Author Topic: Global average temperatures over land have plummeted by more than 1C -- biggest and steepest fall on record  (Read 999 times)

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Offline SirLinksALot

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SOURCE: DAILY MAIL

URL: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3974846/Stunning-new-data-indicates-El-Nino-drove-record-highs-global-temperatures-suggesting-rise-not-man-emissions.html

By DAVID ROSE



* Global average temperatures over land have plummeted by more than 1C
* Comes amid mounting evidence run of record temperatures about to end
* The fall, revealed by Nasa satellites, has been caused by the end of El Nino


Global average temperatures over land have plummeted by more than 1C since the middle of this year – their biggest and steepest fall on record.

The news comes amid mounting evidence that the recent run of world record high temperatures is about to end.

The fall, revealed by Nasa satellite measurements of the lower atmosphere, has been caused by the end of El Nino – the warming of surface waters in a vast area of the Pacific west of Central America.


Global average temperatures over land have plummeted by more than 1C since the middle of this year – their biggest and steepest fall on record

Some scientists, including Dr Gavin Schmidt, head of Nasa’s climate division, have claimed that the recent highs were mainly the result of long-term global warming.

Others have argued that the records were caused by El Nino, a complex natural phenomenon that takes place every few years, and has nothing to do with greenhouse gas emissions by humans.

The new fall in temperatures suggests they were right.

Big El Ninos always have an immense impact on world weather, triggering higher than normal temperatures over huge swathes of the world. The 2015-16 El Nino was probably the strongest since accurate measurements began, with the water up to 3C warmer than usual.

It has now been replaced by a La Nina event – when the water in the same Pacific region turns colder than normal.

This also has worldwide impacts, driving temperatures down rather than up.

The satellite measurements over land respond quickly to El Nino and La Nina. Temperatures over the sea are also falling, but not as fast, because the sea retains heat for longer.

This means it is possible that by some yardsticks, 2016 will be declared as hot as 2015 or even slightly hotter – because El Nino did not vanish until the middle of the year.

But it is almost certain that next year, large falls will also be measured over the oceans, and by weather station thermometers on the surface of the planet – exactly as happened after the end of the last very strong El Nino in 1998. If so, some experts will be forced to eat their words.

Last year, Dr Schmidt said 2015 would have been a record hot year even without El Nino.

‘The reason why this is such a warm record year is because of the long-term underlying trend, the cumulative effect of the long-term warming trend of our Earth,’ he said. This was ‘mainly caused’ by the emission of greenhouse gases by humans.

Dr Schmidt also denied that there was any ‘pause’ or ‘hiatus’ in global warming between the 1998 and 2015 El Ninos.

But on its website home page yesterday, Nasa featured a new study which said there was a hiatus in global warming before the recent El Nino, and discussed why this was so. Last night Dr Schmidt had not returned a request for comment.

However, both his own position, and his Nasa division, may be in jeopardy. US President-elect Donald Trump is an avowed climate change sceptic, who once claimed it was a hoax invented by China.

Last week, Mr Trump’s science adviser Bob Walker said he was likely to axe Nasa’s $1.9 billion (about £1.4 billion) climate research budget.

Other experts have also disputed Dr Schmidt’s claims. Professor Judith Curry, of the Georgia Institute of Technology, and president of the Climate Forecast Applications Network, said yesterday: ‘I disagree with Gavin. The record warm years of 2015 and 2016 were primarily caused by the super El Nino.’

The slowdown in warming was, she added, real, and all the evidence suggested that since 1998, the rate of global warming has been much slower than predicted by computer models – about 1C per century.

David Whitehouse, a scientist who works with Lord Lawson’s sceptic Global Warming Policy Foundation, said the massive fall in temperatures following the end of El Nino meant the warming hiatus or slowdown may be coming back.

‘According to the satellites, the late 2016 temperatures are returning to the levels they were at after the 1998 El Nino.

The data clearly shows El Nino for what it was – a short-term weather event,’ he said



Online andy58-in-nh

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"Climate change" is what we used to call WEATHER.
"The most terrifying force of death, comes from the hands of Men who wanted to be left Alone. They try, so very hard, to mind their own business and provide for themselves and those they love. They resist every impulse to fight back, knowing the forced and permanent change of life that will come from it. They know, that the moment they fight back, their lives as they have lived them, are over. -Alexander Solzhenitsyn

Offline Sanguine

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"Climate change" is what we used to call WEATHER.

And, "global warming" is a meaningless phrase, and it doesn't cause cooler temperatures. 

Oceander

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And, "global warming" is a meaningless phrase, and it doesn't cause cooler temperatures. 

Actually, assuming global warming was taking place, it could cause localized drops in temperature because what it essentially represents is additional energy in the atmosphere, and that energy could pull more cold air down from the poles and into temperate areas, causing localized drops in temperature in those areas; however, on a global level it wouldn't cause dropping global mean temperatures (basically by definition).

