Author Topic: Investments  (Read 7986 times)

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Online mrpotatohead

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Re: Investments
« Reply #25 on: July 29, 2016, 09:30:55 PM »
Buy low.  Sell high.

That is all.

 :beer:
I usually buy at a pretty good price.  It's the selling that usually gets me into trouble.  Like they say....never marry a stock...it doesn't even know who you are.
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Offline bolobaby

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Re: Investments
« Reply #26 on: August 03, 2016, 12:01:27 PM »
OK - last time I'll post portfolio activity here unless some folks chime in that they are interested. (Mighty quiet. Was hoping for some good dialogue on investments.  :0001:)

Nonetheless, I did put a half-sized stake down on Stratasys (SSYS) today. Why? Well, I was thinking about buying more DDD to cost average down my losses there, based on the belief that it will go up a bit from here. Instead, I looked over SSYS and think they have the more attractive growth prospects, cash reserve, and path to profitability.

So, I'm cost-averaging the sector, I hope. :-)

In at 20.97/share.

I have a feeling one of these two companies will get bought in the next 12-18 months.

Hrm, well, my initial instinct was probably the better one. DDD is up 19% today, or about 8% from the day I bought SSYS due to several down days for DDD between now and then. SSYS is up 6% today sympathetically, but actually DOWN from my buy price of 20.97. The question is whether or not SSYS will post an earnings surprise like DDD today, resulting in a similar jump tomorrow!

Both of these are intended to be a hold position for at least a quarter, but we'll see...
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Offline austingirl

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Re: Investments
« Reply #27 on: August 03, 2016, 09:03:39 PM »
Gilead -biotech that has a cure for HepC and has been decimated. On an earnings beat, slight revenue miss, and lowered guidance went down over 10%. I have done several swing trades that made money, but I am holding now with a loss. This is an interesting stock that has a history of deep declines. Wall Street wants an acquisition and it is now being punished. Rumors of a merger with Bristol-Meyers. Anyone else trade this?
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Offline bolobaby

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Re: Investments
« Reply #28 on: August 03, 2016, 10:40:13 PM »
Gilead -biotech that has a cure for HepC and has been decimated. On an earnings beat, slight revenue miss, and lowered guidance went down over 10%. I have done several swing trades that made money, but I am holding now with a loss. This is an interesting stock that has a history of deep declines. Wall Street wants an acquisition and it is now being punished. Rumors of a merger with Bristol-Meyers. Anyone else trade this?

Holy crap - good call. I'm adding this to my watch list and will buy as soon as one of my current holdings hits its stop-loss price.

This stock has some very nice properties that usually attract me to buy. For example...

* Reasonable P/E
* *Amazing* margins
* Good returns
* More cash than debt

...and it even has a dividend to boot. (Not top notch dividend, but good enough.)

It's been hit recently and growth looks to be slowing, if not outright contracting, but the have the working capital to buy a smaller unit to fuel growth.

Thanks for this one! I had two stocks on my watchlist - AVP and XONE - that were supposed to be my "next buys" but both put on significant gains in the past week, making me want to look for a stock that hadn't realized a nice gain yet. I think you are right - Gilead looks like a good pick.

I may hit a stop tomorrow with a couple of earnings (I'm worried about CTRL), so I could be in soon!
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Offline austingirl

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Re: Investments
« Reply #29 on: August 04, 2016, 12:24:16 PM »
Be cautious. This stock is hated by Wall Street. This morning CNBC says that the stock will not pop unless they do an acquisition. Gilead also has very good HIV drugs and a pipeline. So much speculation on their buyout targets- possibly a small oncology biotech with CAR-T drugs in development. There has been a recent setback in clinical trail for this treatment. Good luck.

I also bought Micron and have a loss but I am not selling. They aren't going anywhere. They recently adopted a poison pill so there is much talk about hostile takeover. This stock was a big winner until about 18 months ago. It should eventually recover or be taken over. The world need chips and they have a new technology coming soon.

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Offline bolobaby

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Re: Investments
« Reply #30 on: August 04, 2016, 12:45:15 PM »
Be cautious. This stock is hated by Wall Street. This morning CNBC says that the stock will not pop unless they do an acquisition. Gilead also has very good HIV drugs and a pipeline. So much speculation on their buyout targets- possibly a small oncology biotech with CAR-T drugs in development. There has been a recent setback in clinical trail for this treatment. Good luck.

