Author Topic: Ethanol credit spike divides gas stations  (Read 2091 times)

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Offline thackney

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Ethanol credit spike divides gas stations
« on: August 25, 2016, 04:33:28 pm »
Ethanol credit spike divides gas stations
http://fuelfix.com/blog/2016/08/24/ethanol-credit-spike-divides-gas-stations/
August 24, 2016

Apparently, it’s not just the nation’s refineries that are getting hit by a recent spike in the price of government credits for biofuels.

Now gas station owners say they, too, are losing out after the price of RINs –  the credits which refineries must have to prove there is ethanol and other biofuels in the fuel supply  — shot up close to 40 percent since the beginning of the year.

A paper commissioned by the Small Retailer Coalition, and written by Bud Weinstein, an economist at Southern Methodist University’s Maguire Energy Institute, says smaller, independent gas stations are being undercut by larger chains like Circle K and Sheetz that blend their own ethanol and can sell the resulting credits at a profit.

The smaller retailers likely operate under the brand Exxon Mobil or Shell, but are financially independent of those corporate giants. They are left to watch as their competition across the street take those RIN profits and uses them to slash prices on gasoline.

“The large volume retailers going in up the street has been going on a long time, but the RINs market has been accelerating the demise of the small mom and pop retailer,” Weinstein said in an interview. “The trouble with the whole [biofuels program] is it’s created some unintended consequences.”

In his paper, Weinstein cites an earnings report last year from Marathon Petroleum, which owns the Speedway gas station chain, stating it made $74 million selling excess RINs in 2014.

The situation within the retail gasoline industry mirrors that within the refining sector, where independent refiners like CVR Energy in Sugar Land and Valero in San Antonio, are spending more and more on RINs at a time refining margins are shrinking.

The losses have accelerated a debate within the energy sector about who should be responsible for meeting the government’s biofuel madate, the refineries that produce the gasoline and diesel or the wholesalers that blend biofuels into the fuel stream before trucking it to gasoline stations.

At the same time Wall Street traders push RIN prices up and down, infuriating executives like CVR’s Jack Lipinski, who said in an interview earlier this month, “if the EPA would allow everyone to see how much [RINs] everyone owned, it would be like cockroaches when the lights turn on.”

For now, small gasoline stations seem to have but little choice to wait out the current spike in RIN prices and hope they can hold on.

In his paper, Weinstein estimates building the infrastructure to blend ethanol would require millions of dollars, something he says most small gas stations can not afford.

But the ultimate loser will be U.S. motorists, he says. Between 1994 and 2015 the number of filling stations fell from more than 200,000 to about 150,000.

“If profit margins for small, independent retailers continue to narrow in order to ‘meet the competition,’ even more of these businesses can be expected to fail in coming years,” the paper says. “Fewer small retailers, in turn, will mean higher fuel prices for consumers.”

More analysis at the link
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Offline IsailedawayfromFR

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Re: Ethanol credit spike divides gas stations
« Reply #1 on: August 26, 2016, 03:51:18 am »
A real distortion of the market going on which seems to be a negative overall for the consumer.

Was unable to figure out about how much one RIN for one gallon approximately is worth.  Could you? @thackney
No punishment, in my opinion, is too great, for the man who can build his greatness upon his country's ruin~  George Washington

Offline Smokin Joe

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Re: Ethanol credit spike divides gas stations
« Reply #2 on: August 26, 2016, 06:21:45 am »
A real distortion of the market going on which seems to be a negative overall for the consumer.

Was unable to figure out about how much one RIN for one gallon approximately is worth.  Could you? @thackney
Cruz wanted to do away with the ethanol mandate and subsidies.
Trump wanted to increase them.
oh well...
How God must weep at humans' folly! Stand fast! God knows what he is doing!
Seventeen Techniques for Truth Suppression

Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

C S Lewis

Offline thackney

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Re: Ethanol credit spike divides gas stations
« Reply #3 on: August 26, 2016, 12:05:46 pm »
A real distortion of the market going on which seems to be a negative overall for the consumer.

Was unable to figure out about how much one RIN for one gallon approximately is worth.  Could you? @thackney

Some background:

http://www.afdc.energy.gov/laws/RIN.html

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) uses Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) to track renewable transportation fuels. The RIN system allows EPA to monitor compliance with the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), a federal program that requires transportation fuels sold in the United States to contain minimum volumes of renewable fuels....

