What If There Is No Autism Epidemic?

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What If There Is No Autism Epidemic?
Russell Saunders
Daily Beast

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s March 2014 report showing a 30 percent rise in autism spectrum disorders (ASDs) over the span of a few years triggered widespread concern over one simple question: what is the cause?

A new study in the BMJ suggests the answer may have less do with the actual number of autistic children and more with the nature of how we diagnose them.

Despite an apparent rise in ASD diagnoses, the Swedish researchers found less direct evidence of a rise in the actual number of patients with symptoms of these disorders. To investigate this discrepancy, they used two different sets of data—both originating in Sweden. The first was part of a comprehensive study that included nearly 20,000 children, all twins, born in that country over a span of 10 years. The second came from a national patient register, which they used to look for diagnosis codes typically associated with ASDs.

Their results poke holes in the belief that we are in the midst of an “autism epidemic.” When parents were contacted directly and asked about symptoms associated with autism, the number of children who met the cutoff for an ASD remained stable—for the 10-year period under investigation. Over that same period, the number of diagnoses of ASDs in the register (data based on an alphanumeric code given to your provider) increased steadily.

Looking at this data, the authors conclude that something other than an actual increase in the number of children showing signs of autism is responsible for the increased prevalence of the diagnosis. The correct explanation may, at least in part, be related to something other than the actual number of autistic children at all.

A study of Danish children reported similar conclusions earlier this year, which did little to quell anxiety surrounding the source of the rise. As is so often the case, some were quick to blame vaccines, despite the connection between vaccinations and autism having been long debunked. ...

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