Offline LateForLunch

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Actually, assuming global warming was taking place, it could cause localized drops in temperature because what it essentially represents is additional energy in the atmosphere, and that energy could pull more cold air down from the poles and into temperate areas, causing localized drops in temperature in those areas; however, on a global level it wouldn't cause dropping global mean temperatures (basically by definition).

Good post. However I am not aware of any conclusive research which has demonstrated that the effect you describe has ever been observed or documented to be attributable to the factors you cite.

You raise however a vital point that most AGW proponents ignore which is the distinction between local phenomena (such as urbanization, which is a local phenomenon)and global effects.

One similar real occurrence to the one you describe as being theoretically possible is from geologic history. The formation of Antarctica about 4 million years ago is thought to have happened because warmer global temperatures generally (accompanied curiously enough by a significant DROP in global CO2 levels) created a shift in ocean currents from north-south to east-west effectively isolating Antarctica from warmer ocean currents and contributing to long-term cooling. Ultimately over the eons (millions of years), the last major land masses separated from Antarctica, allowing warmer ocean currents to submerge into the deeper realms and travel around it without contributing warmth, reducing the average temperatures in the surrounding waters and eventually leading to permafrost and the barren wasteland it still is today.
« Last Edit: December 14, 2016, 09:20:48 pm by LateForLunch »
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Offline LateForLunch

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And, "global warming" is a meaningless phrase, and it doesn't cause cooler temperatures.

Well to some degree global warming has become a catch phrase. And since most people who use it to support AGW speculations have absolutely no idea how physical geographical effects are mediated, but are merely repeating things taken on faith from people who claim to understand, hearing that term is usually an alarm signal to me that the person using it probably has very little accurate knowledge about or workable understanding of the topic.

Several things must be kept in mind when discussing AGW. First it is not even a theory, it is a speculative conjecture. A theory can be tested by comparing predicted results to real results. And since no scientific "modeling" based on AGW ideas has ever successfully predicted real observations, it does not even qualify as a theory.

Another is that any discussion of "average global temperatures" must include the fact that reliable, consistently-accurate, durable thermometers did not widely exist until well into the 20th century. So any accurate global "temperature measurements" could not even have existed prior to that time. Science has to rely on much-less accurate means to determine average atmospheric temperatures prior to the deployment of accurate thermometers where the margin of error is often 30 degrees one way or the other!! The further back in history we go, the greater the average margin of error.

Even after thermometers were created which could accurately measure temperature, the placement of those thermometers by researchers or their assistants was often done haphazardly, stupidly or worst of all, to purposefully give misleading measurements.

For example, recent studies found that weather station monitors used in data gathering to determine average global temperatures have recently been set up on hot roof tops, near heat vents, on hot asphalt surfaces, in direct sunlight and other places which obviously do not give accurate atmospheric readings.

Urbanization is the effect when materials such as asphalt, which reflect solar heat back into the atmosphere instead of absorbing it, replace natural surfaces. In such cases, local temperatures have risen locally but not global temperature. The way they know this is that when a city such as say Boston added hundreds of square miles of asphalt in the form of roads or structural roofs, the average atmospheric temperature of the urban Boston area did increase slightly from previously measured levels. However, temperature in the immediate vicinity outside the city area did not increase, which means that the temperature increase was entirely local (urban) and that therefore it could not be correctly seen as "global warming".

Probably the biggest factor is that there may in fact be a time when average global atmospheric temperatures do increase. That has happened repeatedly as documented by the geologic record, long before human beings could reasonably be considered a possibly significant element of physical geography or mediation/distribution of black body radiation (solar heat) within the atmosphere.

There is a great deal of evidence which suggests strongly that the single greatest factor in warming of the planet's atmosphere would be variations in solar output and that this actually shows that a cycle of drastic cooling (possibly even another ice age) may be on the horizon. Until there is some testable, objective scientific evidence that shows conclusively that there is some causal link between human activity and significant average climatic temperature increases, it is logical to assume that any major changes in average climatic temperature are largely a natural phenomenon.

Therefore, arguably the greater and perhaps only prudent question for science would be how to ameliorate the EFFECTS of the warming not how to attempt to reduce the warming itself.

Last but not least, there are recent studies which show that any climatic atmospheric warming has had and will continue to have a net beneficial effect on the planet and on Humanity for some time to come. Far more people die or are harmed by insufficient heat/sunlight than by too much. More people freeze to death or starve because of cold-weather related crop failures or conditions created by cold air/water current shifting (el Nino, etc) than by warmth-related changes by a factor of many times. These same studies have determined that even accepting the average estimates of projected temperature increases made by AGW believers, atmospheric warming would not begin to adversely effect the planet or Humanity significantly for as long as two hundred years.
« Last Edit: December 14, 2016, 09:11:33 pm by LateForLunch »
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