SUNY professor says Trump win at least 87 percent certain; other polls 'bunk'

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SUNY professor says Trump win at least 87 percent certain; other polls 'bunk'
Jim Hoft | October 20, 2016
By  Kevin Tampone | ktampone@syracuse.com   
on October 19, 2016 at 3:22 PM, updated October 19, 2016 at 3:44 PM
http://www.syracuse.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/10/helmut_norpoth_donald_trump_victory.html

Stony Brook, N.Y. — A SUNY professor continues to project Donald Trump as the likely winner of this year's election and he's critiquing polls that predict the opposite in a new opinion piece.

Helmut Norpoth has been predicting a Trump victory since early this year. His model currently projects a win for the Republican with a certainty of 87 to 99 percent.

Norpoth is a professor at Stony Brook University on Long Island.

...

Norpoth wrote in The Hill that although the race looks decided, current polling methods are "bunk."

The projections for Clinton are all based on opinion polls, which are flawed because they don't reflect actions, Norpoth wrote. They're about what voters think of Clinton or Trump, but they can't tell us exactly how voters will act on those thoughts.

"It is ingrained in all of us that voting is civic duty," he says. "So nearly all of us say, oh yes, I'll vote, and then many will not follow through."

Instead of opinion polling, Norpoth relies on statistics from candidates' performances in party primaries and patterns in the electoral cycle to forecast results. The model correctly predicted the victor in every presidential election since 1996, according to the Daily Mail.

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Excerpt.  Read more at http://www.syracuse.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/10/helmut_norpoth_donald_trump_victory.html

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It's bad of me, but what went through my mind...



                                               Dark Helmet                                                                      Dork Helmut

 

[geronl]

Idiotic

[HonestJohn]

Already posted:

http://www.gopbriefingroom.com/index.php/topic,230545.0.html

(And it's on the same page! How hard is it to do a *CNTL-F* and a word search for SUNY before posting!!!)

[Suppressed]

Already posted:

http://www.gopbriefingroom.com/index.php/topic,230545.0.html

(And it's on the same page! How hard is it to do a *CNTL-F* and a word search for SUNY before posting!!!)

Thanks and apologies!

I originally was posting another version of the story that referenced this one, and forgot to search for this one.  Good lesson!

[HonestJohn]

Thanks and apologies!

I originally was posting another version of the story that referenced this one, and forgot to search for this one.  Good lesson!

Not probs.  That the other article was on the same "first page" in the politics section really got my goat.

@TomSea tends to do that a lot.

[HAPPY2BME]

The model correctly predicted the victor in every presidential election since 1996, according to the Daily Mail.

Running the model on earlier campaigns comes up with the correct outcome for every race since 1912, except the 1960 election.

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... every race since 1912

[musiclady]

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... every race since 1912

When your leftist, Progressive hero Woodrow Wilson won??  THAT race??

@HAPPY2BME

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

I remember these kind of articles coming out in 2012 too in favor of Romney. They were all wrong.