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John LaForge, commodities strategist at Ned Davis Research says gold is going to $660 an ounce.In an appearance on CNBC on Thursday, LaForge said that the end of the current "supercycle" for gold could push the precious metal down to $660 an ounce, or about 40% lower than where it is currently trading.LaForge said that in the 1980s, the price of gold fell about 65% from peak-to-trough as the precious metal enduring a 20-year bear market.And after hitting $1900 an ounce in 2011, gold should see a similar peak-to-trough decline in current cycle."We know that commodities run in supercycles, and they eventually die. And gold looks like it's dying," LaForge said."So $660 is certainly in the cards."LaForge did say, however, that the quantitative easing being undertaken by the Federal Reserve and other central banks could prop up gold and stop the current supercycle from deflating the way LaForge expects. Gold was trading near $1214 an ounce on Thursday.Here's a chart of the last 20 years of gold prices.
Gold Seeing Bright Spots, Still Far From RecoveryThursday October 2, 2014, 3:45pm PDT By Teresa Matich+ - Exclusive to Gold Investing News Gold prices have taken a beating lately, and although there were signs of improvement this week, the yellow metal still has a long way to go before engaging in a full-on turnaround. A strong US dollar and fears of rising interest rates have been driving gold down, but the metal was buoyed up slightly by tensions in Hong Kong and by fears of the spreading Ebola virus.On Thursday, Reuters reported that spot gold prices were up 0.3 percent to $1,217.30 by 11:47 PM ET, while gold futures for December delivery gained $2.20 to reach $1,217.70 on New York’s COMEX.Those gains followed a slight bump from the day before, when December gold futures recorded a 3 percent gain to settle at $1,215.50. However, prices touched $1,205 earlier on Wednesday, according to the Wall Street Journal, uncomfortably close to the psychologically important level of $1,200 per ounce.Positive factorsPro-democracy protests in Hong Kong have driven some favor for gold, which is often seen as a safe haven investment, while other issues such as an assault on a Syrian border town by Isalmic insurgents and the arrival of the first case of Ebola in the United States have supported prices as well.To be sure, some analysts are positive on the yellow metal, at least in the short term. Edward Meir, metals analyst at brokerage INTL FCStone, told Reuters, “[w]ith the likelihood of further weakness in equity markets, coupled with the still-volatile situation in Hong Kong, we would rather not want to be short gold here, as we think the precious metal may benefit from some short-covering heading into the weekend.”Michael O’Rourke of Jones Trading, saw a potential catalyst for gold on the back of a weakening equities market. “From a timing perspective, the best opportunity would likely come when the dollar finally pauses to consolidate its current gains. Even the temporary dissipation of such a headwind would likely lead to a sharp rally,” he told Marketwatch.The ever rising dollarStill, its worth noting that gold prices recorded a 5.9 percent loss for September, the biggest since June 2013, and while the US dollar has taken pauses in its relentless ascent, analysts have said that the rally could continue for months, or even years, which isn’t good news for gold. Chris Turner, global head of strategy at ING told the BBC, “[w]e think the dollar rally has another two years to go at least.”While gold bugs might have had lifted spirits over the past two days, they will no doubt be watching the US dollar closely – in tandem with the rest of the market - to see whether it continues to weigh on gold prices. ...
