Author Topic: EgyptAir Flight Disappears From Radar  (Read 7317 times)

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Offline sinkspur

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Re: EgyptAir Flight Disappears From Radar
« Reply #25 on: May 19, 2016, 03:27:59 pm »
The detail that jumped out at me immediately was the presence of 10 crew members.  That's a large number, even considering three were security personnel.

I wonder if EgyptAir's security protocols are different for their crew members than the general public?   

This might be ghoulish speculation -  but I would not be surprised if one or more of the crew members were complicit.

Your speculation makes sense to me. Why did the plane go down ten miles off the coast of Egypt?  Could it be a crew member waiting until the plane was in Egyptian space, knowing how lax Egyptian investigations of air disasters are?   

Sabotage by crew seems more likely to me.
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Offline ArneFufkin

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Re: EgyptAir Flight Disappears From Radar
« Reply #26 on: May 19, 2016, 03:40:19 pm »
Your speculation makes sense to me. Why did the plane go down ten miles off the coast of Egypt?  Could it be a crew member waiting until the plane was in Egyptian space, knowing how lax Egyptian investigations of air disasters are?   

Sabotage by crew seems more likely to me.

48 paying passengers is about 1/3 full for an A320 so it would be easy for some EgyptAir employee to show up last minute for a "deadhead" lift to Cairo.   From a usual staffing point of view, that plane would have two previously scheduled pilots and three FAs.   That would imply the three Air Marshalls and two deadheaders were along for the ride.

Offline ExFreeper

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Re: EgyptAir Flight Disappears From Radar
« Reply #27 on: May 19, 2016, 03:46:37 pm »
Sabotage by crew seems more likely to me.

Since no "mayday", until more info is known, I would speculate a bomb timed to go off over Med.  I originally speculated a bomb triggered to go off upon descent, however Flightaware does not show descent (i.e. 370 at event).



https://flightaware.com/live/flight/MSR804/history/20160518/2045Z/LFPG/HECA/tracklog

« Last Edit: May 19, 2016, 05:36:04 pm by ExFreeper »
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Offline ExFreeper

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Re: EgyptAir Flight Disappears From Radar
« Reply #28 on: May 19, 2016, 05:35:25 pm »
The plane disappeared at 0245 -- wouldn't it have been dark then?

I had been wondering about that.  I will delete.
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Online DCPatriot

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Re: EgyptAir Flight Disappears From Radar
« Reply #29 on: May 19, 2016, 08:54:59 pm »
"It aint what you don't know that kills you.  It's what you know that aint so!" ...Theodore Sturgeon

"Journalism is about covering the news.  With a pillow.  Until it stops moving."    - David Burge (Iowahawk)

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Offline kjam22

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Re: EgyptAir Flight Disappears From Radar
« Reply #30 on: May 20, 2016, 12:48:25 am »
Trump tweets:   Looks like yet another terrorist attack. Airplane departed from Paris. When will we get tough, smart and vigilant? Great hate and sickness!


So I'm wondering if the Trumpsters here have any idea exactly what the American President should do to protect Planes flying for Egyptian Air leaving Paris and heading for Egypt?
« Last Edit: May 20, 2016, 12:49:38 am by kjam22 »
America needs God's forgiveness....... Even if Donald Trump doesn't think he does.

Offline sinkspur

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Re: EgyptAir Flight Disappears From Radar
« Reply #31 on: May 20, 2016, 12:54:26 am »
Shoot first, find out the truth later.

Yeah, that's exactly what we want in a CIC. 
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Offline Mechanicos

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Re: EgyptAir Flight Disappears From Radar
« Reply #32 on: May 20, 2016, 12:54:33 am »
Destroy ISIS, take their oil and break them financially.
Trump is for America First.
"Crooked Hillary Clinton is the Secretary of the Status Quo – and wherever Hillary Clinton goes, corruption and scandal follow." D. Trump 7/11/16

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Offline Mechanicos

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Re: EgyptAir Flight Disappears From Radar
« Reply #33 on: May 20, 2016, 12:55:38 am »
Shoot first, find out the truth later.

Yeah, that's exactly what we want in a CIC.
13859
Trump is for America First.
"Crooked Hillary Clinton is the Secretary of the Status Quo – and wherever Hillary Clinton goes, corruption and scandal follow." D. Trump 7/11/16

Did you know that the word ‘gullible’ is not in the dictionary?

Isaiah 54:17

Offline kjam22

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Re: EgyptAir Flight Disappears From Radar
« Reply #34 on: May 20, 2016, 01:00:47 am »
Destroy ISIS, take their oil and break them financially.

And will that protect flights from Paris to Egypt? 
America needs God's forgiveness....... Even if Donald Trump doesn't think he does.

