http://www.politico.com/story/2014/09/rick-santorum-returns-111408.html?hp=l12 Rick Santorum returns
By: Anna Palmer
September 29, 2014 05:05 AM EDT
Rick Santorum helped drag out the 2012 Republican primary, sending Mitt Romney limping into the general election.
Santorum’s lesson: Get in even earlier in 2016.
The iconoclast social conservative is already taking the temperature of potential donors. His big money benefactor, Foster Friess, still adores him. He’s headed to Iowa in October to meet with key conservative activists. And he is growing his grass-roots network beyond early primary states.
Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus earlier this year called the primary process a “complete disaster,” promising to slash the number of debates to prevent “the traveling circus” from hijacking the race as Santorum, Newt Gingrich and others did in 2012. The primary season pushed Romney further and further to the right as he burned through cash, instead of answering the Obama machine’s attacks on him.
But Santorum has no apologies. So while the field of social conservatives is expected to be stronger in 2016, the Pennsylvania Republican’s early moves could still put him in a better position in the next go-round, setting up the threat of an even bigger problem for establishment Republicans if they don’t prepare for another onslaught of outsiders eager to beat up the party’s eventual nominee.
“My head is very wrapped around the idea of getting things in line to move forward, but it’s a process and you take a step at a time,” Santorum said in an interview.
While Santorum is clearly preparing for a 2016 run, he declined to put a timeline on when he would make an official announcement. Santorum predicted that the presidential campaign season would start later in the 2016 cycle. Earlier this year, the party moved to cut the number of primary debates — a decision that would benefit candidates who don’t need the free media exposure.
“That may cause a whole rethinking as to when the campaign starts, we’ll see,” Santorum said. “Really the campaign doesn’t get much momentum until you have debates. You don’t really see the candidates. You can have some forums, but they are generally not as heavily covered and so it becomes much more of an organizational, fundraising time as opposed to more of a public debate of ideas.”
Kirsten Kukowski, an RNC spokeswoman, said limiting the number of debates will shift the focus to grass-roots voters rather than the media.
“The goal is to have the candidates have time to make their case to voters but also limit the amount of debates that allow the media to frame how we talk to voters,” Kukowski said.
Even if there are fewer debates, some Republicans fear candidates like Santorum could hurt their chances in the general.
“It’s going to be another crowded field of candidates, all scrambling for the most conservative title. By the time we get a candidate, everyone will be bloodied,” said Lisa Camooso Miller, a GOP consultant and former RNC spokeswoman. “I find myself hoping that a unifying candidate will emerge from the sidelines, but that doesn’t seem likely. Without a unified field, we stand to witness a near-identical result in 2016. It’ll be especially disappointing if the GOP is going head to head with the Clinton operation.”
Some in the party believe the rise of outsiders in 2012 was more an outgrowth of unhappiness with Romney, rather than the appeal of any of the other candidates.
One veteran Republican presidential operative went so far as to say Santorum was never a serious candidate. Voters in primary states were voting for an anti-Mitt Romney candidate, not for Santorum himself.
Still, several Republicans said Santorum’s 2012 experience could propel him further next time. He won 11 primary contests — dealing embarrassing losses to Romney in Missouri and in the Minnesota and Colorado caucuses.
“Nothing prepares you for running and winning a nomination contest like running and losing a nomination contest,” said Kevin Madden, a top aide to Romney during his 2012 presidential bid. “He and his team should be better prepared for the grind, the pressure and the crises that are all guaranteed elements of the process.”
Veteran Republican consultant Charlie Black, who was Sen. John McCain’s 2008 chief presidential campaign adviser, agreed.
“Rick certainly has good reason to run. In our party, the second-place finisher frequently gets the nomination the next time,” Black said. “Without knowing who all will be in the field, Rick is probably the front-runner among evangelical Christian voters at this point. We will have a large field of good candidates, but Rick will be a serious player.”
One hurdle Santorum will have is standing out in a field of candidates who can appeal to social conservatives. Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas and Rand Paul of Kentucky both play well to his base. While Santorum could easily differentiate himself from Romney, other potential 2016 candidates, including Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, will also appeal to social conservatives.
“That ‘space’ will be more crowded this time, as candidates vie to prove themselves as ‘full-spectrum conservatives,’” Republican pollster Kellyanne Conway predicted. “Sen. Cruz, especially, has a deep and passionate following among values voters, as evidenced by the hero’s welcome he received at Gary Bauer’s summit. Gov. Pence of Indiana has walked with social conservatives for years and expresses classic values in an accessible, nonfrightening manner.”
Republican operative Alex Castellanos said Santorum will have to take a different approach in 2016 to succeed.
“Santorum is a great guy and a good candidate, but Ted Cruz has sucked all the oxygen out of that room and there is no breath left for Santorum with evangelicals,” Castellanos said. “He would be better off running as anti-establishment populist who happens to be conservative on social issues than a social conservative who happens to be a Republican.”
