Author Topic: Why Trump Truimphant Makes No Difference  (Read 2612 times)

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Offline EC

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Why Trump Truimphant Makes No Difference
« on: July 31, 2015, 04:01:27 am »
I'll admit it up front - I don't like Trump. I consider him a con artist - charming in his way, sure, but out for number one at all costs and damn the collateral damage. Having said that, there is no denying he is popular right now. Laz pulled an analysis of this: The New Battle Lines: Elitists Vs. Us, which I think is spot on, so read it (after this, of course!).

Unfortunately, the conclusion is, well, flawed.

It assumes that who is in the White House matters. They don't and have not now for nearly 100 years.

Being President has it's perks. You are the face of the country to the rest of the world, your power (provided you ignore such pesky things as the Law and the Constitution) is immense and you have not only the right but the obligation to surround yourself in government with people you feel comfortable with and appoint judges to the Courts who you see eye to eye with. Seems like a pretty sweet gig, doesn't it?
It must have been a revelation to Obama the day he sat himself down behind the big desk, got out his little pen and his little phone and found out the hard way that his whole "Hope and Change" schtick should more accurately have been called "Hopeless to Make Changes."

To take a small diversion into biology, consider any living thing. Pick anything at all - a flower, a sea slug, an E. coli bacterium. Being as this is the internet, you probably picked a cat, so here is a picture for you to consider:

All living things have attributes in common: they eat, grow, breed, have a will to survive. They also obey a fairly unknown universal law - the law of least effort. Any living thing will use the minimum effort needed to achieve it's goals. Cave fish don't bother growing eyes because they'd be a waste of energy. Male bees detach their penises after a successful mating to block other males access and ensure their energy hasn't been wasted. Cats domesticated humans to save them the bother of growing opposable thumbs. You get the idea.

Organisations follow the same laws as living organisms. They eat tax money. They expand constantly. They will sometimes pod off a sub-agency. They are virtually immortal. And they really, really, really put the Law of Least Effort at the core of their existence.

So, say Mr. Trump gets swept in to the Oval Office on a tide of pissed off voters and bad jokes about his hair. His first task is to decapitate the various agencies the Executive Branch is ostensibly in charge of and replace said heads with ones more to his liking. He'll expect results and rapidly, as he is not exactly renowned for his patience. Nothing will change. Sure, new policies will come into effect, edicts will be given, motivational speakers or experts on whatever management style is flavor of the week will see an upturn in business - and all those changes, unless they make the life of the agency as an organism easier, will be ignored until they die a quiet and lonely death.

The only way to make any fundamental change in government is to completely destroy the existing apparatus and build afresh using new people.

Hey - you guys did it once, a couple hundred years back.

Up for it again?


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« Last Edit: July 31, 2015, 05:49:55 am by EC »
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Offline aligncare

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Re: Why Trump Truimphant Makes No Difference
« Reply #1 on: July 31, 2015, 04:21:09 am »
Nice piece EC. I said as much elsewhere. Time to clean house. Or, to follow your thought, time to rebuild. Because the relentless "renovations" by successive – and temporary, I might add – congresses and administrations have built us an ugly house, ill suited to its original design.
« Last Edit: August 01, 2015, 12:24:43 pm by aligncare »

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Re: Why Trump Truimphant Makes No Difference
« Reply #2 on: July 31, 2015, 01:54:07 pm »
I don't agree with everything in your essay but I certainly DO agree that it's time to clean house in Washington!
"I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo.

"So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us."
- J. R. R. Tolkien

Offline Relic

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Re: Why Trump Truimphant Makes No Difference
« Reply #3 on: July 31, 2015, 02:49:11 pm »
I hate that I agree with you EC. There is no hope at the moment. Why? Because Juvenal's bread and circuses, (cellphones and retail stores), are being employed expertly in America. What was done 200 years ago would be impossible today. The populace is passive, distracted, and for the most part, content.

You and Laz come to the same conclusion from different approaches. Laz is a bit more conspiratorial, you more pragmatic. I think it's some of both. I think the money comes from the same sources, so that the marching orders to each party are much the same. In addition, the bureaucratic mechanisms don't change. Replace the head of any department, and that person is unlikely to overcome the inertia of lower level career bureaucrats.

