Author Topic: Investments  (Read 6057 times)

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Online bolobaby

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Investments
« on: July 27, 2016, 10:19:46 PM »
Earnings seasons is in full swing. As is usual, this may create some changes in my portfolio. I'm always looking for new investment ideas to research, so I figured I might start a thread for TBR members to share potential investments.

I'm most excited about Ocwen (OCN) right now. I spotted this one at $1.53. Looks like they might go over $2.00 tomorrow given their earnings release today.

I also bought General Dynamics (GD) recently. Although a lot of defense stocks are waaay up recently, I figure that Obama has been gutting the military. GD has not enjoyed the same kind of ride as, say, Lockheed Martin or Raytheon, so I'm hoping it is a late bloomer.

Some other stocks I'm currently holding:

TREE - I recently decreased my position significantly here after taking some profits. The action on this stock is crazy. I'm not sure where earnings will take this stock, so my position is modest now. Either way, I've locked in some profits here.

KPTI and QURE - Two biotechs. I split the amount I would normally invest in a single stock between these two. Biotech can be risky, but - fundamentally - I think one of these will pan out. KPTI announced some promising findings today which gave me a nice 4.21% return for the day.

DOW - I've been holding this one for a while and it's been paying off. Good price action, plus dividends. I'll continue to hold until I have to make a decision on which spinoff I have to buy from the mega-merger with DuPont.

IRBT - I was very pleased with their earnings call. I simply had to have a robotics play in my portfolio, and IRBT has filled the void. (We personally own a Roomba 980 and love it, too.) Robotics is barely scratching the surface of its potential right now as an industry, so finding the right play here will be tricky. It could be Apple or Alphabet that ends up owning the market. We'll see.

ENS - I'm waiting for the graphene battery breakthrough. I doubt Enersys will be the company to pull it off, but we are a power hungry society. Power storage has a place in my portfolio and the sub-1 PEG ratio has kept me in this stock for a little while. I may sell soon. We'll see.

CTRL - One of my losers. I'm down here but can't bring myself to sell this stock. Home automation WILL be a "thing" in the future. Every sci-fi movie has houses that are voice controlled and intelligent. Moreover, at this price, I'm thinking *someone* has to buy this company. Good PEG ratio, hardly any debt, and a high short percentage for a potential squeeze. They really need some solid management to get their margins in order. (Oh - and the company that should buy them is IRBT!)

DDD - Another one of my losers. 3D printing is an amazing technology, though. Right now, my kids and I are 3D printing a full-sized BB8 as a summer project. Someday, this technology may represent something straight out of Neil Stephenson's "The Diamond Age." Regardless, I've gotten killed on this stock. Lots of shake-up with management recently, though. Short interest has recently declined on 3D stocks. Maybe the only direction for this stock is up, now.

ZNGA - This is not a stock I'd usually own. I don't really like many of the numbers that come with this stock. Still, I've made money with it, albeit not a lot. So why did I buy it? Primarily because it is sitting on $857MM in cash and no debt. It has to do *something* with that money, right? I'm taking a chance. I wouldn't recommend anyone else get into this one unless you are confident with your investment. I'd put a hard trailing stop on this one because God knows...

Silver - Physical silver. It's up nearly 30% from where I bought it, so it's doing my whole portfolio good. Is it peaking? Well, as a hedge, silver is a good bet. It has more industrial uses than gold. It's helped my portfolio on many a day when everything else is down. Not sure I will keep changing my position on this one. Price is volatile, but it's more of an insurance policy than anything else.

What about you? Do you have any companies I should look at?
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Online bolobaby

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Re: Investments
« Reply #1 on: July 27, 2016, 10:21:49 PM »
Uh... disclaimer: do not trade in stocks without doing your own research. The post above is not meant as investment advice. Trade at your own risk. Yadda yadda yadda.
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Online bolobaby

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Re: Investments
« Reply #2 on: July 28, 2016, 09:56:37 AM »
25 reads and not one pick? C'mon investors - it's a tough market to pick winners given the fact that the Dow is up over 18k. Everything looks overbought. What do you think is not?
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Offline Free Vulcan

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Re: Investments
« Reply #3 on: July 28, 2016, 10:15:17 AM »
I don't like being in the markets for more than 2 or 3 hours, but then that's the game with options.
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Online Bigun

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Re: Investments
« Reply #4 on: July 28, 2016, 11:22:20 AM »
I don't like being in the markets for more than 2 or 3 hours, but then that's the game with options.

