Author Topic: Investments  (Read 3918 times)

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Online bolobaby

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Re: Investments
« Reply #75 on: November 21, 2016, 11:14:58 AM »
I bought three CRSPR based gene-editing stocks. I'm getting more and more convinced that this technology is a 10x technology, maybe more. I went with a basket of stocks rather than a single one because one is likely to emerge when the others get bought and/or fail.

The three I invested in are:

NTLA
EDIT
CRSP

I put a good chunk in each and will likely reinvest more in one of them when I see some traction.

Expect volatility. This is new tech and - although promising - is yet unproven. This could see some wild swings (like 50% losses) before going on a 10x run.
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Offline austingirl

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Re: Investments
« Reply #76 on: November 21, 2016, 11:47:25 AM »
Are semis recovering? Could bode well for an economic recovery. MU and AMD rocking.
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Online bolobaby

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Re: Investments
« Reply #77 on: November 21, 2016, 04:58:38 PM »
@austingirl

Yeah, both NVDA and AMD are on my watch list and up 30%+ from 50 day MA. Unfortunately, I sort of crawled back into the market a bit too slow and missed those moves.

SWKS may be my place to buy back in. I sold if off when I got out pre-election and it is only up ~2.5% from the 50 day MA, so it may have some space to move. Unfortunately, it also relies somewhat heavily on AAPL and I've seen some negative press on that lately. So, I'm waiting since they will likely put price pressure on their supply chain.

My current holdings look like this:

NTLA
EDIT
CRSP
(CRSPR gene editing plays)

SSYS
(3d printing play. I jumped back on this one just before earnings and that turned out to be a mistake. Took a hit, but I'm still confident in the technology. In fact, I used my 3d printer to make animatronic eyeballs for a 20 foot tall marionette for the city's Thanksgiving Day parade.)

HIIQ
(Insurance play - sort of. They offer unique insurance options and I think they will do well regardless of how Obamacare turns out. In fact, they are 74.4% above their 50 day MA and I'm still holding on for more. Muwhahaha.)

GNW
(Financial play from earlier this year that I am back in. It dropped recently nearly 20%, although it has recovered a bit. It's 4.15% off the 50 day MA, but 13.34% up from the 200 day MA, so the long term trend is up. I expect this to go back over $5/share.)

ZNGA
(I bought this damn thing again. This stock makes no sense to me. Something HAS to happen with it at some point. Frankly, I'm half-expecting it to be bought now, but it's balance sheet is too strong for an easy acquisition. Still, it's not making money like it should, so maybe it can piggyback on some VR stuff to finally get a breakout hit.)

CCJ
(Uranium mining. Reactors in Japan will be coming back online soon, or already have. Additionally, if we get a real space push, reactor based energy will be a key component. I'm hold this one for a while.)

GILD
(Never sold this one. It's doing diddly-squat, but everyone knows the story here. I'm actually down 5% on my initial investment. Still, it's cheap, it's margins are strong, and you know that - in a Trump world - any M&A will flow through on greased wheels. I hope.)

GM
(Never sold, still holding. This has proven a good buy thus far at +7.4% from my buy point. More to come as the auto sector reinvigorates.)

GD
(Never sold, still holding. This was a good defense pick and still sound. +17% from my buy point. Looking for more. Hoping to see some faster, smarter modernization in the new Trump armed forces. We'll see.)

Physical Silver
(Will probably never release this position unless there is a sudden spike over $100, heh. It's just a hedge against certain conditions.)
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Offline austingirl

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Re: Investments
« Reply #78 on: November 22, 2016, 09:52:55 AM »
@austingirl

Yeah, both NVDA and AMD are on my watch list and up 30%+ from 50 day MA. Unfortunately, I sort of crawled back into the market a bit too slow and missed those moves.

SWKS may be my place to buy back in. I sold if off when I got out pre-election and it is only up ~2.5% from the 50 day MA, so it may have some space to move. Unfortunately, it also relies somewhat heavily on AAPL and I've seen some negative press on that lately. So, I'm waiting since they will likely put price pressure on their supply chain.

My current holdings look like this:

NTLA
EDIT
CRSP
(CRSPR gene editing plays)

SSYS
(3d printing play. I jumped back on this one just before earnings and that turned out to be a mistake. Took a hit, but I'm still confident in the technology. In fact, I used my 3d printer to make animatronic eyeballs for a 20 foot tall marionette for the city's Thanksgiving Day parade.)