...Due to the low availability of cellulosic ethanol, EPA sets waiver credit prices for cellulosic ethanol in order to allow obligated parties to meet their required volumes. Cellulosic waiver credit prices were $0.49 and $0.64 per gallon in 2014 and 2015, respectively.

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What caused the run-up in ethanol RIN prices during early 2013?
http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=11671

Before 2013, Renewable Identification Number (RIN) prices for corn ethanol, which can be used to meet only the overall target for biofuels under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program, had consistently ranged between $0.01 per gallon to $0.05 per gallon, and were substantially lower than biodiesel RIN prices, which can meet multiple targets. At the start of 2013, corn ethanol RIN prices began to increase sharply, reaching highs around $1.00 per gallon in early March and for the first time approached levels similar to biodiesel RIN prices.



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RINs and RVOs are used to implement the Renewable Fuel Standard
http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=11511



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Higher RIN prices support continued ethanol blending despite lower gasoline prices
http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=20072



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http://blogs.platts.com/2016/05/16/us-refiners-renewable-fuel-standard-costs/

Ethanol RINs for 2016, which traded at 54.5 cents/gal on November 30, jumped to 85 cents/gal on December 1, Platts assessments showed. Last week, they were trading in the range of 74.75 cents/gal.

CVR’s first quarter ethanol RIN cost was $43.1 million as compared to $36.6 million in the first quarter of 2015.

So far second quarter ethanol RINs have averaged 73.38 cents/gal, compared with the 61.52 cents/ gal average last year when refiners were mandated to use only 16.93 billion gallons of renewable fuels.

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Current RIN pricing on page 3 (PDF chart)
http://www.progressivefuelslimited.com/Web_Data/pfldaily.pdf
« Last Edit: August 26, 2016, 12:06:53 pm by thackney »
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Offline thackney

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Re: Ethanol credit spike divides gas stations
« Reply #4 on: August 26, 2016, 12:09:37 pm »
Reuters estimates 10 oil majors spent $1.1 billion on RINs through mid-2016
http://www.biofuelsdigest.com/bdigest/2016/08/11/reuters-estimates-10-oil-majors-spent-1-1-billion-on-rins-through-mid-2016/
August 11, 2016

In New York state, Reuters analysis shows that a selection of major 10 oil refining companies spent $1.1 billion on RINs during the first half of this year, almost guaranteeing they’ll pass their record 2015 spend of $1.3 billion. The sector is suffering from tight margins, with the S&P 1500 index of oil companies showing losses of 18% so far this year compared to overall gains of 6.5% seen in the broader market. Reuters says RIN prices averaged 25% higher during the last quarter compared to last year.

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RINsanity on repeat has oil industry in a tizzy
http://www.biofuelsdigest.com/bdigest/2016/08/04/rinsanity-on-repeat-has-oil-industry-in-a-tizzy/
August 4, 2016

RINsanity on repeat has oil industry in a tizzy
August 4, 2016   | Meghan Sapp

In Illinois, the oil industry is livid about spiking RIN prices in an environment of thin margins due to a long-standing bear market for fossil fuels. RIN prices have increased 32% in the past two months, with refiners potentially looking at a $1.8 billion RIN bill this year, with RIN costs outweighing all other production costs for some companies such as CVR Refining who says RIN costs are now double its labor costs. The last bout of “RINsanity” was in 2013. The Renewable Fuel Association has already called for an investigation into potential market manipulation.
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Offline Smokin Joe

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Re: Ethanol credit spike divides gas stations
« Reply #5 on: August 26, 2016, 12:22:08 pm »
Reuters estimates 10 oil majors spent $1.1 billion on RINs through mid-2016
http://www.biofuelsdigest.com/bdigest/2016/08/11/reuters-estimates-10-oil-majors-spent-1-1-billion-on-rins-through-mid-2016/
August 11, 2016

In New York state, Reuters analysis shows that a selection of major 10 oil refining companies spent $1.1 billion on RINs during the first half of this year, almost guaranteeing they’ll pass their record 2015 spend of $1.3 billion. The sector is suffering from tight margins, with the S&P 1500 index of oil companies showing losses of 18% so far this year compared to overall gains of 6.5% seen in the broader market. Reuters says RIN prices averaged 25% higher during the last quarter compared to last year.