I've been messing around with TVIX on a very short term basis lately with some good success but would not recommend this to anyone who doesn't know EXACTLY what he is doing.

Offline Free Vulcan

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Re: Investments
« Reply #5 on: July 28, 2016, 11:43:22 AM »
I've been messing around with TVIX on a very short term basis lately with some good success but would not recommend this to anyone who doesn't know EXACTLY what he is doing.

Trade the SPY's myself. VIX always interested me, trading the options on that, but I agree you need to know your stuff. Not sure I'm up for that one yet.
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Online bolobaby

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Re: Investments
« Reply #6 on: July 28, 2016, 11:52:38 AM »
I've been messing around with TVIX on a very short term basis lately with some good success but would not recommend this to anyone who doesn't know EXACTLY what he is doing.

Yowzer. Looks dangerous:

YTD Return   -65.18%
3y Average Return   -80.88%
5y Average Return   -83.48%
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Online Bigun

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Re: Investments
« Reply #7 on: July 28, 2016, 11:55:07 AM »
Yowzer. Looks dangerous:

YTD Return   -65.18%
3y Average Return   -80.88%
5y Average Return   -83.48%

VERY! My exposure there is very small for that very reason.

As I said messing around with it isn't for the average investor but they do it anyway.

« Last Edit: July 28, 2016, 11:56:07 AM by Bigun »

Offline AbaraXas

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Re: Investments
« Reply #8 on: July 28, 2016, 11:55:45 AM »
I've been messing around with TVIX on a very short term basis lately with some good success but would not recommend this to anyone who doesn't know EXACTLY what he is doing.

You must be riding patterns. I used to do that a lot on penny stocks and made a nice sum. I've changed my approach now and go for unnecessarily beat down stocks and ride their loss out of the storm.

Online bolobaby

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Re: Investments
« Reply #9 on: July 28, 2016, 11:56:00 AM »
TREE and OCN are doing a fine job of propping my entire portfolio today. I'm surprised we've settled at only ~+10% on OCN. If you actually read into TREE's earnings re: mortgage, it should spell good news for OCN. Love to see it go closer to ~+20% where it was earlier today.
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Online Bigun

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Re: Investments
« Reply #10 on: July 28, 2016, 11:59:53 AM »
You must be riding patterns. I used to do that a lot on penny stocks and made a nice sum. I've changed my approach now and go for unnecessarily beat down stocks and ride their loss out of the storm.

Yep! 

I ALWAYS look for value in the markets.  In the past I have bought stocks that were selling at a price below the net assets value of the company.

Online bolobaby

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Re: Investments
« Reply #11 on: July 28, 2016, 12:01:34 PM »
You must be riding patterns. I used to do that a lot on penny stocks and made a nice sum. I've changed my approach now and go for unnecessarily beat down stocks and ride their loss out of the storm.

I like stocks that have taken an unnecessary beat down, especially when they have zero debt and huge sums of capital. At that point, every dollar they make goes into an already substantial war chest.

Speaking of stocks taking the beat down, I'm now giving serious look to getting into Ford (F) due to today's price action. The biggest thing that gives me pause is the fact that they want to expand fleet sales, which may help revenue, but will play havoc with margins.

If it dropped anywhere near 11.75 today, I'd buy in a heartbeat for a quick 10%. I don't think it is going to get there, so I have to think carefully if I want in at $12.50. I think I do.

EDIT: I'll hold off. Let's see if it goes to 11.75 over the next week. GM has better underlying numbers, so if I was going to pull the trigger today, it would probably be better with GM since they are experiencing a sympathetic hit of 4%.
« Last Edit: July 28, 2016, 12:21:51 PM by bolobaby »
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Online bolobaby

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Re: Investments
« Reply #12 on: July 28, 2016, 02:33:26 PM »
For the record, I did pull the trigger on GM, but only at half my normal buy amount. Nonetheless, it posted a 0.79% gain for the day from where I bought it.

