In the Australian election yesterday, the governing Liberal Party lost a lot of seats, and the current expectation is a hung parliament. This means that independents won enough seats to give them the balance of power between the governing Liberal Party and the opposition Labor party.
Please note that in Australia, the Liberal Party, in spite of its name, is considered to be a Conservative political force, like the Republicans in the US. The Labor party is Australia's Democrats.
The elected leader of the Liberals (previous election) was Tony Abbott, but he was replaced by an inner party coup in September last year. Abbott was considered a strong Conservative. He was replaced by Malcolm Turnbull, a wet liberal who was expected to have broader support.
So called election guru Mark Textor (adviser to UK Conservatives, Canada's Conservatives, NZ National Party and believed to have some influence in the US through the Textor-Crosby consulting group) replied to Conservative criticism of the coup by saying this-
“The qualitative evidence is they (Conservatives) don’t matter, the sum of a more centrist approach outweighs any alleged marginal loss of so-called base voters. "
The outcome of Australia's election has shown this prediction to be horribly wrong. Conservatives will not vote for someone they perceive as a liberal/ progressive. Turnbull's party has lost around 15 seats at current counting. They had 90 seats in the last parliament, but have only 65 seats as I write. Many seats are too close to call.
My personal view is that the Republicans lost the US election the day that Trump became the presumptive presidential candidate. (Presuming he is confirmed) For the same reason that the Liberal Party's vote collapsed in Australia. Conservatives will not vote for a liberal progressive and especially a New York type liberal.
The Republicans need to take a long hard look at what just happened in Australia.
