Author Topic: I don't see Jeb Bush winning  (Read 4633 times)

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Offline Politics4us

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I don't see Jeb Bush winning
« on: February 28, 2015, 11:48:59 pm »
I know George W. Bush was able to win with fundraising early, but there wasn't the Tea Party movement then. If Jeb is able to win through the donors, then we're finished as a country.

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Re: I don't see Jeb Bush winning
« Reply #1 on: February 28, 2015, 11:54:34 pm »
I know George W. Bush was able to win with fundraising early, but there wasn't the Tea Party movement then. If Jeb is able to win through the donors, then we're finished as a country.

He can raise all the money he wants that doesn't mean people will vote for him...he finished 5th today at CPAC straw poll....Paul, Walker, Cruz, Carson...and then Jeb...hopefully we can knock him out in the primaries
« Last Edit: February 28, 2015, 11:55:02 pm by mystery-ak »
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Offline jmyrlefuller

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Re: I don't see Jeb Bush winning
« Reply #2 on: March 01, 2015, 03:37:17 am »
He can raise all the money he wants that doesn't mean people will vote for him...he finished 5th today at CPAC straw poll....Paul, Walker, Cruz, Carson...and then Jeb...hopefully we can knock him out in the primaries
The primaries will be the test.

Whoever serves as the standard-bearer against Jeb (I'll assume for the sake of argument it's Walker) will have to win over Iowa first. There's an evangelical vein in that state that will go for a Jesus-firster like Huckabee by default.

New Hampshire always goes for the establishment, so Jeb will probably win there. (That's why the party has never seriously penalized the state for basing its primary date ahead of all the others, creating the first half of what could end up an infinite loop.)

South Carolina—if Lindsey Graham follows through on his One State Campaign, this could get interesting. Of course, the open primary in that state could easily mangle things up.

Jeb will be banking on the Jesus-firsters in Iowa and open primary “Operation Chaos” style voting in South Carolina to cut off the conservative opposition. It's how McCain won in 2008 and Romney used a similar strategy in 2012.

If Walker or anyone else wants to win, they will NEED to make a convincing win in Iowa and at least be competitive in New Hampshire and South Carolina.
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Offline Politics4us

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Re: I don't see Jeb Bush winning
« Reply #3 on: March 01, 2015, 12:27:46 pm »
Buchanan won New Hampshire in 1996.

Offline jmyrlefuller

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Re: I don't see Jeb Bush winning
« Reply #4 on: March 01, 2015, 10:42:06 pm »
Buchanan won New Hampshire in 1996.
almost* always (and OK, I think McCain may have at least come close in 2000, too, but still, my point stands. NH is generally very friendly to the establishment. They voted Hillary in the '08 Dem primary.)
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Offline truth_seeker

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Re: I don't see Jeb Bush winning
« Reply #5 on: March 01, 2015, 10:57:31 pm »
I know George W. Bush was able to win with fundraising early, but there wasn't the Tea Party movement then. If Jeb is able to win through the donors, then we're finished as a country.
Which of his stated policy positions, and accomplishment, do you oppose?
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Offline Politics4us

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Re: I don't see Jeb Bush winning
« Reply #6 on: March 02, 2015, 03:06:37 am »
Which of his stated policy positions, and accomplishment, do you oppose?

Amnesty and his 2014 CPAC speech. He gave Hillary Clinton a medal.

Offline truth_seeker

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Re: I don't see Jeb Bush winning
« Reply #7 on: March 02, 2015, 05:31:45 am »
Amnesty and his 2014 CPAC speech. He gave Hillary Clinton a medal.
Anything from his two tenure as Governor of our 3rd most populous state?
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Offline Luis Gonzalez

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Re: I don't see Jeb Bush winning
« Reply #8 on: March 02, 2015, 05:38:36 am »
Q #1: Does anyone know who holds the record for most CPAC straw poll wins?

Q $2: How many CPAC winners have gone on to win the Presidency since the conference was founded in 1973?
« Last Edit: March 02, 2015, 05:41:13 am by Luis Gonzalez »
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Offline Luis Gonzalez

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Re: I don't see Jeb Bush winning
« Reply #9 on: March 02, 2015, 05:49:39 am »
Q #1: Does anyone know who holds the record for most CPAC straw poll wins?

Q $2: How many CPAC winners have gone on to win the Presidency since the conference was founded in 1973?

I'll answer the questions myself, in reverse order:

#2 - Reagan and GWB

#1 - Mitt Romney with four wins: 2007, 2008, 2009, 2012

Which is why I laugh every time conservatives keep claiming that if the GOP runs another RINO like Romney, they will lose again.
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Offline Politics4us

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Re: I don't see Jeb Bush winning
« Reply #10 on: March 03, 2015, 12:44:52 am »
Anything from his two tenure as Governor of our 3rd most populous state?