Sigh - if only I could make 0.79% gain every day on all my stocks. That would be something like a 700% gain for a trading year.
« Last Edit: July 28, 2016, 04:18:11 PM by bolobaby »
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Online bolobaby

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Re: Investments
« Reply #13 on: July 29, 2016, 04:04:16 PM »
OK - last time I'll post portfolio activity here unless some folks chime in that they are interested. (Mighty quiet. Was hoping for some good dialogue on investments.  :0001:)

Nonetheless, I did put a half-sized stake down on Stratasys (SSYS) today. Why? Well, I was thinking about buying more DDD to cost average down my losses there, based on the belief that it will go up a bit from here. Instead, I looked over SSYS and think they have the more attractive growth prospects, cash reserve, and path to profitability.

So, I'm cost-averaging the sector, I hope. :-)

In at 20.97/share.

I have a feeling one of these two companies will get bought in the next 12-18 months.
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Offline AbaraXas

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Re: Investments
« Reply #14 on: July 29, 2016, 04:33:26 PM »
Yep! 

I ALWAYS look for value in the markets.  In the past I have bought stocks that were selling at a price below the net assets value of the company.

Right now I'm sitting on AAPL, BCS, & IHRT as some that have been beaten down unnecessarily. AAPL is up about 6% since I bought, BCS 17%, IHRT 21%, and that's just the past month or so. Not a whole lot of gain compared to when I was riding penny stocks but I am choosing some with less downside risk. I was buying and pattern playing a lot with BMIX and AGCZ, I could get 200% moves in one day easily, and play that 3-4 times per month, but then they started dying down on activity. I noticed that penny stocks really don't get the volume they used to. I'm not too aggressive. If I sat on it all day, I could probably not work, but I make enough that I can dump back into retirement and not worry about the downside risk too much.

My best move ever wasn't my biggest percent move but just good timing, but I bought a LOT of Ford when all the automakers crashed and it went to around .90- but they said they wouldn't take a bailout. I cashed out at about $6 and paid for most of my house.

Online Bigun

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Re: Investments
« Reply #15 on: July 29, 2016, 04:41:09 PM »
OK - last time I'll post portfolio activity here unless some folks chime in that they are interested. (Mighty quiet. Was hoping for some good dialogue on investments.  :0001:)

Nonetheless, I did put a half-sized stake down on Stratasys (SSYS) today. Why? Well, I was thinking about buying more DDD to cost average down my losses there, based on the belief that it will go up a bit from here. Instead, I looked over SSYS and think they have the more attractive growth prospects, cash reserve, and path to profitability.

So, I'm cost-averaging the sector, I hope. :-)

In at 20.97/share.

I have a feeling one of these two companies will get bought in the next 12-18 months.

I have no problem talking about these things in general terms but not at all comfortable with telling anyone exactly what I'm doing  or why I'm  doing it.

To me that's like asking a fisherman to tell you where he caught those fish.  :whistle:
« Last Edit: July 29, 2016, 04:41:55 PM by Bigun »

Offline mrpotatohead

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Re: Investments
« Reply #16 on: July 29, 2016, 05:11:31 PM »
I got some excellent advice from a very wise man that I worked with years ago.  He said....buy 3 or 4 solid oil co's, put it in dividend reinvestment and leave it alone.  Energy isn't going anywhere.  He had purchased Phillips Petroleum, Mobil, and Burlington Resources.  This was back in the late 70's.  He put in around 30k in each.  When he died a few years back the stock was worth millions and the dividends were huge.

Of course some of those stocks merged, were bought out, etc....but it goes to show that good solid companies will continue to do well. 

Did I take this advice....of course not...lolololololol.

I did purchase some FFIN, which is a local bank, but is one of the most solid banks in the country...certainly worth looking into.
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Online bolobaby

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Re: Investments
« Reply #17 on: July 29, 2016, 05:19:13 PM »
I have no problem talking about these things in general terms but not at all comfortable with telling anyone exactly what I'm doing  or why I'm  doing it.

To me that's like asking a fisherman to tell you where he caught those fish.  :whistle:

That is an unusual philosophy when it comes to investing since generating interest in your investments usually results in upward price pressure.