Offline kjam22

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Re: EgyptAir Flight Disappears From Radar
« Reply #35 on: May 20, 2016, 01:02:40 am »
13859

Maybe we can use taxpayer dollars to install American TSA workers in every major airport in the world???
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Online mountaineer

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Re: EgyptAir Flight Disappears From Radar
« Reply #36 on: May 20, 2016, 01:19:28 am »
Maybe we can use taxpayer dollars to install American TSA workers in every major airport in the world???
Yeah, that's working.    :whistle:
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A-Lert

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Re: EgyptAir Flight Disappears From Radar
« Reply #37 on: May 20, 2016, 01:21:15 am »
Trump tweets:   Looks like yet another terrorist attack. Airplane departed from Paris. When will we get tough, smart and vigilant? Great hate and sickness!


So I'm wondering if the Trumpsters here have any idea exactly what the American President should do to protect Planes flying for Egyptian Air leaving Paris and heading for Egypt?

WE=civilized people of the world. French and Egyptians weren't the only victims.

rangerrebew

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Re: EgyptAir Flight Disappears From Radar
« Reply #38 on: May 20, 2016, 09:53:52 am »
EgyptAir crash has markings of Muslim Brotherhood operation
'Look at who stands to benefit'
Published: 8 hours ago


The fate of EgyptAir Flight MS-804 has once again thrown the media spotlight on Paris, France, where the plane took off for Cairo before going down over the Mediterranean Sea.

All 66 people aboard perished.

U.S. intelligence agencies said the crash exhibited “indications of an explosion.”

The airliner, only 13 years old, was cruising at high altitude in good weather conditions when it suddenly went down. There was no call of distress.

While much of the media has focused on Paris as the location where a terrorist could have loaded a bomb onto the plane, an expert of Egyptian politics and the Muslim Brotherhood says look again at Cairo.

The plane left Cairo for Paris and then was on a return flight to Cairo when it went down.

It only sat on the ground in Paris for an hour, said Dr. Mark Christian, founder and president of the Global Faith Institute, an Omaha-Nebraska-based think tank that focuses on Islamic terrorism.

image: http://www.wnd.com/files/2014/09/Dr.-Mark-Christian-289x300.jpg
Dr. Mark Christian grew up in a prominent Muslim family in Egypt and converted to Christianity as an adult. He has been disowned by his family.

Dr. Mark Christian grew up in a prominent Muslim family in Egypt and converted to Christianity as an adult. He has been disowned by his family.

Christian, who grew up in Egypt the son of a Muslim Brotherhood member and became a child imam by the age of 14, says the Brotherhood has the most to gain from a terror attack on EgyptAir and has been active in a string of terror attacks recently in the country.

Eight national police officers were killed in an ambush as they got off a government minivan in central Cairo May 8. Five former police officers suspected of carrying out the attack remain on the run.

A string of fires have been set at Egyptian tourist sites within the last two weeks.

The economy is in shambles with inflation approaching 40 percent.

The government of President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi is seen as vulnerable, and the Muslim Brotherhood would like nothing better than to topple him.

“Nobody can dispute that the Muslim Brotherhood is doing whatever they can to turn the tide and remove the military from power and take over Egypt again and oust the current administration of Sisi that is backed up by the Russians and has been estranged from America and the West,” Christian said. “To take out Sisi, you have to do three things: destroy the economy, stability and security of the country.”

The fires set at tourist sites strike at the heart of Egypt’s economy. The attacks on the police by insiders strikes at the national security apparatus.

“This is all meant to weaken Sisi and show he’s not capable of running the country,” Christian said.

The fact that the plane was only on the ground in Paris for an hour makes it unlikely someone was able to sneak a bomb onto the flight. The French are known to have one of the tightest airport security systems in the world and would have been on high alert give the recent terror attacks there.

“If you look at the circumstances of this attack, it is not a coincidence that the last several incidents took place in Egypt, the first being the Russian plane downed over the Sinai killing all 224 passengers and now this, all in a matter of six months. So you look at this and see there is a pattern, and who is benefiting from this? ISIS is not. The Muslim Brotherhood is.”

Christian says the obvious gap in security was in Egypt, “where you already have police officers turning into terrorists and you have people warring against each other. So it seems like something was put on the plane while sitting in Egypt. And so if it was a timed bomb, it exploded six hours after leaving Egypt.”

Recent attacks on tourist sites, security forces

What does the militant wing of the Muslim Brotherhood stand to benefit from this?

When Sisi took over Egypt and led a coup against the former Brotherhood-backed regime of Muhammad Morsi, he promised Egyptians he would lead them into prosperity and would keep them safe. He has not delivered on those promises, and now the Brotherhood smells its chance to return to power.

“Destroy the Egyptian tourist industry and expose the gaps in security, making Sisi look weak and leaving Egypt with more instability and economic distress,” Christian said. “All of this is an embarrassment for Sisi not only nationally but internationally as a man who cannot keep his country safe and as a man who is destroying the Egyptian economy.”