I believe the current trajectory of the United States is unsustainable. I think you and Laz would agree with that. That will be the genesis of revolution. Contented people don't revolt. As our socialist paradise takes the form of all the socialist paradise attempts before us, we will begin to see changes in the populace. Americans 40 and under have, in general, been indoctrinated and not taught to think critically. Those people will accept the explanations that the deterioration of their living standard is a "new normal" and something they deserve for all the privilege this country has exercised and abused in the past.

But, young Americans will begin to question the state, the indoctrination, and why they have to live in such crappy conditions, when not so long ago, their grandparents had so much opportunity. A declining America will crash into new generations, unwilling to accept the propaganda without question. There is where the reformation begins. I'd like to be around long enough to see it happen.

Offline massadvj

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Re: Why Trump Truimphant Makes No Difference
« Reply #4 on: July 31, 2015, 05:15:13 pm »
I think if any man can instill some life and change into government, it might be Trump.  This is not an endorsement, mind you.  But being a property developer on the scale that Trump has done it requires massive logistical hurdles to overcome, combined with instilling in everyone who works for him a sense that "no" is never an acceptable answer.  Hell, Donald Trump managed to build a golf resort on the most pristine stretch of coastal sand dunes in the UK, on a piece of property no other developer wanted any part of, in the face of huge resistance from environmentalists.  He did it concurrently with developing several other properties around the world.  Unlike the current occupant of the oval office, he has a mind capable of multi-tasking on a grand scale, and comprehending the inter-relationships between things.

He is not a buffoon by any means.  If he seriously put his mind to it, I believe he could be an effective president who cut through the natural inclination of government to become lethargic.  Not that I support him.  I don't.  But I am going to stop making the mistake of underestimating him.

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Re: Why Trump Truimphant Makes No Difference
« Reply #5 on: July 31, 2015, 05:20:27 pm »
I think if any man can instill some life and change into government, it might be Trump.  This is not an endorsement, mind you.  But being a property developer on the scale that Trump has done it requires massive logistical hurdles to overcome, combined with instilling in everyone who works for him a sense that "no" is never an acceptable answer.  Hell, Donald Trump managed to build a golf resort on the most pristine stretch of coastal sand dunes in the UK, on a piece of property no other developer wanted any part of, in the face of huge resistance from environmentalists.  He did it concurrently with developing several other properties around the world.  Unlike the current occupant of the oval office, he has a mind capable of multi-tasking on a grand scale, and comprehending the inter-relationships between things.

He is not a buffoon by any means.  If he seriously put his mind to it, I believe he could be an effective president who cut through the natural inclination of government to become lethargic.  Not that I support him.  I don't.  But I am going to stop making the mistake of underestimating him.

"I want to move 'em out, and we're going to move 'em back in and let them be legal," he told CNN

What is it called when your expectations don't jibe with reality?  Cognitive dissonance?  I keep hearing what a smart guy then I see him on TV.


Offline truth_seeker

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Re: Why Trump Truimphant Makes No Difference
« Reply #6 on: July 31, 2015, 06:06:41 pm »
I remember during the Reagan era, even somewhat before he was elected. In about 1976 California passed Prop 13, the so called Jarvis-Gann bill.

My father knew Jarvis, a successful businessman, in his later years. Not a career politician.

He put this effort forth, as the only way to restrict the growth in the size and cost of government; limit the money coming in.

A President or Governor can only do so much, for most of the government is made up of career administrators. In one or two terms, they cannot be replaced, due to laws already in place.

So the various departments tend to resist change, all the while spending money on their own agendas, whether it is defense, environment, etc.

A President has a certain number of political appointments at the top. That is all. It then becomes the task of those he can appoint, to reform the career department below them. Most do not make much impact.

Reagan did quite a lot, but nothing compared to what some expected him to do. He was succeeded by a more moderate leader, and later GW Bush, also moderate on spending.

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Online Bigun

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Re: Why Trump Truimphant Makes No Difference
« Reply #7 on: July 31, 2015, 06:17:54 pm »
I remember during the Reagan era, even somewhat before he was elected. In about 1976 California passed Prop 13, the so called Jarvis-Gann bill.

