I made a bunch of changes to my portfolio a bit over a week ago, which included dropping out of most stocks. I only kept 4 for now - CCJ, GD, GM, and GILD, along with my silver stake.
I had already dropped OCN at an 80% profit. The rest of the stocks had earned good returns, and I wanted to lock in some gains and sit out some of the September doldrums. (For example, my GNW gain was about 40%.) My timing was questionable.
Several stocks, including my version of MU - SWKS, have seen significant gains since I dropped out. SWKS is up another 12+% since my exit. Both GNW and HIIQ are up another 8+%. In fact, most of the stocks I sold are up more than 5% since I sold them - KPTI, 6.5%; IRBT, 7.35%; DDD, 6.39%. The others have smaller gains, and only QURE has gone down since I sold it.
Bear in mind, that I sold most of these at a good gain, so my "sour grapes" are that I could have earned more.
Meanwhile, the returns on my three biggest holdings have been pretty moderate:
GM - 4.08%
GD - 5.68%
GILD - 2.56%
I think I've held all these for less than two months, so it's not too bad. I'm still waiting on CCJ to break out.
Bottom line: I tried to time the market and probably failed. I didn't lose money as a result, but missed out on a chance to earn a lot more. I'm going to put my money back in soon and stick with the strategy of picking winners and not panicking when Fed speculation is giving the market fits. I will probably buy many of the stocks I sold off, because many of them are still technically winners. I'm just annoyed that I missed part of the ride.