have a real problem in believing that a company can make as much profit at $45/b then at 2X the price of a few years ago.
Technology has improved, no question, and the hammered service sector is not asking as much for their services, but both are not enough to make that much difference.
I suspect that companies are 'cherry-picking' locations as far fewer wells are getting drilled and completed.
Another way to say it: the average of wells now being drilled/completed are far higher now compared to the average of a few years ago. I believe the greatly increased productivity of the recent wells are not just due to technology and lessened costs, it is also do to better geology.
@Smokin Joe - weigh in on the Bakken and educate the rest of us.
Not much change evident in the Bakken, so far, but a slow increase in the number of rigs since Spetember (to 40 from 34). I expect the nest big thing will be the Permian Basin, and most of the new efforts will go there. While Bakken development will continue, I expect much of that will be in the hotspots until the price climbs, and then I expect the DUC wells to be completed and the DUC numbers to drop as drilling slowly increases.
One shot in the arm would be the completion of the Dakota Access Pipeline, but that is still embroiled in controversy ginned up by radical environmentalists and a tribe of snakes. (I have no general problems with Native peoples, my wife is Chippewa, but the bunch perpetrating the farce against the pipeline I have no use for.)
The effect of having the pipeline in operation would be that the expense of shipping oil to refineries would drop by as much as $5/bbl, which would have the same effect for producers as a price increase. Besides the weather and snow pack, having that project on hold effectively delays feeder pipeline projects which tie into the Dakota Access Pipeline.
I hope Mr. Trump does well at ordering some of this crap concluded, and that the industry will prevail in this situation.
The cost to not only the pipeline company, but to the State of ND, oil producers, unemployed workers, and royalty interest (mineral rights) owners has been tremendous, and will affect every landowner in the State when property taxes are due (oil money is used to offset the school portion of property taxes).
There is a great deal more info on this and other issues facing the industry at the NDIC website, here:
https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/directorscut/directorscut-2016-12-13.pdf albeit a couple weeks old, it is still relevant.