My father knew Jarvis, a successful businessman, in his later years. Not a career politician.

He put this effort forth, as the only way to restrict the growth in the size and cost of government; limit the money coming in.

A President or Governor can only do so much, for most of the government is made up of career administrators. In one or two terms, they cannot be replaced, due to laws already in place.

So the various departments tend to resist change, all the while spending money on their own agendas, whether it is defense, environment, etc.

A President has a certain number of political appointments at the top. That is all. It then becomes the task of those he can appoint, to reform the career department below them. Most do not make much impact.

Reagan did quite a lot, but nothing compared to what some expected him to do. He was succeeded by a more moderate leader, and later GW Bush, also moderate on spending.

You have correctly identified the single greatest problem we have in Washington and it is NOT any elected office holder. It is entrenched career bureaucrats and until a way is found to deal with them nothing much is going to change!

Not the first time this has been brought up on this forum either.

 
"I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo.

"So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us."
- J. R. R. Tolkien

Offline massadvj

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Re: Why Trump Truimphant Makes No Difference
« Reply #8 on: July 31, 2015, 08:19:39 pm »
I remember during the Reagan era, even somewhat before he was elected. In about 1976 California passed Prop 13, the so called Jarvis-Gann bill.

My father knew Jarvis, a successful businessman, in his later years. Not a career politician.

He put this effort forth, as the only way to restrict the growth in the size and cost of government; limit the money coming in.

A President or Governor can only do so much, for most of the government is made up of career administrators. In one or two terms, they cannot be replaced, due to laws already in place.

So the various departments tend to resist change, all the while spending money on their own agendas, whether it is defense, environment, etc.

A President has a certain number of political appointments at the top. That is all. It then becomes the task of those he can appoint, to reform the career department below them. Most do not make much impact.

Reagan did quite a lot, but nothing compared to what some expected him to do. He was succeeded by a more moderate leader, and later GW Bush, also moderate on spending.

Trump could turn the government into a big game of "Cabinet Apprentice."  He could stage contests and have cameras follow his cabinet appointees around as they implement plans.  Then, each week fire  the worst one.  I can't wait to see how Dennis Rodman does as Defense Secretary. 

Offline GourmetDan

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Re: Why Trump Truimphant Makes No Difference
« Reply #9 on: July 31, 2015, 09:03:03 pm »
I can't wait to see how Dennis Rodman does as Defense Secretary.

I believe that his experience better qualifies him for Secretary of State...    :silly:


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Offline EdinVA

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Re: Why Trump Truimphant Makes No Difference
« Reply #10 on: July 31, 2015, 10:32:05 pm »
EC, need a little help... what does "pod off a sub-agency" mean?
Male bees detach their penises after a successful mating - How in the world do you know this? :)

You are correct.  We have to go agency by agency, eliminate the agency and if we really really really need that agency, layout the agency charter/mission then an organization to support that mission and ONLY that mission, then open the positions up for competition.

You may be correct about trump, time will tell, but I can guarantee that the other candidates will simply rubber stamp the status quo and nothing will change.
« Last Edit: July 31, 2015, 10:36:40 pm by EdinVA »

Offline alicewonders

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Re: Why Trump Truimphant Makes No Difference
« Reply #11 on: August 01, 2015, 01:49:57 am »
Just playing the story-line out that Trump is elected president.  It might take him a bit to see how immobile bureaucracy really is, but I think he might - more than any of the other more "conventional" candidates running - he might, be more apt to think outside of the box in coming up with ways to circumvent the status quo.  It might be a refreshing thing to watch!

As far as him not being specific in how he plans to do these things - I don't think that is the way he operates.  He probably doesn't micro-manage his business ventures either.  I do think the current situation demands that we try something radically different than we're doing now - putting the same old bureaucrats in charge of these static agencies and expecting change.  I think it could be quite exciting!  Of course, it will never happen - the powers that be will never let it.

But the dream is nice to think about.

We definitely need to clean house, hell - we need to demolish the house!  As ac said up-thread, we've built a very ugly house and I don't think it can be saved. 

 :doa:

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