You are probably right in that - enough to bet all my mad money anyway.
The problem is, as always, timing. If he messes up early enough, Hillary or Saunders or Slow Joe only have to shift their campaign emphasis slightly to "not Obama" to have a decent chance of winning. Easiest for Saunders, of course and hardest for Slow Joe, but doable.
It'll have to be something domestic though - most Americans (especially LIVs) don't really give a crap about what goes on in another state, never mind another country. Nothing is really on the radar for that.