I also bought Micron and have a loss but I am not selling. They aren't going anywhere. They recently adopted a poison pill so there is much talk about hostile takeover. This stock was a big winner until about 18 months ago. It should eventually recover or be taken over. The world need chips and they have a new technology coming soon.

Agreed that Gilead needs an acquisition, but they have the working capital to pull off a nice one.

Micron - hm. Margins and returns are rough on this one. Would've been great to buy back in May. It could still have legs given prior price action. Short interest is kind of high here.

I have QCOM on my watchlist in the semiconductor arena. I think I like the numbers there better than MU.
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Offline austingirl

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Re: Investments
« Reply #31 on: August 04, 2016, 01:00:12 PM »
Agreed that there are semis doing a lot better than MU. I am stubbornly holding on for the recovery or buyout- maybe in vain.
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Offline austingirl

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Online MajorClay

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Re: Investments
« Reply #33 on: August 04, 2016, 06:06:20 PM »
Don't ask me, I bought into silver on the way down.  Have an average buying price of about 30.  Oh well.   I don't have any dry powder to average it out either.  My son is starting college this fall.  Man is it expensive. I do not have enough savings set aside to pay for all four years.  He will have to get grants, loans and scholarships to pay the rest.

Offline austingirl

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Re: Investments
« Reply #34 on: August 05, 2016, 09:42:33 PM »
BMY got smacked today on news that a trial of one of their drugs was not successful for another usage- probably overreaction. I did a very quick little scalp for $300.00 profit. It still has a very high PE ratio. I will be watching on Monday.
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Offline bolobaby

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Re: Investments
« Reply #35 on: August 09, 2016, 10:59:34 PM »
BMY got smacked today on news that a trial of one of their drugs was not successful for another usage- probably overreaction. I did a very quick little scalp for $300.00 profit. It still has a very high PE ratio. I will be watching on Monday.

Great article on Gilead:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-beaten-down-biotech-stock-is-a-cure-for-your-portfolio-2016-08-09?siteid=yhoof2

I may dump one or two stocks tomorrow to invest in Gilead now.

In other action, I dropped CTRL. It shot up quite a bit recently and decided to take advantage of that. I actually still lost out in the long run on this stock, but getting out opened the door for me to invest in Skyworks (SWKS). Unfortunately, an article came out today that says Apple is trying to squeeze their margins. We'll see. All the fundamentals still look great for that stock.

OCN has been on a RAMPAGE, posting huge gains for me. It's making me look HARD at Genworth (GNW)!
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Online mrpotatohead

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Re: Investments
« Reply #36 on: August 09, 2016, 11:16:49 PM »
Here is one to watch.   I don't currently own it, but watching for possible entry.

SLCA owns 40% of the frac sand market.  Wells are requiring more and more sand to frac with, so this one has tremendous potential. 

Now for the possible downside....  If Hillary is elected she could possibly ban fracking, which would be detrimental to the oil industry.

This stock has doubled this year and looks a bit toppy currently. 

@Smokin Joe
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Offline austingirl

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Re: Investments
« Reply #37 on: August 09, 2016, 11:21:47 PM »
Gilead is owned 79% by institutions. Retail has been spooked. The price is in a very narrow range the last few days. Something is brewing. Wall Street wants an acquisition and rumors are flying but Gilead could buy a private company or a foreign company that is on no one's radar. Since the Street wants an acquisition will they reward Gilead if and when it happens? Interesting to watch. Good luck.
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Offline bolobaby

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Re: Investments
« Reply #38 on: August 09, 2016, 11:26:49 PM »
Here is one to watch.   I don't currently own it, but watching for possible entry.

SLCA owns 40% of the frac sand market.  Wells are requiring more and more sand to frac with, so this one has tremendous potential. 

Now for the possible downside....  If Hillary is elected she could possibly ban fracking, which would be detrimental to the oil industry.

This stock has doubled this year and looks a bit toppy currently. 

@Smokin Joe

Definitely looks toppy.

No growth. No profits. And it doesn't looks like management is doing anything about it. Probably explains the 23% short interest in this stock.
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Offline bolobaby

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Re: Investments
« Reply #39 on: August 11, 2016, 11:59:52 AM »
Sold ENS and took some profits.