Being a govern isn't the same as being president. Who cares that it's the third most populous state? Would you want Mayor De Blasio as president, because he's mayor of a large population?

Offline Luis Gonzalez

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Re: I don't see Jeb Bush winning
« Reply #11 on: March 03, 2015, 03:36:50 am »
Being a govern isn't the same as being president. Who cares that it's the third most populous state? Would you want Mayor De Blasio as president, because he's mayor of a large population?

Being a Senator is way less "isn't the same" as being President.

Should we now look toward someone with more experience at actually RUNNING things than at someone with no experience?

P.S. The de Blasio thing is about as absurd a stablemen as anyone could possibly make.

Progressives would argue that de Blasio would make a great President based on his experience as Mayor of the largest city in the US. But no one here would agree.

Hint... we're not progressives here.
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Offline truth_seeker

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Re: I don't see Jeb Bush winning
« Reply #12 on: March 03, 2015, 04:49:47 am »
Being a govern isn't the same as being president. Who cares that it's the third most populous state? Would you want Mayor De Blasio as president, because he's mayor of a large population?

You didn't cite anything from Jeb Bush's 8 years as Governor that you oppose. That was the question.

I looked at Real Clear Politics recent polls, and the frontrunners are two Governors; namely Walker and Bush.

« Last Edit: March 03, 2015, 04:57:32 am by truth_seeker »
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Offline Politics4us

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Re: I don't see Jeb Bush winning
« Reply #13 on: March 05, 2015, 02:35:49 am »
You didn't cite anything from Jeb Bush's 8 years as Governor that you oppose. That was the question.

I looked at Real Clear Politics recent polls, and the frontrunners are two Governors; namely Walker and Bush.

He supports CORE and did nothing to fight illegal immigration at the state level. You didn't mention if De Blasio should be president, because he is mayor of a large population as you said Jeb should is.
« Last Edit: March 05, 2015, 02:36:42 am by Politics4us »

Offline Politics4us

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Re: I don't see Jeb Bush winning
« Reply #14 on: March 05, 2015, 02:38:10 am »
Being a Senator is way less "isn't the same" as being President.

Should we now look toward someone with more experience at actually RUNNING things than at someone with no experience?

P.S. The de Blasio thing is about as absurd a stablemen as anyone could possibly make.

Progressives would argue that de Blasio would make a great President based on his experience as Mayor of the largest city in the US. But no one here would agree.

Hint... we're not progressives here.

I mentioned De Blasio, because seeker said that Jeb was governor of the 3rd most populous state. As far as senators being different, I was responding to seeker only focusing on Jeb's positions at the state level.

Offline Luis Gonzalez

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Re: I don't see Jeb Bush winning
« Reply #15 on: March 05, 2015, 03:57:05 am »
He supports CORE and did nothing to fight illegal immigration at the state level. You didn't mention if De Blasio should be president, because he is mayor of a large population as you said Jeb should is.

"Those are my principles, and if you don't like them... well, i have others." - Groucho Marx

Offline Dexter

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Re: I don't see Jeb Bush winning
« Reply #16 on: March 06, 2015, 07:39:58 pm »
You didn't cite anything from Jeb Bush's 8 years as Governor that you oppose. That was the question.

I looked at Real Clear Politics recent polls, and the frontrunners are two Governors; namely Walker and Bush.

As a native Floridian I will say that Jeb Bush was a very okay governor.
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Offline truth_seeker

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Re: I don't see Jeb Bush winning
« Reply #17 on: March 06, 2015, 08:33:12 pm »
As a native Floridian I will say that Jeb Bush was a very okay governor.
I have seen versions of his record, which have accomplishments that would be cheered on by conservatives, in a different age.

Balanced and surplus budgets. Taxes cut. School choice. Tough on crime.

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Offline Dexter

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Re: I don't see Jeb Bush winning
« Reply #18 on: March 06, 2015, 08:45:11 pm »
I have seen versions of his record, which have accomplishments that would be cheered on by conservatives, in a different age.

Balanced and surplus budgets. Taxes cut. School choice. Tough on crime.

I don't think he has the appeal necessary to win a presidential election.
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Offline Luis Gonzalez

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Re: I don't see Jeb Bush winning
« Reply #19 on: March 06, 2015, 10:00:38 pm »
I have seen versions of his record, which have accomplishments that would be cheered on by conservatives, in a different age.

Balanced and surplus budgets. Taxes cut. School choice. Tough on crime.

In the late 1990s and early 2000s, Bush led the way among GOP governors with a conservative agenda. By increasing limits on abortions, Bush called himself "probably the most pro-life governor in modern times."

Bush almost provoked a constitutional crisis during the Terri Schiavo case when he took extraordinary measures in an attempt to stop her husband, Michael, from allowing medical authorities to remove a feeding tube from his wife, who was in a vegetative state due to an accident.