HIIQ
(Insurance play - sort of. They offer unique insurance options and I think they will do well regardless of how Obamacare turns out. In fact, they are 74.4% above their 50 day MA and I'm still holding on for more. Muwhahaha.)

GNW
(Financial play from earlier this year that I am back in. It dropped recently nearly 20%, although it has recovered a bit. It's 4.15% off the 50 day MA, but 13.34% up from the 200 day MA, so the long term trend is up. I expect this to go back over $5/share.)

ZNGA
(I bought this damn thing again. This stock makes no sense to me. Something HAS to happen with it at some point. Frankly, I'm half-expecting it to be bought now, but it's balance sheet is too strong for an easy acquisition. Still, it's not making money like it should, so maybe it can piggyback on some VR stuff to finally get a breakout hit.)

CCJ
(Uranium mining. Reactors in Japan will be coming back online soon, or already have. Additionally, if we get a real space push, reactor based energy will be a key component. I'm hold this one for a while.)

GILD
(Never sold this one. It's doing diddly-squat, but everyone knows the story here. I'm actually down 5% on my initial investment. Still, it's cheap, it's margins are strong, and you know that - in a Trump world - any M&A will flow through on greased wheels. I hope.)

GM
(Never sold, still holding. This has proven a good buy thus far at +7.4% from my buy point. More to come as the auto sector reinvigorates.)

GD
(Never sold, still holding. This was a good defense pick and still sound. +17% from my buy point. Looking for more. Hoping to see some faster, smarter modernization in the new Trump armed forces. We'll see.)

Physical Silver
(Will probably never release this position unless there is a sudden spike over $100, heh. It's just a hedge against certain conditions.)


Thanks for the post. I am watching AMD as well; it went up very fast.

GILD is a huge money maker yet share price has been trashed. Have heard grumblings about a big Pharma buying them. That is doubtful, IMO.

Good luck.
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Online bolobaby

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Re: Investments
« Reply #79 on: November 28, 2016, 11:53:05 AM »
It's picks like HIIQ that I just LOVE. OCN was another pick in this category for me this year.

I spotted OCN at $1.53. Current price is $5.15.

HIIQ was $5.51 when I bought it in August. The current price today is $12.60.

I missed some of the gain on both of these stocks due to selling and buying back in during the period. Also, I am now completely sold out of OCN.

Nonetheless, it's gainers like these that can set my whole portfolio. Other stocks can drop 25%, but when I have 100-300% gains on a couple of clear winners, it offsets everything. The good news is that my total portfolio has had few dogs in it, so these big gainers really do double duty on overall gain.

All that being said, I really popped in today to mention GNW. I was of the mindset that it could be one of these 2x stocks. My confidence is wavering a bit. I originally bought at $3.54. Current price is $4.32, after a recent peak at $5.21. That is a healthy 22% gain, or 47% at peak. Will this stock go 2x? Now I'm not so sure. It's giving a lot back lately.

So, I'm on the prowl again for another 2x stock. I think HIIQ has some more legs yet. Plus, over time, one of those CRSPR gene editing stocks will pay out, but it won't be soon.

That leaves me with ZNGA. I'm starting to suspect this one may finally get its due. If they can piggyback on VR or Enhanced Reality, they could score a nice move in 2017. I've been in and out of this stock for a while with this expectation, but I'm starting to really suspect it's now or never.

If anyone has any contrarian views or other suspected 2x picks, feel free to follow up.
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Online bolobaby

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Re: Investments
« Reply #80 on: November 30, 2016, 11:53:38 AM »
Putting Lannett on my watch list (LCI). May even buy before the week is out.
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Online bolobaby

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Re: Investments
« Reply #81 on: December 06, 2016, 10:36:06 AM »
Putting Syngenta AG (SYT) on a very short term watch list. I will make a decision to buy or not before the week ends.

This is an arbitrage play. Current price is $79.35. There is an offer on the table to buy them for $96, which could close in March. If the deal makes it past anti-trust regulators, I could score a quick 20% profit in the span of just a few months. ChemChina has just set aside $5B in a holding account for the deal, so they are pushing forward hard.

Could be easy money.
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Offline MajorClay

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Re: Investments
« Reply #82 on: December 06, 2016, 09:48:34 PM »
Thinking of putting some 401k money back in to equities.  The mm fund I am currently in will not grow enough by my old age to keep me in the lifestyle to which I want to become accustomed.