- - - - - - - - - -

RINsanity on repeat has oil industry in a tizzy
http://www.biofuelsdigest.com/bdigest/2016/08/04/rinsanity-on-repeat-has-oil-industry-in-a-tizzy/
August 4, 2016

RINsanity on repeat has oil industry in a tizzy
August 4, 2016   | Meghan Sapp

In Illinois, the oil industry is livid about spiking RIN prices in an environment of thin margins due to a long-standing bear market for fossil fuels. RIN prices have increased 32% in the past two months, with refiners potentially looking at a $1.8 billion RIN bill this year, with RIN costs outweighing all other production costs for some companies such as CVR Refining who says RIN costs are now double its labor costs. The last bout of “RINsanity” was in 2013. The Renewable Fuel Association has already called for an investigation into potential market manipulation.
In the meantime, the oil companies are blamed for being greedy and charging so much for gasoline. Typical. this is a racket like carbon credits. Is Maurice Strong, Soros,  or Algore (who stood to make trillions if carbon credits were required) behind this? No wonder industry ran for the border.
How God must weep at humans' folly! Stand fast! God knows what he is doing!
Seventeen Techniques for Truth Suppression

Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

C S Lewis

Offline IsailedawayfromFR

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Re: Ethanol credit spike divides gas stations
« Reply #6 on: August 26, 2016, 01:27:36 pm »
@thackney - thanks.  Congress and Bush created this whole market out of nothing but the law.

The only ones that profit are the bureaucrats who get jobs to create and maintain this and those who are astute enough to manipulate for their own profit.

Consumers take it on the chin.
No punishment, in my opinion, is too great, for the man who can build his greatness upon his country's ruin~  George Washington

Offline Smokin Joe

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Re: Ethanol credit spike divides gas stations
« Reply #7 on: August 26, 2016, 11:14:02 pm »
@thackney - thanks.  Congress and Bush created this whole market out of nothing but the law.

The only ones that profit are the bureaucrats who get jobs to create and maintain this and those who are astute enough to manipulate for their own profit.

Consumers take it on the chin.
There were two approved oxygenating additives, MTBE and Ethanol. MTBE turned out to be nasty stuff that persists in groundwater ( a few drops of fuel a fill up adds up). When the liability waiver for MTBE producers was not renewed by Congress, rather than face lawsuits, the switch was made to ethanol.

Bureaucrats and politicians, lobbyists, and producers, all profit. The rest of us pay for it at the pump and in increased taxes where there is a sales tax on fuels (not just a per gallon tax).

(BOHICA, government is going to 'fix' something. ) The blame will be shifted to the "greedy" oil companies by the media and the politicians.
How God must weep at humans' folly! Stand fast! God knows what he is doing!
Seventeen Techniques for Truth Suppression

Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

C S Lewis

Offline Cripplecreek

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Re: Ethanol credit spike divides gas stations
« Reply #8 on: August 27, 2016, 12:36:27 am »
Cruz wanted to do away with the ethanol mandate and subsidies.
Trump wanted to increase them.
oh well...

That's right.

Offline Smokin Joe

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Re: Ethanol credit spike divides gas stations
« Reply #9 on: August 27, 2016, 12:42:54 am »
That's right.
Not only was Trump pandering to corn farmers and the Iowa political machine (the Governor's son is/was an ethanol industry lobbyist), but he pledged to use the EPA to enforce the mandate to the fullest extent of the law.
BZZZZZZZT!
Trump went immediately to the bottom of the list.

Cruz discussed the issue with a farmer who was against the elimination of the mandate, and when they were done, Cruz had a new supporter.

coulda, shoulda, woulda...
How God must weep at humans' folly! Stand fast! God knows what he is doing!
Seventeen Techniques for Truth Suppression

Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

C S Lewis

Offline MajorClay

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Re: Ethanol credit spike divides gas stations
« Reply #10 on: August 27, 2016, 10:55:47 am »
Great thread.

Offline Cripplecreek

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Re: Ethanol credit spike divides gas stations
« Reply #11 on: August 27, 2016, 11:05:01 am »
Not only was Trump pandering to corn farmers and the Iowa political machine (the Governor's son is/was an ethanol industry lobbyist), but he pledged to use the EPA to enforce the mandate to the fullest extent of the law.
BZZZZZZZT!
Trump went immediately to the bottom of the list.

Cruz discussed the issue with a farmer who was against the elimination of the mandate, and when they were done, Cruz had a new supporter.

coulda, shoulda, woulda...

Its amazing how quickly all of the things we conservatives were fighting against became OK as soon as St Tangelo Betrayed us on them. He also expressed support for wind and sugar subsidies.