The Obama administration has done nothing to help bolster Sisi, as it has sided in the past with Morsi and the Brotherhood.

“The only organization that would benefit from this crime is not ISIS but the Muslim Brotherhood, and the Muslim Brotherhood and ISIS are one in the same anyway,” Christian said.

Christian said the Brotherhood has a secret militant wing that is involved in much of the dirty work of planning and fomenting terrorism in the Middle East.

“They work in concert with the non-militant political wing,” he said. “This is the key to the Brotherhood’s success from day one back to the 1940s.”

Phil Haney, a former Customs and Border Patrol officer who served two terms with Homeland Security’s National Targeting Center, said he agrees with Christian, especially in light of the activities of groups such as Hamas, and/or ISIS, which are operating in Egypt today, as well as other armed Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated groups operating in Jordan, Libya, Syria and Tunisia.

“The revelation came as security experts, ministers and former air accident investigators said all the evidence pointed to the plane being targeted in a terrorist attack,” said Haney, author of “See Something Say Nothing: A Homeland Security Officer Exposes the Government’s Submission to Jihad.”

“If confirmed, the disaster would deal another hammer blow to Egypt’s crippled tourism industry just months after a Russian Metrojet plane was brought down in the Sinai peninsula by a bomb planted at Sharm el-Sheikh airport,” Haney said.

ISIS has been waging a deadly insurgency against Egyptian security forces and last October claimed the bombing of the Russian airliner that killed all 224 people on board.

The EgyptAir plane that crashed into the Mediterranean had flown to terror hotspots in Tunisia, Eritrea and Belgium in the days before the disaster.

If a bomb was not loaded aboard the plane in Cairo, it could have occurred in one of these other hotspots, Haney said.

More than 20 people were killed in the Tunisian capital, Tunis, in March last year when two Islamist militants stormed the Bardo Museum.

Meanwhile, Ethiopian authorities said last week they had thwarted a terror attack by jihadists who trained and armed in Eritrea’s capital of Asmara.

“If it turns out that the apparent bomb was place on board in Paris, then it becomes obvious that a sophisticated network of terrorist operatives has been established in France, and that they are operating with near impunity,” Haney said.

A ‘game changer’ for airport security?

“If the apparent bomb was placed on board before Flight MS804 arrived in Paris, this would engender a whole new set of questions and concerns, not only about the level of security at each one of the three other airports, but also about the affiliations and sophistication of the individuals involved in planning and coordinating such an attack.”

Haney said Western intelligence will be mistaken if they believe only ISIS would carry out an attack like this.

“These kind of attacks benefit an entire coalition of affiliated Salafi jihadist groups, which are all part of the global Islamic movement,” Haney said, and that global movement is headed by the Muslim Brotherhood.

Christian said the destruction of Egypt Air Flight 803 is a “game changer,” especially if it turns out that airport security personnel in Cairo were involved in planting the bomb on board the plane.

“This plane going down is a complete game changer, because since 9/11 aviation security has been focused on the passengers and their luggage, but now you have planes coming from jihadist areas, and you have no idea how they have been screened. And they may come to the West and to America as a ticking bomb,” he said.

“If they can time one to go off in six hours, then they can push it to 11 hours, and that means a plane can explode after leaving New York City having come from Cairo. So here they are screening people and luggage, but now you have a plane that is exploding as it takes off with a timed bomb. For American aviation, that is a huge big deal. And if you are going to miss that perspective, then we can miss a ticking bomb that is targeting America.”

Read more at http://www.wnd.com/2016/05/egyptair-crash-has-markings-of-muslim-brotherhood-operation/#6gv7ZcQRS8wvvO8C.99

Online mountaineer

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Re: EgyptAir Flight Disappears From Radar
« Reply #39 on: May 20, 2016, 12:48:40 pm »
Live updates: EgyptAir 804 wreckage, body parts found, authorities say


Egypt said it has located parts of the missing EgyptAir plane in the Mediterranean Sea Friday. Yahoo News is live-blogging the latest developments. (Egyptian Defense Ministry)

Airplane seats, a body part, and luggage items have been spotted by crews searching for the wreckage of EgyptAir flight 804, authorities said. The plane bound from Paris to Cairo, carrying 66 passengers and crew members, crashed in the Mediterranean Sea after disappearing from the radar early Thursday. What brought down the flight has not been determined. Yahoo News is following the latest developments in the live blog below.  ...