Offline MajorClay

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Re: Investments
« Reply #83 on: December 06, 2016, 09:57:03 PM »
Anybody think this "Trump Rally"  will continue?  Tax cuts could juice the economy.  Not to mention the effect of all the people working 2 25 hr a week jobs moving to 1 40hr per week job. because of the death of Obamacare.

Online bolobaby

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Re: Investments
« Reply #84 on: December 06, 2016, 10:23:06 PM »
@MajorClay

Whether or not his rally continues depends on whether or not he uses his majorities in Congress to get something done!

Things he could do to really help the market:

1. Radically reduce or completely eliminate corporate taxes.
2. Actually repeal Obamacare - DON'T amend it to "make it better." Allow for policies to be offered across state lines, and affinity groups to create insurance pools.
3. Tort reform.
4. Significant regulatory relief for almost all industries.
5. Reduce federal assistance programs to encourage labor force participation to rise.
6. Reduce personal income taxes.
7. Allow for repatriation of corporate foreign funds without penalty.

He should be able to pull several of those things off if he stops focusing on BS small scale crony-capitalism deals like the Carrier crap.
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Online bolobaby

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Re: Investments
« Reply #85 on: December 06, 2016, 10:29:10 PM »
I've had ANW on my watch list for a while and watched it go up 22.57% over the 50 day MA and 41.74% over the 200 day MA. One might think that I've missed the boat on this one, but it may be one of the stocks I buy this week. Still has a forward P/E of 7.61, a PEG ratio of 0.87, and price/book of 0.82. These are all good signs.
« Last Edit: December 06, 2016, 10:29:27 PM by bolobaby »
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Online mrpotatohead

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Re: Investments
« Reply #86 on: December 06, 2016, 10:51:42 PM »
Anybody think this "Trump Rally"  will continue?  Tax cuts could juice the economy.  Not to mention the effect of all the people working 2 25 hr a week jobs moving to 1 40hr per week job. because of the death of Obamacare.
We used to call this the Christmas rally....as it happened most every year.  As a matter of fact we had a stock picking contest that usually ran up until the first of the year.  This rally is actually pretty common.

Offline Oceander

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Re: Investments
« Reply #87 on: December 07, 2016, 09:20:26 AM »
@MajorClay

Whether or not his rally continues depends on whether or not he uses his majorities in Congress to get something done!

Things he could do to really help the market:

1. Radically reduce or completely eliminate corporate taxes.
2. Actually repeal Obamacare - DON'T amend it to "make it better." Allow for policies to be offered across state lines, and affinity groups to create insurance pools.
3. Tort reform.
4. Significant regulatory relief for almost all industries.
5. Reduce federal assistance programs to encourage labor force participation to rise.
6. Reduce personal income taxes.
7. Allow for repatriation of corporate foreign funds without penalty.

He should be able to pull several of those things off if he stops focusing on BS small scale crony-capitalism deals like the Carrier crap.

Yeah, Dear Leader runs everything personally and controls Congress.  Good luck with that one. 

Offline MajorClay

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Re: Investments
« Reply #88 on: December 07, 2016, 09:27:03 AM »
I am thinking 90 Days or more.

Online Frank Cannon

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Re: Investments
« Reply #89 on: December 07, 2016, 09:31:48 AM »
Yeah, Dear Leader runs everything personally and controls Congress.  Good luck with that one.


LOL. Well you do have a guy asking financial advice from a bunch of cracked pots like me so right there is the posters first problem.

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2MXqb1a3Apg" target="_blank" class="aeva_link bbc_link new_win">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2MXqb1a3Apg</a>
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Online bolobaby

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Re: Investments
« Reply #90 on: December 07, 2016, 10:17:25 AM »
Yeah, Dear Leader runs everything personally and controls Congress.  Good luck with that one.

@Oceander

Please. Control yourself. I've been #NeverTrump from the get-go. No one is expecting Trump to push any of the elements I listed without partnering with Congress, as indicated in the first sentence of my response:

"Whether or not his rally continues depends on whether or not he uses his majorities in Congress to get something done!"

Only someone who is blind would deny that there is an opportunity for the administration and Congress to work together to enact meaningful change given the GOP control of these branches. I still think Trump is a moron, but presidents have historically worked with Congress to push their policy preferences. All the policy preferences I listed would make sense to pursue.

@mrpotatohead

You are absolutely right about the Christmas rally. In fact, as indicated on this thread, I moved some money out of the market towards the end of Q3 and didn't move in back in until after the election. That move was based entirely on the historical pattern of poor September gains vs outstanding Q4 gains.

