Author Topic: Oh my: Carson ties Trump in Iowa in new Monmouth poll  (Read 650 times)

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bkepley

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Oh my: Carson ties Trump in Iowa in new Monmouth poll
« on: August 31, 2015, 05:03:35 pm »
Ed Morrissey
Hot Air

Get ready for a new context shift in the Republican presidential sweepstakes. There could be no greater contrast in the GOP primary race than the brash bluster of Donald Trump and the calm, philosophical demeanor of Ben Carson. Both approaches seem to be working, though, as Carson has tied Trump in the latest Monmouth University poll in Iowa:


The Monmouth University Poll of likely Iowa Republican caucusgoers finds Ben Carson and Donald Trump tied for the top spot. This marks the first time since July 26 that a poll in any of the first four nominating states has not shown Trump with a nominal lead. Not surprisingly, given the top two contenders in the poll, most Iowa Republicans prefer someone without a traditional political pedigree. At this early stage, though, the vast majority of voters say their eventual support could go to one of several other candidates in spite of their current preference.

When Iowa Republicans are asked who they would support in their local caucus, Ben Carson (23%) and Donald Trump (23%) tie for the top spot. The next tier of candidates includes Carly Fiorina (10%) and Ted Cruz (9%), followed by Scott Walker (7%), Jeb Bush (5%), John Kasich (4%), Marco Rubio (4%), and Rand Paul (3%). The last two Iowa caucus victors, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum, each garner 2% of the vote. None of the other six candidates included in the poll register more than 1% support.

“These results mark a significant shake-up in the leaderboard from Monmouth’s Iowa poll taken before the first debate,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ. “Carson and, to a lesser extent, Fiorina have surged, while Walker has faded into the background.”

No kidding. Walker’s fade almost exactly matches the Carson surge, in fact. Walker went from 22% and the lead in July to 7% and fifth place in August. Carson had third place with 8% in July and went to 23% and a tie for the lead a month later. Clearly, Iowans have liked what they have seen and heard from Carson so far.

More here: http://hotair.com/archives/2015/08/31/oh-my-carson-ties-trump-in-iowa-in-new-monmouth-poll/
« Last Edit: August 31, 2015, 05:05:16 pm by bkepley »

Offline Free Vulcan

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Re: Oh my: Carson ties Trump in Iowa in new Monmouth poll
« Reply #1 on: August 31, 2015, 05:24:16 pm »
There seems to be a very noticeable Trump/anti-Trump split with the spoils now going to Carson instead of Walker, and the GOPe candidates really sucking wind, while Fiorina, Cruz, and Walker mostly mopping up the other factions of the party.

Most important here is that we've now seen the third shift in the Iowa electorate from Walker to Trump and now Carson pulling alongside. Second most important is the top 3 candidates have no political experience, with fourth place Cruz being a very fresh face on the scene.

If I were Jeb, Kasich, Cristie, or any of the other GOPe favored candidates, I'd be messing my drawers right now.

The only prediction I'll make is that it's going to get alot more interesting before it's over.
« Last Edit: August 31, 2015, 05:24:48 pm by Free Vulcan »
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Offline libertybele

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Re: Oh my: Carson ties Trump in Iowa in new Monmouth poll
« Reply #2 on: August 31, 2015, 05:54:19 pm »
There seems to be a very noticeable Trump/anti-Trump split with the spoils now going to Carson instead of Walker, and the GOPe candidates really sucking wind, while Fiorina, Cruz, and Walker mostly mopping up the other factions of the party.

Most important here is that we've now seen the third shift in the Iowa electorate from Walker to Trump and now Carson pulling alongside. Second most important is the top 3 candidates have no political experience, with fourth place Cruz being a very fresh face on the scene.

If I were Jeb, Kasich, Cristie, or any of the other GOPe favored candidates, I'd be messing my drawers right now.

The only prediction I'll make is that it's going to get alot more interesting before it's over.

Yep...the GOPe I'm sure is taking note and I agree with you that it's going to get a lot more interesting before it's over. Unfortunately, he's only raised about $10 MIL and half of that is reportedly gone.   Will he have enough money for the long haul??  He needs big money donors to keep him going.  Money is where Jeb has a huge advantage over every one but Trump and I was glad to see where recently 3 of his donors have pulled away from him. 
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Live in harmony with one another; do not be haughty, but associate with the lowly, do not claim to be wiser than you are.  Do not repay anyone evil for evil, but take thought for what is noble in the sight of all.  If it is possible, so far as it depends on you, live peaceably with all…do not be overcome by evil, but overcome evil with good.

Offline andy58-in-nh

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Re: Oh my: Carson ties Trump in Iowa in new Monmouth poll
« Reply #3 on: August 31, 2015, 06:02:52 pm »
It seems evident that people clearly desire an outsider.
 
But many of the same people would prefer an outsider who doesn't act like a schmuck.
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Offline NavyCanDo

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Re: Oh my: Carson ties Trump in Iowa in new Monmouth poll
« Reply #4 on: August 31, 2015, 11:23:54 pm »
From the Des Moines Register:

Monday’s poll did show that Mr. Carson is leading Mr. Trump with people who consider themselves to be “very conservative,” with evangelical Christians, and with women.

So why is Trump not leading with those who consider themselves "very conservative"?   Could it be because they can't identify with him? Or do they smell a rat?   
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Re: Oh my: Carson ties Trump in Iowa in new Monmouth poll
« Reply #5 on: August 31, 2015, 11:27:20 pm »
The biggest single item in the Monmouth poll is the fact that 56% of the respondents prefer someone who has never before held public office!

That writes a book folks!
 
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Offline NavyCanDo

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Re: Oh my: Carson ties Trump in Iowa in new Monmouth poll
« Reply #6 on: September 01, 2015, 01:32:26 am »
Carson may be an "outsider" but he understands who the opposition is better than the any senior Republican senator I ever heard.

Carson wrote:   "The Democratic Party is by design, a party of coalitions. The Democrats have cunningly cobbled together a political party that is made up of groups that often have opposing interest"(such as Pro Choice, anti-gun, Black Lives Matter, Gay Marriage, LGBT, NOW, Teachers Unions, Labor Unions, Minimum Wage advocates, Open Borders, Occupy, the list of groups goes on and on.)   "As today’s Democratic  Party see it, individuals are only important as a party of a voting bloc, that can benefit their political objectives. So instead of thinking of Americans as diverse individuals created by God who are each unique in their own right, the Democrats only think of them as a member of some aggrieved group. And each group, a coalition of victims that need the aid and assistance of the Democrat Party. As a party, the Democrats appeal to the basic human instincts of the individual since the fall of Adam – jealously, envy, anger, and greed". which can be found in the foundations in any of the groups mentioned above.
A nation that turns away from prayer will ultimately find itself in desperate need of it. :Jonathan Cahn

Offline Formerly Once-Ler

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Re: Oh my: Carson ties Trump in Iowa in new Monmouth poll
« Reply #7 on: September 01, 2015, 09:13:18 am »
If I were Jeb, Kasich, Cristie, or any of the other GOPe favored candidates, I'd be messing my drawers right now.

The only prediction I'll make is that it's going to get alot more interesting before it's over.
I think the GOP is quite happy with how things are going.  Staunch conservatives have a track record of hopping from one candidate to the next with ferocious rapidity.  Last time around they went to Bachmann, then Perry, then Cain, then Gingrich, then Santorum.  I'll predict it goes Trump, Carson, Fiorina, Cruz, Walker, Rubio, oh no only Bush is left.  Let the conservative support roller coaster begin. 

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