More at link, Yahoo News
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rangerrebew

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Re: EgyptAir Flight Disappears From Radar
« Reply #40 on: May 20, 2016, 12:48:48 pm »
Debris, body part and luggage found from EgyptAir flight: Egyptian military
#EgyptAir

Egyptian military say debris and body part from missing EgyptAir plane have been found, as families mourn deaths of 66 people onboard
A relative of a passenger who was aboard the EgyptAir flight cries at Cairo airport on Thursday (AFP)
MEE and agencies's picture
MEE and agencies
Friday 20 May 2016 06:56 UTC
Last update:
Friday 20 May 2016 11:42 UTC
 

Debris found in the Mediterranean on Friday is believed to be from missing EgyptAir flight MS804, the Egyptian military has said.

The Egyptian military's official spokesman said on Facebook that the debris, which included passengers belongings and parts of the aircraft, was found in an area of the Mediterranean 290km north of Alexandria. Reuters has reported that the Egyptian Navy are searching for the plane's black box.
The Greek defence minister Panos Kammenos later said Egyptian vessels had spotted a body part, two seats and suitcases in search for the EgyptAir plane. He added that data clearly shows that the aircraft took sharp turns and plunged, but said the analysis is for experts to determine, according to Reuters.

Flight MS804 was en route from Paris to Cairo with 66 passengers and crew onboard when it vanished early on Thursday morning.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has expressed his condolences to the families of the victims. In a statement released by his office, he said: “The presidency with utmost sadness and regret mourns the victims on board the EgyptAir flight who were killed after the plane crashed in the Mediterranean on its way back to Cairo from Paris.”

Egypt's aviation minister said on Thursday that while it was too soon to say why the Airbus A320 flying from Paris to Cairo had vanished from radar screens, a "terrorist" attack was a far more likely scenario than a technical failure, an analysis widely backed up by aviation experts.

However, on Friday, France's foreign minister said there was still "absolutely no indication" about what had caused the crash in which all 66 passengers and crew are feared to have been killed.

"We're looking at all possibilities, but none is being favoured over the others because we have absolutely no indication on the causes [of the crash]," Jean-Marc Ayrault told French television.

The French government will meet families of the victims on Saturday in order to "provide all the information we can," Ayrault added.

No group has as yet claimed the bombing, although suspicion has fallen on the Islamic State (IS) group, which has attacked both France and Egypt in the past year. The group took responsibility for the bombing of a Russian passenger jet over the Sinai last year that killed all 224 people on board within 10 hours of the attack.

EgyptAir says that there were 56 passengers on the Cairo-bound flight, including three children, as well as 10 crew members including three security personnel, a setup the airline described as standard practice.

Greek Defence Minister Panos Kammenos said the aircraft swerved sharply twice in Egyptian airspace before plunging 22,000 feet (6,700 metres) and disappearing from radar screens about an hour before it was due to land in Cairo. Mixed reports have emerged about whether the plane sent out a distress signal or not.

A Greek aviation source said the flight had disappeared from Greek radar at around 0029 GMT on Thursday, around 130 miles off the island of Karpathos.

Greek civil aviation chief Constantinos Litzerakos said the pilot had mentioned no problem in the last communication before the plane disappeared, and it had not deviated from its course.

"The flight controllers contacted the pilot at a height of 37,000 feet [near Athens]... he did not mention a problem," Litzerakos told Greece's Antenna TV. EgyptAir's Adel also said there had been "no distress call" before the plane vanished.

Neither the Greek coastguard nor the navy could confirm reports that a passing ship had seen "a ball of fire in the sky".

The civil aviation chief said if there had been an explosion, any debris would have been scattered across a wide area.

The head of Greece’s air traffic control board, Serafeim Petrou, told the Guardian that it was certain the plane had crashed, but that it was likely “at the bottom of the sea” which would make recovery operations extremely difficult.

“Nothing can be excluded. An explosion could be a possibility, but then so could damage to the fuselage,” he said.
- See more at: http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/confusion-over-egyptair-crash-mounts-search-operations-intensify-825521160#sthash.Xt3GlxU6.dpuf

Offline ExFreeper

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Re: EgyptAir Flight Disappears From Radar
« Reply #41 on: May 20, 2016, 02:57:32 pm »
Latest Update

Egypt finds belongings, debris from plane crash at sea

Reuters - By Ahmed Aboulenein - May 20, 2016

The Egyptian navy said on Friday it had found the personal belongings of passengers and other debris floating in the Mediterranean, confirmation that an EgyptAir jet had plunged into the sea with 66 people on board.

The military said it had found the debris about 290 km (180 miles) north of the port city of Alexandria and was searching for the plane’s black box flight recorders...

Friday’s announcement that debris had been found followed earlier confusion about whether wreckage had been located. Greek searchers found some material on Thursday, but the airline later said this was not from its plane.

A European satellite spotted a 2 km-long oil slick in the Mediterranean, about 40 km southeast of the aircraft’s last position, the European Space Agency said...

Khaled al-Gameel, head of crew at EgyptAir, said the pilot, Mahamed Saeed Ali Shouqair, had 15 years’ experience and was in charge of training and mentoring younger pilots.