Unfortunately, while the broader market might have followed this pattern, many of my picks continued to rise an insane amount while my money was sidelined. I did miss out on some significant gains, but I don't regret moving the money. It was prudent. I still made money before, during (with the stocks I continued to own), and after. My potential gain, though, was depressed by about $20k between Sept-Oct. That kind of sucks.

@Frank Cannon

I started this thread for people interested in investments to talk about investment choices. I'm happy to put it all out there, which includes announcing when I buy something and when I sell. Although I don't post the amounts I'm buying and selling, which affects total portfolio returns since I have, say, more money in HIIQ right now than CRSP, the record is on this thread.

I think my record speaks for itself. I have picked stocks that, as a portfolio, have beaten the return of the DOW significantly.

Call me a crackpot if you will, but I'm still happy to discuss investment options with anyone who is interested.

@MajorClay

So, in closing, feel free to use this thread to generate your own investment ideas. As I posted at the very beginning, I'm not intending people to take this as investment advice. The standard disclaimer applies - do your own due diligence and invest at your own risk!
#NeverTrump... and "no" that doesn't mean I'll be voting for Hillary like Trump has in the past.

Offline Oceander

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Re: Investments
« Reply #91 on: December 07, 2016, 10:29:27 AM »
@Oceander

Please. Control yourself. I've been #NeverTrump from the get-go. No one is expecting Trump to push any of the elements I listed without partnering with Congress, as indicated in the first sentence of my response:

"Whether or not his rally continues depends on whether or not he uses his majorities in Congress to get something done!"

Only someone who is blind would deny that there is an opportunity for the administration and Congress to work together to enact meaningful change given the GOP control of these branches. I still think Trump is a moron, but presidents have historically worked with Congress to push their policy preferences. All the policy preferences I listed would make sense to pursue.

@mrpotatohead

You are absolutely right about the Christmas rally. In fact, as indicated on this thread, I moved some money out of the market towards the end of Q3 and didn't move in back in until after the election. That move was based entirely on the historical pattern of poor September gains vs outstanding Q4 gains.

Unfortunately, while the broader market might have followed this pattern, many of my picks continued to rise an insane amount while my money was sidelined. I did miss out on some significant gains, but I don't regret moving the money. It was prudent. I still made money before, during (with the stocks I continued to own), and after. My potential gain, though, was depressed by about $20k between Sept-Oct. That kind of sucks.

@Frank Cannon

I started this thread for people interested in investments to talk about investment choices. I'm happy to put it all out there, which includes announcing when I buy something and when I sell. Although I don't post the amounts I'm buying and selling, which affects total portfolio returns since I have, say, more money in HIIQ right now than CRSP, the record is on this thread.

I think my record speaks for itself. I have picked stocks that, as a portfolio, have beaten the return of the DOW significantly.

Call me a crackpot if you will, but I'm still happy to discuss investment options with anyone who is interested.

@MajorClay

So, in closing, feel free to use this thread to generate your own investment ideas. As I posted at the very beginning, I'm not intending people to take this as investment advice. The standard disclaimer applies - do your own due diligence and invest at your own risk!

He doesn't own Congress.  Those aren't his majorities.  They're GOP majorities. 

Offline mirraflake

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Re: Investments
« Reply #92 on: December 07, 2016, 10:39:57 AM »
Anybody think this "Trump Rally"  will continue?  Tax cuts could juice the economy.  Not to mention the effect of all the people working 2 25 hr a week jobs moving to 1 40hr per week job. because of the death of Obamacare.

I expect a healthy correction maybe 1500-2000 pt drop but it will go back up..If Trump lowers the corp tax rate to 15% and gives a tax amnesty to the $3 trillion in offshore accounts watch out....

My clients who sell "toys"  ATV's, motorcycles etc have said sales in the last month have been the best they have seen in years. People know the economy is going to take off.

Another friend works in a Fortune 500 factory..they just brought back  the night shift.

I know this stuff is anycdontal  but I predict great things for this economy..you can just feel it.

@MajorClay
« Last Edit: December 07, 2016, 10:40:15 AM by mirraflake »

Online Weird Tolkienish Figure

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Re: Investments
« Reply #93 on: December 07, 2016, 10:49:02 AM »
I expect a healthy correction maybe 1500-2000 pt drop but it will go back up..If Trump lowers the corp tax rate to 15% and gives a tax amnesty to the $3 trillion in offshore accounts watch out....