I'm not posting stocks to "pump and dump," just start dialogue, but talking about good investments is typically only *good* for the investment.
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Online bolobaby

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Re: Investments
« Reply #18 on: July 29, 2016, 05:30:44 PM »
Right now I'm sitting on AAPL, BCS, & IHRT as some that have been beaten down unnecessarily. AAPL is up about 6% since I bought, BCS 17%, IHRT 21%, and that's just the past month or so. Not a whole lot of gain compared to when I was riding penny stocks but I am choosing some with less downside risk. I was buying and pattern playing a lot with BMIX and AGCZ, I could get 200% moves in one day easily, and play that 3-4 times per month, but then they started dying down on activity. I noticed that penny stocks really don't get the volume they used to. I'm not too aggressive. If I sat on it all day, I could probably not work, but I make enough that I can dump back into retirement and not worry about the downside risk too much.

My best move ever wasn't my biggest percent move but just good timing, but I bought a LOT of Ford when all the automakers crashed and it went to around .90- but they said they wouldn't take a bailout. I cashed out at about $6 and paid for most of my house.

My plan was to buy AAPL if it went sub-90. I think it got close, but I never pulled the trigger. Naturally, I wish I had, but the SIZE of AAPL made me hesitate. I figured I might see better gains elsewhere.

I *just* looked at BCS the other day! I might take another look.

IHRT looks like a timing play. Volume is so low, you could manipulate the price yourself.

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Online bolobaby

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Re: Investments
« Reply #19 on: July 29, 2016, 05:34:41 PM »
I got some excellent advice from a very wise man that I worked with years ago.  He said....buy 3 or 4 solid oil co's, put it in dividend reinvestment and leave it alone.  Energy isn't going anywhere.  He had purchased Phillips Petroleum, Mobil, and Burlington Resources.  This was back in the late 70's.  He put in around 30k in each.  When he died a few years back the stock was worth millions and the dividends were huge.

Of course some of those stocks merged, were bought out, etc....but it goes to show that good solid companies will continue to do well. 

Did I take this advice....of course not...lolololololol.

I did purchase some FFIN, which is a local bank, but is one of the most solid banks in the country...certainly worth looking into.

The general rule is that if you take 30k and put it in any reasonable investment that earns near double digit returns, you will have a million-plus 40 years later.

The DOW has had an average return of 9.6% over the past 40 years. That would be a million if you invested the 30k in an index fund.

If you're young, you should always squirrel away some money instead of buying the fancy car. Let it ride and retire in comfort later. The problem is, most people don't have 40 years of patience!
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Offline AbaraXas

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Re: Investments
« Reply #20 on: July 29, 2016, 05:45:26 PM »
My plan was to buy AAPL if it went sub-90. I think it got close, but I never pulled the trigger. Naturally, I wish I had, but the SIZE of AAPL made me hesitate. I figured I might see better gains elsewhere.

I *just* looked at BCS the other day! I might take another look.

IHRT looks like a timing play. Volume is so low, you could manipulate the price yourself.

BCS got hit hard with Brexit but they have a lot of liquid capital and have some solid financials. There is no reason a major bank like that with their margins should be that low. It was all psychological with fear over Brexit.

Offline Chieftain

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Re: Investments
« Reply #21 on: July 29, 2016, 05:53:49 PM »
Buy low.  Sell high.

That is all.

 :beer:

Online Bigun

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Re: Investments
« Reply #22 on: July 29, 2016, 06:11:39 PM »
That is an unusual philosophy when it comes to investing since generating interest in your investments usually results in upward price pressure.

I'm not posting stocks to "pump and dump," just start dialogue, but talking about good investments is typically only *good* for the investment.

Perhaps that is so but the fact is that I have a few more winters on me than most of you and have a strategy tailored to my specific needs at this point in my life makes me very leary of talking about it in public in any great detail.

Online bolobaby

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Re: Investments
« Reply #23 on: July 29, 2016, 06:30:58 PM »
Perhaps that is so but the fact is that I have a few more winters on me than most of you and have a strategy tailored to my specific needs at this point in my life makes me very leary of talking about it in public in any great detail.

OK - suit yourself.
How to lose credibility while posting:
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Online bolobaby

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Re: Investments
« Reply #24 on: July 29, 2016, 06:31:26 PM »
Buy low.  Sell high.

That is all.

 :beer:

Living up to your site title! :-)
How to lose credibility while posting:
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2. Default to the most puerile emoticon you can find. This is especially useful when you can't win an argument on merits.
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4. When all else fails, remember rule #1 and #2. Emoticons are like the poor man's tweet!


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