“He comes from a pilot family; his uncle was a high ranking pilot at EgyptAir and his cousin is also a pilot,” Gameel said. “He was very popular and was known for taking it upon himself to settle disputes any two colleagues were having.”...

http://www.oann.com/egyptair-says-flight-from-paris-to-cairo-missing/

The aircraft involved, registered under SU-GCC was MSN (Manufacturer Serial Number) 2088 delivered to Egyptair from the production line in November 2003. The aircraft had accumulated approximately 48,000 flight hours. It was powered by IAE engines.

https://www.facebook.com/airbus/?fref=nf

"If an aircraft breaks up at flight/cruise altitude (in this case FL370), for whatever cause, and assuming this is what may have happened, inherent inertial forces and of course drag opposing the inertial direction and gravity acting in the vertical direction and external forces (i.e. winds aloft) act on an (unpowered) aircraft (or aircraft debris).

It appears that MSR804 was following a flight path including overflying RAPOS WP and KUMBI WP (reported to be the approximate last radar position of MSR804 at around 0030Z). Therefore looking at the flight path direction and coordinates being reported for the last radar contact position at approximately KUMBI WP and the reported coordinates for the found/located ocean debris, it appears logical that the aircraft (or aircraft debris if truly an inflight breakup) continued on a forward inertial path while being displaced E by winds aloft (at the last position time, being roughly 280 Deg. True at 75 Knots at FL370 at both HECA and LGKP) while descending.

At a reported approximately 530 NM/Hr ground speed at FL370 at the time of lost radar contact the aircraft (or debris) would have been moving over the ground (ocean) at around 9 NM/ minute and then (unpowered) decelerating while descending, and along with the reported winds aloft acting almost directly from the West displacing the debris to the East. IMO the ocean debris location found around 60 NM Left of the course at the reported last radar position seems logical relative to a potential inflight breakup (from whatever cause) at FL370."

3000 or more meters in that area...



Quote
How can we explain the registration SUGBZ and not SUGCC on this list?

Was the plane swapped at the last moment? Perhaps with one from the hangar, with maintenance issues? SU-GBZ is a 320, so this rules out my initial fear that a 737 crew was piloting a 320... (earlier in the thread, it was mentioned that the flight was usually operated with a 737).





http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/read.main/6699699#246





« Last Edit: May 20, 2016, 06:38:45 pm by ExFreeper »
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Offline ExFreeper

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Re: EgyptAir Flight Disappears From Radar
« Reply #42 on: May 20, 2016, 06:39:36 pm »
ACARS (Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System) Messages (SU-GCC):

00:26Z 3044 ANTI ICE R WINDOW
00:26Z 561200 R SLIDING WINDOW SENSOR
00:26Z 2600 SMOKE LAVATORY SMOKE
00:27Z 2600 AVIONICS SMOKE
00:28Z 561100 R FIXED WINDOW SENSOR
00:29Z 2200 AUTO FLT FCU 2 FAULT
00:29Z 2700 F/CTL SEC 3 FAULT
no further ACARS messages were received

ACARS Indications are:
1- problem with first officer window heating system
2- problem with first officer sliding window sensor
3- smoke detected in the lavatory and probably will the one just behind the cockpit
4- avionics smoke detected which is beneath the cockpit
5- fault with the sensor of the first officer front fixed window
6- flight control unit FCU 2 fault, the unit to used all flight trajectory short term manual orders
7- SEC 3 the Spoiler Elevator Computer number 3 fault, as its name implies controls part of the spoilers and is aback up for elevator control.

MS804 Synopsis
==============

Background

1. 66 people were on board. None of the people on the manifest were on a terrorism watchlist.
2. Leaked passenger list: According to a leaked passenger list, only very few of the passengers have a non-Arabic name. A leaked passenger list can be found on a anti-Muslim website http://www.shoebat.com
2.1 Strangely, the plane mentioned on the leaked crew list is SU-GBZ, but at least two confirmed victims (among them, French photographer Pascal Hess) do appear on the passenger list.
2. Earlier that day, SU-GCC flew to Eritrea and Tunis, returning to CAI each time.
3. According to BBC, no terrorist organization has credibly claimed responsibility.

