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Author Topic: Brexit Vote Live Thread  (Read 9801 times)

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Offline LonestarDream

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Re: Brexit Vote Live Thread
« Reply #50 on: June 24, 2016, 01:59:30 am »
Leave up 50.1% with 25% in.
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Online Bigun

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Re: Brexit Vote Live Thread
« Reply #51 on: June 24, 2016, 02:03:59 am »
Quote from: EC on June 24, 2016, 01:23:24 am
I think leave will take it by under 10,000 votes.

You are on the ground there and thus much closer to the action so I'll have to take your word for it.

Just for the record, if I could vote it would be to get the hell out!
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Offline kevindavis007

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Re: Brexit Vote Live Thread
« Reply #52 on: June 24, 2016, 02:05:10 am »

Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
Watford. Predicted to be 46% for Leave but is actually 53% #euref
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Offline LonestarDream

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Re: Brexit Vote Live Thread
« Reply #53 on: June 24, 2016, 02:05:36 am »
Quote from: Bigun on June 24, 2016, 02:03:59 am
You are on the ground there and thus much closer to the action so I'll have to take your word for it.

Just for the record, if I could vote it would be to get the hell out!

Immigration is the issue.  Just like the US....

Reminds me of Thatcher to Reagan.. 
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Offline LonestarDream

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Re: Brexit Vote Live Thread
« Reply #54 on: June 24, 2016, 02:07:15 am »
Quote from: kevindavis on June 24, 2016, 02:05:10 am
Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
Watford. Predicted to be 46% for Leave but is actually 53% #euref

Exactly.  You are getting the hang of it.  Like the swing counties in FLA and Ohio . 

Leave is clearly out performing in key districts...

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Offline LonestarDream

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Re: Brexit Vote Live Thread
« Reply #55 on: June 24, 2016, 02:10:51 am »


Our chief political correspondent Christopher Hope has this update.

Tomorrow will be a meltdown for the Prime Minister. A narrow win and he is in trouble. A Brexit and he can't last. One former Tory Cabinet minister tells me: "Cameron is toast."


Fine by me....
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Offline kevindavis007

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Re: Brexit Vote Live Thread
« Reply #56 on: June 24, 2016, 02:12:11 am »

@henryolsenEPPC
Torbay, home to Basil Fawlty from Fawlty Towers, voted 63% for Leave.
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Offline LonestarDream

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Re: Brexit Vote Live Thread
« Reply #57 on: June 24, 2016, 02:12:57 am »
Probability of a Remain win? 'Zero'

The experts at the University of East Anglia have just posted another update to their forecasts.

Chris Hanretty, reader in politics, writes on his blog:

    My predictions continue to be much more pessimistic for Remain than the betting markets, though they seem to be in between estimates from Michael Thrasher and JP Morgan.

        Predicted probability of Britain Remaining: 0
        (81 of 382 areas reporting.)



Grain of Salt.  These are Global warming people !!    :smokin: :smokin:
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Offline kevindavis007

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Re: Brexit Vote Live Thread
« Reply #58 on: June 24, 2016, 02:15:26 am »

@mukatkikaarn  49s49 seconds ago
Leave ahead by 100k in Wales, by almost 500k in England. Remain ahead by 444k in Scotland and 44k in N. Ireland #EUref
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Offline kevindavis007

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Re: Brexit Vote Live Thread
« Reply #59 on: June 24, 2016, 02:18:37 am »

Britain Elects @britainelects 2m2 minutes ago
Prof. John Curtice has not made a call but says Leave are now the favourites to win.
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Offline EC

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Re: Brexit Vote Live Thread
« Reply #60 on: June 24, 2016, 02:24:06 am »
Leave

5,082,616 Votes


Remain

4,947,699 Votes


The Midlands are starting to trickle in now. Only 2 London boroughs so far in (both for remain) - and London has a huge impact, since a sixth of the total population live here.
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Offline LonestarDream

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Re: Brexit Vote Live Thread
« Reply #61 on: June 24, 2016, 02:24:23 am »


One leave party
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Offline kevindavis007

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Re: Brexit Vote Live Thread
« Reply #62 on: June 24, 2016, 02:24:57 am »

@SkyData
Prof Michael Thrasher preliminary forecast as things stand for @skynews:


Leave 56%
Remain 44%
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Offline kevindavis007

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Re: Brexit Vote Live Thread
« Reply #63 on: June 24, 2016, 02:25:44 am »
Quote from: EC on June 24, 2016, 02:24:06 am
Leave

5,082,616 Votes


Remain

4,947,699 Votes


The Midlands are starting to trickle in now. Only 2 London boroughs so far in (both for remain) - and London has a huge impact, since a sixth of the total population live here.


