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For many months, David Cameron has wanted to call a Commons vote to authorise air strikes against Isis in Syria. But he has been haunted by two previous Commons dramas: Tony Blair’s ill-fated decision to join the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 and his own spectacular defeat when he wanted to bomb the Assad regime in Syria two years ago, the nadir of his premiership.The two ghosts made Mr Cameron cautious about asking MPs to extend UK bombing of Isis in Iraq to Syria. But in the past two weeks, the stars suddenly aligned – admittedly in horrific circumstances. The Isis bomb on a Russian plane; progress on a Syrian peace in talks in Vienna; the massacre in Paris and an unexpected United Nations Security Council resolution urging action against Isis.But Mr Cameron knew that, after Iraq and Afghanistan and his own misadventure in Libya, he needed to convince sceptical MPs that he had a plan for the aftermath in Syria. After he tried to answer their concerns in a conciliatory Commons statement on 26 November, government whips sensed he had won over about half the 30 Conservative MPs who voted against bombing Syria in 2013. “Paris has changed everything,” said one Tory who rebelled last time and has now swapped sides. But there is still one piece of the jigsaw missing – the Labour Opposition, which sunk Mr Cameron two years ago when Ed Miliband pulled the rug on him. The Prime Minister is not prepared to risk another Commons defeat. His allies insist this is not about his personal reputation, arguing that Britain’s standing in the world remains damaged today by the 2013 retreat. So Mr Cameron wants a clear sign of cross-party support – ideally, at least 50 Labour MPs voting for air strikes, whatever their own party leader decides.“In normal times, Paris and the UN resolution would be a game-changer,” said one Shadow Cabinet member. “But we are not in normal times. Under Jeremy [Corbyn], no one knows what will happen next.”There were ashen faces all round as frontbenchers left a tense 90-minute meeting of the Shadow Cabinet on 26 November. It was never going to agree on how Labour MPs should be whipped because Mr Corbyn had already called another session for 30 November -- in the hope that MPs would consult party members over the weekend and come under pressure to oppose UK bombing.Mr Corbyn wants to whip his MPs to vote against war. But, after Paris, some Labour MPs argue that the party whip should be in favour of military action. The obvious compromise is to have a free vote, allowing the party’s MPs to follow their conscience. Mr Corbyn does not want to concede that, but may have to.Tensions at the top of the party are at their highest since he became leader in September. Hilary Benn, the shadow Foreign Secretary, is no war-monger and played a crucial role in persuading Mr Miliband to oppose action in Syria two years ago. But he made clear that he sees a very strong case for Britain to play its full part this time in a BBC interview after the Shadow Cabinet session. This angered Mr Corbyn, who penned a letter to his MPs on why he opposes bombing. Allies claim his letter was prompted by Mr Benn breaking ranks; friends of Mr Benn insist he spoke out because he knew the Corbyn letter was coming.Such arguments show how Labour has become dysfunctional. It is not going to function unless the leader gives ground to his MPs or the MPs follow the leader. But Syria has only widened the gulf between them. There was always going to be an eruption, and a real prospect of several Shadow Cabinet resignations. Some thought the catalyst would be over whether to renew the Trident nuclear weapons system. Events have brought forward the showdown.On 27 November, four Labour MPs suggested that Mr Corbyn might have to quit. More are bound to follow in this weekend’s newspapers. Many are appalled that his stance will make Labour look like it is does not care about the security of its people. Mr Corbyn insists that bombing Isis in Syria will make Britain even more of a target for terrorism.The danger for Mr Corbyn is that some Labour MPs will use Syria as a stick with which to beat him rather than judge the issue on its merits. Some in the “go with the flow” brigade who were prepared to give him a chance are now joining the Jeremy Out camp.Aides insist Mr Corbyn is not a pacifist. They argue that he is right to think back to 2003 when, as chairman of Stop the War Coalition, he was in close contact with some of the relatives of British servicemen killed in Iraq, who for a while had nowhere else to turn. One Corbyn aide said: “People claimed Blair showed courage by sticking to his guns and bombing. Jeremy is showing courage by not backing a rush to bombing.”So Mr Cameron is left sweating as Labour debates with itself. A free vote for Labour MPs would almost certainly ensure a Commons vote within days – and a majority for air strikes. But the Prime Minister still has questions to answer, not least over what happens next in Syria. Downing Street struggled to explain his claim that a force of 70,000 Syrian moderates could play a crucial role, when most of them are more interested in removing President Assad than Isis. Even some Tories who will support air strikes wonder whether Mr Cameron’s stance stems partly from a desire to “be there” on the world stage.As they make a very difficult judgement, a majority of MPs will probably give Mr Cameron the benefit of the doubt. But he still has work to do to earn it, and MPs are right to be cautious. As one wavering Labour MP put it: “We gave Blair the benefit of the doubt, and we know what happened.”