Flight History
--------------
1. Flight entered Athens FIR at 2:24 AM. Last successful communication was at 2:48, the flight was cleared to the exit of Athens FIR. "The pilot was jocund and thanked in Greek."
1.1 Several ACARS messages beginning at 3:26 AM:
00:26Z 3044 ANTI ICE R WINDOW
00:26Z 561200 R SLIDING WINDOW SENSOR
00:26Z 2600 SMOKE LAVATORY SMOKE
2. At 3:27, Athens ACC tried to communicate with the flight, to hand it over to the Cairo FIR. Repetitive calls, also on the emergency frequency, went without any response. At the same time, 0:27Z, there was the "2600 AVIONICS SMOKE ACARS" message.
2.1 ACARS message:
00:28Z 561100 R FIXED WINDOW SENSOR
3. The flight passed the FIR boundary at 3:29 AM. At the same time, these ACARS messages were sent:
00:29Z 2200 AUTO FLT FCU 2 FAULT
00:29Z 2700 F/CTL SEC 3 FAULT
After those, no more ACARS messages were received.
At 3:29:40 AM, the flight was lost from ATC radar, almost 7 nm southeast of KUMBI (KUMBI lies on the FIR boundary). The Greek Air Force was called, they were unable to track the plane with their radars (as it had already crashed at this time).
4. The aircraft stayed at FL370, at least when the transponder was still working.
5. Supposedly, the Greek Air Force's primary radars did record the plane's flight. "It turned 90 degrees left and then a 360-degree turn toward the right, dropping from 38,000 to 15,000 feet and then it was lost at about 10,000 feet." (Paul Kammenos, Greek minister of defense)

Search
------
1. First debris spotted at around noon of May 20th.
2. Possible oil slick photographed by the European Space Agency's Sentinel satellite.

--------------

Thanks to Flying Turtle for his work on the chronology of events.

I have three remarks to make:

1/- It's still very early news and, as usual, information arrives in bits and pieces, very often very contradictory. There isn't a reliable source of news except specialised media and officials... and even then... 

2/- Theories and assumptions are fine... provided they have some logical basis :
- " I think this happened (....x....) because of this info..." The usual wild guesses about fuel starvation and stall / spin, for the time being have absolutely no basis whatsoever.

3/- Accident investigations are a fine balance between causes and effects , appearances and realities, technical and human failures, all those in a very dynamic environment : weather, air traffic...
Here, for instance we have two sets of apparent facts :

A/- A turn, followed by a rapid descent, another turn ion the opposite direction, a steeper descent until a target signal loss around 15 000 feet.

B/- A set of ACARS messages which need to be qualified:

1/- ANTI ICE RIGHT WINDOW / RIGHT SLIDING WINDOW SENSOR / RIGHT FIXED WINDOW SENSOR : Of these, only the first one is displayed to the crew, indicating a fault in the RHS window heating : the panes are no longer heated.

2/- SMOKE LAVATORY SMOKE / AVIONICS SMOKE . Onlyt the Lav smoke would trigger an alarm, the avionionics smoke is just a level 2 caution.  On this aspect one should be really basic about the info / warning / advisory : *smoke* means the detectors and the system are seeing smoke in the affected compartment : It doesn't mean a fire had started there.  On this fire and smoke protection system, one has to say that there is no sensor (that I know of ) and no indication / warning of a COCKPIT SMOKE, for obvious reasons : there are two - or more - pairs of eyes and nostrils in that flight deck.

3/- AUTO FLIGHT : FCU 2 FAULT / FLIGHT CONTROLS : SEC 3 FAULT . Only the second triggers a caution. FCU 2 Fault means that , had the FO been the PF, A/P #2 would have disconnected, causing even more disorder on the flight deck. Otherwise, it has no real impact on the flight conduct.

Now, with all the above in mind, what can we seriously say ?

- The absence of a MAYDAY call seems to point toward a very sudden event that became rapidly unmanageable : IMHO the only event that could have happened was a fire. A violent fire which started either in the avionics bay or in the cockpit.

The fire quickly destroyed most of the electronics, which is the reason there is no more ACARS messages - that we know of - just three minutes after the events initiation at 00:26 Z.
What caused the fire ? culprits abound : shorts / laptop batteries / cigarette.... or plain sabotage or bomb...

Wherever the fire started, the cockpit was one of the most affected volumes on that aircraft ; it must have been a very uncomfortable place to be in...

Pihero


At the moment, it looks like a Sub-Bus of the DC-Bus 2 system that's affected. I think this is more of a fire in avionics bay, although I wouldn't rule out an actual cockpit fire...

mandalla499

Source:  airliners.net


« Last Edit: May 21, 2016, 12:43:21 pm by ExFreeper »
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Offline ExFreeper

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Re: EgyptAir Flight Disappears From Radar
« Reply #43 on: May 21, 2016, 01:47:31 pm »

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tOnMKPX31MQ



Egypt officials claim to locate EgyptAir black boxes

 CBS/AP May 21, 2016, 6:16 AM

Search crews located the data recorders for EgyptAir Flight 804 close to an area where human remains and debris from the crashed flight have been found, Egyptian government sources confirmed to CBS News on Saturday.

Also Saturday, the French air accident investigation agency said smoke was detected in multiple places on the flight moments before it plummeted into the Mediterranean, but the cause of the crash that killed all 66 on board remains unclear.

On Friday, sources told CBS News that information was transmitted from the flight indicating that smoke was detected on the plane before it crashed.