One weakness — shortness of cash — Santorum is already working on.
Santorum appears to be particularly focused on making sure he has the money to mount a credible bid. In addition to meeting with megadonors, Santorum has set up a grass-roots army of potential small donors through his group Patriot Voices, which he launched following his 2012 presidential bid.
“I think most people are still focused on 2014, and I get that, but we’re beginning the process now sort of checking temperatures of folks,” Santorum said.
Friess was one of Santorum’s biggest 2012 contributors and kept his campaign afloat with big influxes of cash at crucial times during the cycle. Friess wrote in an email he is supporting Santorum and plans to cut checks for campaign contributions and to a super PAC for Santorum.
“Basically, I’m a brother from another mother,” Friess said, noting the two had known each other for more than a quarter of a century. “But beyond my personal relationship with him, it is important to point out that he was more about the challenges of radical Islam than most of the other candidates combined.”
Relying on donors like Friess can also be troublesome. The megadonor caused trouble for Santorum during the 2012 primary season for his beliefs on gay marriage and women’s contraception.
If Santorum had any doubts about the grass-roots enthusiasm for him, his popularity with the party faithful was on full display at the annual Value Voters Summit on Friday in Washington, D.C. Walking through the massive Omni Shoreham Hotel on his way to radio hits and interviews, he was stopped every few steps to pose for photos with fans or by activists seeking to introduce themselves. Still, he came in fourth at the Value Voters Summit presidential straw poll behind Cruz, Ben Carson and Mike Huckabee.
He also polled at the bottom of the pack in a CNN poll out of Iowa, though 15% of voters held no opinion.
Santorum is already taking a more active political role — though spotty — in the midterm elections compared to 2010. He endorsed and appeared in an ad for long-shot Republican Senate candidate Sam Clovis in Iowa before throwing his support to Joni Ernst. Santorum also has campaigned in South Carolina for lieutenant governor candidate Henry McMasters. He also played an active role in supporting tea party challenger Chris McDaniel’s bid to oust Sen. Thad Cochran, appearing in a Citizens United ad for McDaniel.
Santorum has also distributed money through his Patriot Voices PAC to conservatives, cutting checks to GOP Senate candidates like Ben Sasse in Nebraska, Tom Cotton in Arkansas, Jason Conger in Oregon and McDaniel in Mississippi.
And his political team is still intact. Famous for running his 2012 bid on a shoe-string budget, the inner circle of Santorum advisers remains largely the same, including political strategist John Brabender; Nick Ryan, who is based in Iowa; Matt Beynon of Madison Strategic Ventures; and spokeswoman Virginia Davis.
Recreating the same rogue campaign — he didn’t even use a pollster — is unlikely, but Santorum allies say he wants to try and keep a low overhead.
Santorum’s return to the national stage isn’t welcomed by some establishment Republicans who have tried to limit candidates’ exposure on social issues because they want to take back the White House.
And while Santorum casts himself as a social conservative, that is at odds with where the Republican party has focused its messaging. Based on polling, the RNC and the Senate and House party committees have focused their 2014 election messaging on the economy, jobs, health care and security.
But Santorum’s not planning on shying away from his conservative Christian platform — and thinks party officials who do are making a mistake.
“This concept that if we run from these issues and just hear no evil, speak no evil, see no evil that somehow or another if we bury our head in the sand that this issue is going to go away, is just obviously wrong,” Santorum said, pointing to the Virginia governor’s race that Ken Cuccinelli lost after Democrats pounded him on women’s issues. ”Either we believe these things or we don’t, either we’re going to advocate for these things or we give up and run away. And right now, I think the idea is giving up and run away and play defense and it’s a horrible strategy. I don’t care what issue it is. It’s a bad strategy.”
One strategy that Santorum hasn’t changed is his belief that Iowa is the key to his success.
“It’s everything,” Santorum said. “If you don’t win or finish in the top two or three in Iowa, or win or finish in the top two or three in New Hampshire, you are out of the race, I don’t care who you are.”
Santorum has the added pressure to come out on top there because he bested Romney in 2012 after a recount. Santorum and his political allies attribute his victory to his intense grass-roots campaigning and more than 300 meetings before the caucuses.
“Rick has a good foundation here in Iowa,” said Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa), who is slated to meet with Santorum next month. “He has a network that he still has all across the state. There are some places where it is very very strong.”
Since dropping out of the 2012 presidential campaign, Santorum has visited Iowa a handful of times and that is expected to increase. He is doing events next month with the Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition and King.
Just because Santorum had success in the 2012 Iowa caucuses, doesn’t mean that he can count on all his former supporters to remain in his camp.
“Iowans expect to be courted all over again,” said former Iowa GOP chairman Matt Strawn, noting that Santorum understands that. “Just because somebody went to the prom with you junior year doesn’t mean they are going to go with you senior year.”