Bought Genworth (GNW). This stock is trading at an unbelievable 0.12 price/book ratio. Margins and returns are abysmal, but there is signs of growth and just enough short interest to give it a further push upwards since there is 82% institutional interest in this stock.

Finally, they are bullishly above their 200 MA and trading on strength. Could be a 40%+ move on this stock coming.
« Last Edit: August 11, 2016, 12:00:23 PM by bolobaby »
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Online mrpotatohead

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Re: Investments
« Reply #40 on: August 12, 2016, 11:26:20 PM »
I supposed it would be helpful to get a list together of sectors that would benefit from having the Hildabeast in office.  Anything green seems to come to mind.   :3:
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Offline austingirl

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Re: Investments
« Reply #41 on: August 14, 2016, 11:33:15 AM »
Biotech is already suffering from the Hitlery effect. FUD affects Gilead in particular. Cure Hep C and suffer the consequences- what a world.

The only sector that could benefit from the reign of the she-devil is the financials. She is funded by the big banks and won't do anything to stop the gravy train, IMO. Her policies will destroy the rest of the economy and the energy and consumer sectors.

It is  hard to accept that this corrupt witch who should be in prison has a very good chance at POTUS.
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Offline bolobaby

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Re: Investments
« Reply #42 on: August 15, 2016, 11:23:14 AM »
Biotech is already suffering from the Hitlery effect. FUD affects Gilead in particular. Cure Hep C and suffer the consequences- what a world.

The only sector that could benefit from the reign of the she-devil is the financials. She is funded by the big banks and won't do anything to stop the gravy train, IMO. Her policies will destroy the rest of the economy and the energy and consumer sectors.

It is  hard to accept that this corrupt witch who should be in prison has a very good chance at POTUS.

Interestingly, there are several financials on my watchlist right now, not the least of which is Wells Fargo. I haven't decided whether or not to buy it yet, but I agree with your observation above that several of the banks could do well under a Hillary presidency.

I wouldn't discount consumer electronic segments for the year or so immediately following a Hillary win. Smartphones and VR are today's bread and circuses. Libtards will revel in getting the first female president AND an iPhone 7! It would be orgasmic for them.

Finally, I wouldn't throw oil under the bus. The entire sector has been down due to the oil glut. Hillary will ensure that it is harder to extract oil which will cause the cost per barrel to increase, improving the margins of the biggest and best - like Exxon. Many of the smaller oil services companies will whither and die, though, so focus on consolidating strength in the sector as the price per barrel rises to $80. (Speculation.)

Incidentally, I increased my position in ZNGA today, as well as bought HIIQ.

HIIQ is on a bull streak and still looks undervalued to me. I wanted to time the buy, but realized that I could get left in the dust, so jumped in today even when it was up. I had the same problem with OCN, where I initially missed the move from ~1.50 to ~1.80, but decided to get on the train before it was too late. Glad I did, as that stock is now up nearly 75% for me. I'm hoping GNW and HIIQ have similar moves for me.

Careful here with HIIQ, though. It's only a $40MM market cap with $9MM in cash, so definitely a micro-play. But if it eventually becomes a $400MM company...
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Offline bolobaby

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Re: Investments
« Reply #43 on: August 15, 2016, 11:39:04 AM »
Agreed that there are semis doing a lot better than MU. I am stubbornly holding on for the recovery or buyout- maybe in vain.

By the way - good call on MU. It's put on about 10% in the past two weeks. I haven't bought QCOM yet, but it's been flat. I bought SWKS - we'll see if that goes anywhere.
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Offline austingirl

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Re: Investments
« Reply #44 on: August 15, 2016, 12:38:03 PM »
I still have a way to go on MU to get my money back- but I have hope that I will eventually do so and maybe even have a profit.

Good point about oil- with Hitlery punishing energy - prices will rise.

I am still watching BMY for a rebound- it is stuck but good in a narrow range 60.40-60.90. Still has a hefty PE.

GILD is still in the doldrums as well, but well worth watching.

Good luck to all at the casino. Worrisome that those close to retirement (like me) have to risk their capital since interest rates are so low thanks to the Fed and the cozy crony capitalism.
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Offline austingirl

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Re: Investments
« Reply #45 on: September 21, 2016, 10:47:11 AM »
@bolobaby

Update:

MU up another $3.00 since my last post- PT raised to $23 by Nomura. Semis seem to be recovering- so cyclical.