My clients who sell "toys"  ATV's, motorcycles etc have said sales in the last month have been the best they have seen in years. People know the economy is going to take off.

Another friend works in a Fortune 500 factory..they just brought back  the night shift.

I know this stuff is anycdontal  but I predict great things for this economy..you can just feel it.

@MajorClay


Could happen, if Trump keeps his big fat mouth shut.

Online bolobaby

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Re: Investments
« Reply #94 on: December 07, 2016, 10:57:47 AM »
He doesn't own Congress.  Those aren't his majorities.  They're GOP majorities. 

@Oceander

Your hatred of Trump has really affected your ability to be objective. Remember, you are talking to someone who is #NeverTrump himself.

You know and I know that if Cruz was the nominee, candidate, and president elect, we would be expecting him to work with the majorities HIS PARTY had in Congress to get something done. So, seriously, just stop. You are now embarrassing yourself.

And, please, for the love of God, can we not turn this investment thread into another one of your "I hate Trump" threads? I'm not fond of the guy either, but you are getting ridiculous.
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Online bolobaby

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Re: Investments
« Reply #95 on: December 07, 2016, 11:00:15 AM »
@mirraflake

"If Trump lowers the corp tax rate to 15% and gives a tax amnesty to the $3 trillion in offshore accounts watch out...."

Yeah - repatriation of funds was on my list, too. That alone could be HUGE. Why not do it? The money is never coming back unless he does allow for penalty free repatriation.
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Online bolobaby

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Re: Investments
« Reply #96 on: December 09, 2016, 11:20:00 AM »
Sells -

Sold GM today to take profits. Made 20.11% - felt that was good enough. That's about a 65% yearly return rate on that money, so definitely good enough.

Sold GD today to take profits. Made 21.44% - I'm concerned that cost controls may come into play for large US defense contracts, which could depress performance. Good thing for the country, bad thing for my stake. Also, they announced a dividend with a pretty weak yield. It wasn't worth holding on to for that. Yearly return on this money is also about 65% based on the period the stock was held.

Buys -

Bought Syngenta AG. Almost a pure arbitrage play - not based on company performance, but the pending sale to ChemChina. If it goes through, I will make a tidy 20% within 3 months, which will be over 100% yearly rate of return on that money.

Bought Aegean Marine Petroleum Network. This one still has some legs, I think, although I'm uncertain about oil prices and the impact on the stock. Nonetheless, with a forward PE in the 7s, <1 PEG ratio, <1 Price/Book, and reasonable growth prospects, I think this stock still looks attractive. Looking for 20%, *not* 100% gains like on HIIQ or OCN. I also suspect that I could be out of this one by March.
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Online bolobaby

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Re: Investments
« Reply #97 on: December 14, 2016, 01:06:42 PM »
Ouch.

ANW made a convertible bond offering today up to $172.5MM. Did not see that coming. Stock down 13% as a result due to potential dilution.

The liquidity is good - it will help ANW continue to grow operations - but it's got shareholders spooked big time.

That hurt.

Using just the initial offering amount of $150MM, this amounts to a 29% potential dilution. With a PEG ratio of 0.86 and price to book of 0.74, the 13% drop seems about right. In fact, I'm hoping tomorrow I see an uptick tomorrow after the weak hands sell out, but nowhere near 13% back up.

This follows a 7.3% gain three days ago - after I bought. So it's not as bad as it could be for me. Nonetheless, I was not expecting this and it will force me to wait for management to use it's 7.77% ROE to cover this loss. (Bear in mind that 7.77% is not that great as a whole, but not bad in shipping.)
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Offline austingirl

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Re: Investments
« Reply #98 on: December 21, 2016, 07:09:52 PM »
Are semis recovering? Could bode well for an economic recovery. MU and AMD rocking.

Wow! Micron soaring on earnings! Happy days!
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Online bolobaby

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Re: Investments
« Reply #99 on: December 22, 2016, 09:48:34 AM »
Wow! Micron soaring on earnings! Happy days!

@austingirl

I was just coming online to congratulate you if you were still holding it. The stock is up about 80% from when you first mentioned it. Good pick!

I never bought, although it has stayed on my watch list. As far as semis are concerned, I only played in SWKS for a bit. I've kept NVDA, AMD, QCOM on my watch list (although I can't officially call QCOM a "semi" - close enough).

Nonetheless, you got the winner of the bunch by a wide margin. Excellent work.
« Last Edit: December 22, 2016, 09:48:53 AM by bolobaby »
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