According to the sources, the information indicates smoke was coming from one of the engines. The data was transmitted through the Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System, which sends snapshots of engine performance throughout the flight...

The spokesman's Facebook page later posted a brief video that showed more debris, including what appeared to be a piece of blue carpet, seat belts, a shoe and what looked like a woman's white handbag. The short clip opened with aerial footage of an unidentified navy ship followed by a speed boat with five service members aboard heading toward floating debris.

gyptian authorities said they believe terrorism is a more likely explanation than equipment failure, and some aviation experts have said the erratic flight suggests a bomb blast or a struggle in the cockpit. But so far no hard evidence has emerged.

No militant group has claimed to have brought down the aircraft. That is a contrast to the downing of a Russian jet in October over Egypt's Sinai Peninsula that killed all 224 on board. In that case, the Sinai branch of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, or ISIS, issued a claim of responsibility within hours. On Friday, ISIS issued a statement on clashes with the Egyptian military in Sinai, but said nothing about the plane crash.

Three European security officials said on Friday that the passenger manifest for Flight 804 contained no names on terrorism watch lists. The officials spoke to the AP on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the investigation. The manifest was leaked online and has not been verified by the airline.

Further checks are being conducted on relatives of the passengers.

French aviation investigators have begun to check and question all baggage handlers, maintenance workers, gate agents and other ground crew members at Charles de Gaulle Airport who had a direct or indirect link to the plane before it took off, according to a French judicial official. The official was not authorized to discuss the investigation and spoke to the AP on condition of anonymity.

Whatever caused the aircraft to crash, the tragedy will most likely deepen Egypt's difficult predicament as it struggles to revive a battered economy and contain an increasingly resilient insurgency by Islamic militants...



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QRZlfCIb8qE





Quote
Quoting mandala499:
it looks like a Sub-Bus of the DC-Bus 2 system that's affected. I think this is more of a fire in avionics bay,

As usual, Buddy, you have a knack for complexities... And here, we have one which could go very far.

1/- Electrical fire in the Avionics Bay:

What is galling is that the right window(s) anti-icing is ruled by the WHC - window heating computer - which is in turn powered by DC BUS 2. That bus seems to be rather involved : SEC 3 and FCU 2 are amongst the systems it furnishes power to.

There now comes the big problem : DC BUS 2 powers a lot more systems and as a matter of fact, one is left with FAC 1 ELAC 1 and SEC 1... The F/O has lost his static sensor ---> needs to switch to ADR 3... One's lost three spoilers per side... and those haven't been ACARS transmitted.

The only explanation that makes sense is a fire, are we to consider that its progression was very fast and it destroyed basically most of the communications capability of the flight in less than four minutes.

On that subject, we have to consider that the detected smoke should have triggered a QRH procedure, here the AVIONICS SMOKE... and guess what ? the procedure could lead to an ELEC EMER CONFIG situation and com-wise, one is left with only VHF1... no bloody ACARS possible.

2/- Fire in the cockpit:

I'm afraid we have to consider the possibility of an event similar to the
B-777 Nefertiti on ground at Cairo.

What is of note is that the wires to the sliding window sensors / heaters run very close to the pilots' O2 masks stowage, and we have basically a continuous table running parallel to the fuselage skin from the instrument panel to the circuit breakers boards behind the pilots, on which to store a book, a laptop...etc... the O2 mask hose would add a lot to a fire in this area.

Then, the already polluted cockpit air would go to the avionics bay, for cooling, then be evacuated through the extract duct / fan where it would be scanned for particles. Then, and only then we would have a "Smoke" warning.

Pihero



Additional Reference Material:

Smartcockpit Docs

Airbus Training Notes

Flightcrew Training Manual

AF Flight 447 – ACARS Messages Decoded (For comparison purposes only)



« Last Edit: May 21, 2016, 10:19:51 pm by ExFreeper »
"A major source of objection to a free economy is precisely that it gives people what they want instead of what a particular group thinks they ought to want. Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself." - Milton Friedman

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Re: EgyptAir Flight Disappears From Radar
« Reply #44 on: May 21, 2016, 02:45:29 pm »
According to the sources, the information indicates smoke was coming from one of the engines. The data was transmitted through the Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System, which sends snapshots of engine performance throughout the flight...

Not sure how CBS/AP came to this conclusion since the ACARS messages did not include any engine trouble? If true, then EgyptAir probably subscribed to real time engine monitoring.
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Re: EgyptAir Flight Disappears From Radar
« Reply #45 on: May 21, 2016, 11:35:27 pm »
http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/EgyptAir-black-boxes-located/2016/05/21/id/730021/




Newsmax
Report: EgyptAir Black Boxes Located in Mediterranean Sea
Saturday, May 21, 2016 06:11 PM

By: Todd Beamon

The flight-data recorders for EgyptAir Flight 804 have been found near where human remains and other debris from the crashed flight have been located, an Egyptian government source said Saturday.

