Ignoring The GOP Establishment’s Advice Might Have Been Trump’s Smartest Move

[corbe]

Ignoring The GOP Establishment’s Advice Might Have Been Trump’s Smartest Move

Based off the advice given in the GOP’s 2012 autopsy, one would have expected a candidate such as Donald Trump to stand little chance of winning in 2016.

Frank Cannon and Terry Schilling
By Frank Cannon and Terry Schilling
December 2, 2016
 


With this week’s announcement that Donald Trump has officially won the vote in Michigan, the 2016 presidential election has just about finally come to a close — last-minute recount petitions notwithstanding. With Republicans now set to control both houses of Congress, the White House, and numerous governor’s mansions and state houses, GOP optimism has skyrocketed as party leaders begin to plan the next year’s agenda.

In fact, in the wake of Trump’s surprise electoral victory, it has become distressingly easy to forget exactly how much America’s political outlook has changed over the course of just a few short years.

Back in early 2013, the future of the Republican Party looked bleak — or so we were told. “Demographics are destiny,” Washington pundits gleefully parroted ad nauseum. “Republicans may never win a presidential election again!” The sound defeat of Mitt Romney, whom the GOP establishment regarded as The Perfect Candidate™, could only mean the beginning of a permanent Democratic majority.

The Autopsy that Bombed

Amidst the doom and gloom, the Republican National Committee commissioned a report, widely dubbed an “autopsy,” which recommended several changes to facilitate a victory in 2016. According to the report authors, Republicans needed to “modernize the party,” become more “inclusive and welcoming,” and “do a better job connecting people to our policies.”

It encouraged party leaders to spend more effort on outreach to minorities, and endorsed support for comprehensive immigration reform to appeal to Hispanics, while arguing social issues ought to be de-emphasized, so as not to seem “intolerant” to young people. It also took no issue with the GOP’s bland economic messaging, despite Romney famously losing the “cares about people like me” question by a whopping 63 points.

Based off the advice given in the autopsy, one would have expected a candidate such as Trump to stand little chance of winning in 2016. Trump took a hard line on immigration, denounced “political correctness,” and made his opposition to abortion a key part of his campaign.

Indeed, one of the autopsy’s authors publicly left the Republican Party following Trump’s nomination, while media outlets declared the GOP was “on the brink of another potential presidential defeat” due to the direction Trump’s campaign had taken. Little did they know Trump was on the verge of a monumental upset, winning more electoral votes than any Republican presidential candidate since 1988.

So how could such a result have happened? For answers, one need only consult another report written in 2013 by the American Principles Project (APP), countering the RNC’s autopsy. According to APP, the RNC autopsy report had two serious flaws: 1) it failed to acknowledge the unpopularity of the standard GOP economic message as best exemplified in the Romney campaign, and 2) it falsely assumed that abandoning socially conservative positions would be advantageous for Republicans. Trump’s victory in 2016 — and his ability to build the winning Republican coalition that Romney could not — proved APP right on both counts.

GOP Economicspeak Is Too Rich-Focused

Let’s look first at point number one. Although the RNC autopsy did admit that the GOP often failed to “connect with voters’ concerns,” it did not tie this failure to anything specific, nor did it acknowledge that its own stale economic messaging might be the problem. The APP report, by contrast, identified a major reason why Romney and Republicans failed to connect with voters in 2012: their message was too focused on “job creators.”


In 2012, the GOP positioned itself as the party in favor of ‘job creators.’ It was a clever neologism, intended to suggest that policies benefiting business, especially small business, would help the middle class. But it may have been too clever by half. One of the reasons the Romney economic message failed is that positioning oneself as an experienced ‘job creator’ working for other ‘job creators,’ albeit to increase jobs, can backfire. Republicans say ‘job creators,” but voters correctly hear “my boss.’ And voters increasingly hate their bosses.

Although Romney’s “job creator” messaging flopped, Trump succeeded by appealing more directly to voters’ concerns. While he, too, portrayed himself as a savvy businessman, he focused his rhetoric on stagnant wages and the difficulties facing workers, particularly those who have seen their jobs shipped overseas. (For a good example of the overall thrust of Trump’s economic message, see this ad.) While Romney was the candidate in 2012 most likely to be seen as out-of-touch with the average American, Trump flipped the script, effectively branding Hillary Clinton in the same way.

Social Issues Aren’t a Third Rail

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http://thefederalist.com/2016/12/02/ignoring-gop-establishments-advice-might-trumps-smartest-move/

[Cripplecreek]

The fact that the establishment got on board with him helped plenty.

[Rivergirl]

Heard a FNCer on the radio this morning.  He said it was wonderful that a man with no political or military experience was now going to be president.