A pro-gun state

During Bush's tenure, Florida also became one of the nation's most pro-gun states, with a variety of laws that lessened restrictions on ownership. Under Bush, the concept of the legal use of guns in self-defense was expanded to include the controversial Stand Your Ground law. Moreover, he effectively ended affirmative action in the public sector by executive order and also created a "faith-based" state prison.

Bush's two terms fostered one of the nation's largest experiments in K-12 education. His A+ educational plan used standardized testing as an enforcement tool to evaluate schools, teachers and students. Public schools received grades based upon the aggregated test scores of students along with other factors. These grades determined funding levels, teacher bonuses and advancement for third-graders through high school students.

While this system frustrates many families, it has given parents more options, including charter schools, distance learning and private schools.

This school year, almost 70,000 Florida students are expected to use a tax credit scholarship to attend a private school. Nearly 230,000 Florida students now attend charter schools, which use taxpayer money but are administered by non-profits and businesses.

To the ire of conservative groups, many states have replicated Bush's policies, which have become known as the Common Core standards. Yet during his time as governor, most of the criticism of Bush's policies came from Democrats, including teachers' unions.

Bush also battled public unions in Florida on several fronts. He reclassified more than 16,000 state government workers out of the civil service pool. He also transferred government services to the private and non-profit sectors in areas that include foster care, the human resources division and parts of the state's responsibility for Medicaid. Though these efforts had very mixed results, the many policy changes have largely remained in place after Bush left office in 2007.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2015/02/01/jeb-bush-conservative-credentials-moderate-gop-candidate-governor-column/22702215/
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Offline NavyCanDo

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Re: I don't see Jeb Bush winning
« Reply #20 on: March 07, 2015, 06:43:30 am »
He's going to have to make a 180 degree turn on Common Core, and admit it was a disaster before I even remotely consider him.
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Offline massadvj

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Re: I don't see Jeb Bush winning
« Reply #21 on: March 07, 2015, 11:57:47 am »
I will grant that Jeb Bush gets a bad rap for not being conservative.  His record is way better than Romney, McCain or Dole (the last three establishment losers).  But I continue to say the man simply cannot win a general election against Hillary Clinton.  He is 15 points behind with equal name recognition and a money disadvantage.  That cannot be overcome.

The GOP is not going to beat the Clinton machine with a repositioned known candidate.  We need a spanking, new high performance brand to put up against the tired old jalopy.  That bodes well for Scott Walker, assuming he can hold up under the national spotlight.  So far, he has.

Offline aligncare

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Re: I don't see Jeb Bush winning
« Reply #22 on: March 07, 2015, 12:39:28 pm »
He's going to have to make a 180 degree turn on Common Core, and admit it was a disaster before I even remotely consider him.

And, on immigration.

I will grant that Jeb Bush gets a bad rap for not being conservative.  His record is way better than Romney, McCain or Dole (the last three establishment losers).  But I continue to say the man simply cannot win a general election against Hillary Clinton.  He is 15 points behind with equal name recognition and a money disadvantage.  That cannot be overcome.

The GOP is not going to beat the Clinton machine with a repositioned known candidate.  We need a spanking, new high performance brand to put up against the tired old jalopy.  That bodes well for Scott Walker, assuming he can hold up under the national spotlight.  So far, he has.

Not on immigration.

For me, immigration and border control is part of the larger concern: terrorism. Also, giving control back to the U.S. to say who should be considered for citizenship. As it is now the alien makes that decision. I want to turn it back to the way it was in the 1950s when my family emigrated here. There were conditions to being allowed in. I want to select people who want to be Americans. Not hyphenated Americans – but Americans.

I don't want people in who don't share a love of this country. That's the bottom line for me.
« Last Edit: March 07, 2015, 12:43:51 pm by aligncare »

Offline massadvj

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Re: I don't see Jeb Bush winning
« Reply #23 on: March 07, 2015, 08:04:32 pm »
And, on immigration.

Not on immigration.

For me, immigration and border control is part of the larger concern: terrorism. Also, giving control back to the U.S. to say who should be considered for citizenship. As it is now the alien makes that decision. I want to turn it back to the way it was in the 1950s when my family emigrated here. There were conditions to being allowed in. I want to select people who want to be Americans. Not hyphenated Americans – but Americans.

I don't want people in who don't share a love of this country. That's the bottom line for me.

Then I guess you will be supporting Cruz or Carson?  Who else is squeaky clean on immigration?

Offline aligncare

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Re: I don't see Jeb Bush winning
« Reply #24 on: March 08, 2015, 01:06:03 am »
Then I guess you will be supporting Cruz or Carson?  Who else is squeaky clean on immigration?

Romney.

Now, If only he were running.