The "black boxes" — painted bright orange — were approximately located by their pings, and recovery efforts were underway, a U.S. intelligence source told CBS News.

The devices store key flight metrics and sounds from the cockpit that could definitively detail what downed the plane.

Egyptian media, including state-owned media, also reported the same development, CBS reports, though no official confirmation has been released.

In addition, EgyptAir officials would not confirm or deny that the black boxes have been located, according to CBS.

The development comes after French investigators said Saturday that smoke was detected in multiple places on the flight moments before it plummeted into the Mediterranean Sea early Tuesday, but that the cause of the crash that killed all 66 on board remained unclear.

The electronic signals offer a puzzling twist to what may have happened to the flight. Two error messages, the first at 2:26 a.m. local time, suggested there was a fire on board, while later alerts indicated some type of failure in the plane’s electrical equipment.

While similar signals have preceded air accidents in the past, the warnings aren’t associated with a sudden disappearance from radar as occurred with the Airbus A320 jet.

A Malaysian Airlines flight shot down over Ukrainian airspace in July 2014 broke apart so quickly that on-board systems did not have time to send distress messages.

"It’s too long for an explosion and too short for a traditional fire," said John Cox, a former A320 pilot who is president of Safety Operating Systems, a Washington consulting firm. "It says we have more question than we have answers."

Spanning three minutes, the warnings were followed by alerts that fumes were detected by smoke detectors, one in a lavatory and the other in the compartment below the cockpit where the plane’s computers and avionics systems are stored, according to the Aviation Herald.

CNN reported that the time stamps of the alerts match the approximate time the aircraft went missing.

In the case of a mid-flight fire, the pilots would have been expected to radio a distress call and begin attempts to divert, Cox said. No such radio calls came from the EgyptAir plane.

The transmissions, which are automatically sent to ground stations so airlines can monitor whether maintenance is necessary, will probably provide valuable clues once they’re matched up against the plane’s crash-proof flight recorders.

Egypt’s Ministry of Civil Aviation said Saturday that transmissions collected from the plane may have different causes and require further analysis before drawing any conclusions.

"We are looking at all the information that is collected but it is far too early to make a judgment or decision on single source of information," the ministry said in a statement.

Bloomberg News contributed to this report.
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Offline BuckeyeTexan

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Re: EgyptAir Flight Disappears From Radar
« Reply #46 on: May 21, 2016, 11:54:34 pm »
Don't know about the veracity of the report, but a supposed pilot says the ACARS messages could indicate that the right front windows next to the co-pilot were blown out.
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Re: EgyptAir Flight Disappears From Radar
« Reply #47 on: May 21, 2016, 11:59:06 pm »
It's becoming clear that there was no explosion. No bomb.

This is very reminiscent of SwissAir Flight 111 in 1998:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swissair_Flight_111
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Re: EgyptAir Flight Disappears From Radar
« Reply #48 on: May 22, 2016, 03:40:38 am »
Don't know about the veracity of the report, but a supposed pilot says the ACARS messages could indicate that the right front windows next to the co-pilot were blown out.

NO the ACARS msg did not mean the window was blown out.  As I posted in the original/larger thread, this messages mean:  "the panes are no longer heated"
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Re: EgyptAir Flight Disappears From Radar
« Reply #49 on: May 22, 2016, 11:46:58 am »
EgyptAir Was Aware of Threats to Security, Including One Scribbled on Plane
By DECLAN WALSH, NOUR YOUSSEF and KAREEM FAHIM
MAY 21, 2016

CAIRO — In an eerie coincidence, the EgyptAir jetliner that plunged into the Mediterranean on Thursday was once the target of political vandals who wrote in Arabic on its underside, “We will bring this plane down.”

Three EgyptAir security officials said the threatening graffiti, which appeared about two years ago, had been the work of aviation workers at Cairo Airport. Playing on the phonetic similarity between the last two letters in the plane’s registration, SU-GCC, and the surname of Egypt’s president, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, some workers also wrote “traitor” and “murderer.”

The officials, who were interviewed separately and who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the airline’s security procedures because they were not authorized to speak publicly, said the graffiti had been linked to the domestic Egyptian political situation at the time rather than to a militant threat. Similar graffiti against Mr. Sisi, a former general, was scrawled across Cairo after the military ousted the elected president, Mohamed Morsi, in 2013.

Since then, the airline has put into effect a variety of new security measures in response to Egypt’s political turmoil, jihadist violence and other aviation disasters like the crash of a Russian plane that killed 224 people in October. EgyptAir has fired employees for their political leanings, stepped up crew searches and added extra unarmed in-flight security guards. Three such guards died in Thursday’s crash of Flight 804. ...

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