BMY still in the doldrums.

GILD may have turned the corner- has gone back to the 80s- supposedly on the AGN acquisition for fatty liver disease- AGN overpaid for a company- but GILD owns liver disease and there is even speculation that AGN might acquire GILD. GILD has lost a lot of market cap.
« Last Edit: September 21, 2016, 10:49:09 AM by austingirl »
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Offline bolobaby

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Re: Investments
« Reply #46 on: September 21, 2016, 11:18:03 AM »
@austingirl

I made a bunch of changes to my portfolio a bit over a week ago, which included dropping out of most stocks. I only kept 4 for now - CCJ, GD, GM, and GILD, along with my silver stake.

I had already dropped OCN at an 80% profit. The rest of the stocks had earned good returns, and I wanted to lock in some gains and sit out some of the September doldrums. (For example, my GNW gain was about 40%.) My timing was questionable.

Several stocks, including my version of MU - SWKS, have seen significant gains since I dropped out. SWKS is up another 12+% since my exit. Both GNW and HIIQ are up another 8+%. In fact, most of the stocks I sold are up more than 5% since I sold them - KPTI, 6.5%; IRBT, 7.35%; DDD, 6.39%. The others have smaller gains, and only QURE has gone down since I sold it.

Bear in mind, that I sold most of these at a good gain, so my "sour grapes" are that I could have earned more.

Meanwhile, the returns on my three biggest holdings have been pretty moderate:

GM - 4.08%
GD - 5.68%
GILD - 2.56%

I think I've held all these for less than two months, so it's not too bad. I'm still waiting on CCJ to break out.

Bottom line: I tried to time the market and probably failed. I didn't lose money as a result, but missed out on a chance to earn a lot more. I'm going to put my money back in soon and stick with the strategy of picking winners and not panicking when Fed speculation is giving the market fits. I will probably buy many of the stocks I sold off, because many of them are still technically winners. I'm just annoyed that I missed part of the ride.
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Offline austingirl

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Re: Investments
« Reply #47 on: September 21, 2016, 11:41:16 AM »
@austingirl

I made a bunch of changes to my portfolio a bit over a week ago, which included dropping out of most stocks. I only kept 4 for now - CCJ, GD, GM, and GILD, along with my silver stake.

I had already dropped OCN at an 80% profit. The rest of the stocks had earned good returns, and I wanted to lock in some gains and sit out some of the September doldrums. (For example, my GNW gain was about 40%.) My timing was questionable.

Several stocks, including my version of MU - SWKS, have seen significant gains since I dropped out. SWKS is up another 12+% since my exit. Both GNW and HIIQ are up another 8+%. In fact, most of the stocks I sold are up more than 5% since I sold them - KPTI, 6.5%; IRBT, 7.35%; DDD, 6.39%. The others have smaller gains, and only QURE has gone down since I sold it.

Bear in mind, that I sold most of these at a good gain, so my "sour grapes" are that I could have earned more.

Meanwhile, the returns on my three biggest holdings have been pretty moderate:

GM - 4.08%
GD - 5.68%
GILD - 2.56%

I think I've held all these for less than two months, so it's not too bad. I'm still waiting on CCJ to break out.

Bottom line: I tried to time the market and probably failed. I didn't lose money as a result, but missed out on a chance to earn a lot more. I'm going to put my money back in soon and stick with the strategy of picking winners and not panicking when Fed speculation is giving the market fits. I will probably buy many of the stocks I sold off, because many of them are still technically winners. I'm just annoyed that I missed part of the ride.

@bolobaby

That is always the risk- losing out on profits- but in this market it is better to be cautious and take profits, IMHO.

Good luck.
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Offline austingirl

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Re: Investments
« Reply #48 on: September 21, 2016, 01:15:50 PM »
FWIW- I despise the fed-a bunch of inept crony capitalists. Today the markets will be hanging on idiot Yellen's every word once again and parsing her nonsense. Sorry had to vent. :chairbang:
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Online mrpotatohead

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Re: Investments
« Reply #49 on: September 21, 2016, 04:07:20 PM »
 
FWIW- I despise the fed-a bunch of inept crony capitalists. Today the markets will be hanging on idiot Yellen's every word once again and parsing her nonsense. Sorry had to vent. :chairbang:
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