Looks like London might help the remain faction.
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Offline LonestarDream

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Re: Brexit Vote Live Thread
« Reply #64 on: June 24, 2016, 02:26:53 am »
Quote from: kevindavis on June 24, 2016, 02:25:44 am

Looks like London might help the remain faction.

Yup..  All the yuppies there as EC points out.

Many of which are my colleagues.. 
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Re: Brexit Vote Live Thread
« Reply #65 on: June 24, 2016, 02:27:46 am »
This should be interesting. If the UK leaves the EU there will be more pain than some are willing to admit, but in the long run I think it's fitting because the UK never was "continental" and the EU is predominantly "continental."
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Offline kevindavis007

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Re: Brexit Vote Live Thread
« Reply #66 on: June 24, 2016, 02:29:45 am »
BBC is reporting 315,919 leading to leave....
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Offline kevindavis007

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Re: Brexit Vote Live Thread
« Reply #67 on: June 24, 2016, 02:30:44 am »
Quote from: Oceander on June 24, 2016, 02:27:46 am
This should be interesting. If the UK leaves the EU there will be more pain than some are willing to admit, but in the long run I think it's fitting because the UK never was "continental" and the EU is predominantly "continental."


Well the problem with the EU is this, they have never been European.. For us we have been American..  They never had a sense of unity.. Not since the Roman Empire..
« Last Edit: June 24, 2016, 02:31:05 am by kevindavis »
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Offline kevindavis007

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Re: Brexit Vote Live Thread
« Reply #68 on: June 24, 2016, 02:35:11 am »

@JohnCassidy
The view from @chrishanretty, respected UK quant: "Predicted probability of Britain Remaining: 0" Yes, that's zero.
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Offline LonestarDream

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Re: Brexit Vote Live Thread
« Reply #69 on: June 24, 2016, 02:37:09 am »

Nigel Farage Verified account
‏@Nigel_Farage

61% in Oldham have backed #Brexit. Thrilled.
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Offline aligncare

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Re: Brexit Vote Live Thread
« Reply #70 on: June 24, 2016, 02:40:40 am »
Interestingly, history shows us that in recent times events in England, like this vote, foreshadow events in America.

When the British voted for Margaret Thatcher, Americans mirrored a vote for Ronald Reagan. When Englanders voted Labour Party, Americans embraced Bill Clinton and the democrats. This pattern has remained remarkably true for many decades.

A leave win would be a good sign for Trump’s America First campaign in November.
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Offline kevindavis007

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Re: Brexit Vote Live Thread
« Reply #71 on: June 24, 2016, 02:41:13 am »

@RhysHogben  1m1 minute ago
Out is taking a 2.4% lead! Come on! #EUref
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Offline LonestarDream

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Re: Brexit Vote Live Thread
« Reply #72 on: June 24, 2016, 02:42:40 am »
Yes.  And the key issue is the same, immigration and its impacts on the economy and security.

Quote from: aligncare on June 24, 2016, 02:40:40 am
Interestingly, history shows us that in recent times events in England, like this vote, foreshadow events in America.

When the British voted for Margaret Thatcher, Americans mirrored a vote for Ronald Reagan. When Englanders voted Labour Party, Americans embraced Bill Clinton and the democrats. This pattern has remained remarkably true for many decades.

A leave win would be a good sign for Trump’s America First campaign in November.
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Offline LonestarDream

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Re: Brexit Vote Live Thread
« Reply #73 on: June 24, 2016, 02:44:55 am »

Labour now assume Leave win

Labour is now working on the assumption that Leave is going to win, a party source has told The Guardian.

The newspaper reports that Labour HQ is weighing up whether Jeremy Corbyn should call for David Cameron's resignation in the event of a Brexit, but senior figures are reportedly saying the move "may prove unnecessary" as Mr Cameron may resign anyway.
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Offline kevindavis007

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Re: Brexit Vote Live Thread
« Reply #74 on: June 24, 2016, 02:53:18 am »

@OroyoEubanks  2m2 minutes ago
200 of 382 polling stations declared and #voteleave leads with 51.5% of the votes to 48.5% for #VoteRemain  - #EUreferendum
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