James Carville: Midterm Predictions May Be Wrong

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Newsmax
James Carville: Midterm Predictions May Be Wrong
Wednesday, August 6, 2014 09:58 AM

By: Melissa Clyne

The low favorability rating of the Republican Party may alter the GOP's chance of success in the midterm elections, Democratic strategist James Carville writes in  a commentary in The Hill.

He characterizes as "disturbing" and "disconcerting" recent predictions by The Cook Political Report’s David Wasserman and FiveThirtyEight.com’s Nate Silver, a respected statistician with a proven track record of accurate political predictions. Wasserman recently changed his House ratings model toward favoring Republicans, while Silver is forecasting a 60 percent likelihood that there will be a GOP Senate takeover.

What Wasserman and Silver are not taking into account, according to Carville, are voters’ views of the respective political parties.

"Looking at the just released ABC/Washington Post poll, which also has a solid reputation, we find that the Democratic Party is viewed favorably by 49 percent and the Republican Party at — hold your breath — 35 percent," Carville wrote. "Now ponder this for a second: in essence, in what other endeavor would you be selling something attached to a brand so unpopular and expect success? And yet so many people conclude that how people view a political party has nothing to do with their vote."

He wrote that pollsters have long warned that voter registration should not be given as much weight as "how a voter identifies him or herself," citing an ABC/Washington Post poll where 32 percent of Americans identified themselves as Democrats compared with 22 percent as Republicans, adding that "these have to be among historically high numbers for party favorability differential."

"I do not doubt that Wasserman and Silver have arrived at their consensus out of anything other than a high degree of professionalism," Carville wrote. "I just wonder why they are placing such a large bet on a party that so few people like and even less want to identify with."

[Oceander]

Is he predicting that the predictions will be wrong? 

[GourmetDan]

Anybody ever notice that snakeheads became a problematic invasive species about the same time that James Carville showed up?

[Relic]

Carville is right. Republican has become a brand that has a large negative perception. Republicans stand for nothing. If you vote for one, (and you'd never want to admit you did), you have no idea what you're going to get. The general public can't figure out who is Tea Party, who is GOP, and they are deeply concerned that voting Republican will get them a Tea Party representative.

With the GOPe positioning itself to be Democrat lite, why vote GOPe, when you can vote Dem and get the real thing?

I would bet a modest sum that Republicans will not take the Senate.

[Chieftain]

Carville is right. Republican has become a brand that has a large negative perception. Republicans stand for nothing. If you vote for one, (and you'd never want to admit you did), you have no idea what you're going to get. The general public can't figure out who is Tea Party, who is GOP, and they are deeply concerned that voting Republican will get them a Tea Party representative.

With the GOPe positioning itself to be Democrat lite, why vote GOPe, when you can vote Dem and get the real thing?

I would bet a modest sum that Republicans will not take the Senate.

I'll cover whatever amount you are silly enough to part with.  For starters, Serpent Head is talking about an ABC News/Washington Post poll that ought to explain everything about their results.  Could it be that many Republicans and Conservatives simply avoid both of those entities like the plague?? 

As in all discussions about polls, unless you see the actual numbers of who was polled, questions asked and how they were phrased, then you really don't know what this poll actually shows.

Lies, damned lies, and statistics....

 

[alicewonders]

"I do not doubt that Wasserman and Silver have arrived at their consensus out of anything other than a high degree of professionalism," Carville wrote. "I just wonder why they are placing such a large bet on a party that so few people like and even less want to identify with."

I happen to agree with Carville.  I remember the polls before the 2012 election - we were all riding high and euphoric that Romney was doing well in the polls - and that there was NO WAY Obama was going to be re-elected!  I mean, look at his dismal debate performance and how he was sliding in the polls!

But what happened?  Election night found me sitting in my living room in absolute shock with tears running down my face.  What happened?  Later, I remember some liberals laughing about it and saying that the polls were manipulated to make us think Romney was winning. 

The SAME thing is happening now!  If we are busy high-fiving and thinking the GOP is going to gain control of the Senate - we are not on high-alert and doing everything we can to GOTV.  Why, I've seen people HERE - on this forum - say that we are easily and FOR SURE going to take back the Senate AND - not only that - we are a cinch to win in 2016!

My God, how you underestimate these criminal thugs!  Why is Harry Reid not bringing anything up for a vote?  Three hundred-some bills just sitting on his desk?  They're in control now - why not just vote on them?  Because he knows they will still be on his desk AFTER the election!  He knows they will still be in control then.

There are some delusional people here in this forum that think the GOP is doing just fine!  The party is hated by much of it's base!  Blame the base for that if you want - but if a party is thumbing it's nose at it's most passionate members - and if these members are trying their gawl-danged best to put some candidates in there that will go to Washington and at least try to clean up the mess these incumbents have made - and the party mocks and ridicules them, and comes down on these candidates with the full force and fury that we would love to see them inflict on the other party!

For years now, we've been hearing "Just shut up and vote for the GOP - this election is the most important and once we get a majority - we'll change things then, by golly!"  It never happens.  When they had a majority with W in the White House they squandered it - and then they lost it, maybe never to regain it again. 

The GOP is in trouble and these cheerleaders refuse to look at the real problem - instead, they blame the voters for not seeing the wonderfulness of these old geezers that have been on an eternal spending spree compliments of the good old taxpayer. 

Carville is absolutely right.

[Relic]

I'll cover whatever amount you are silly enough to part with.  For starters, Serpent Head is talking about an ABC News/Washington Post poll that ought to explain everything about their results.  Could it be that many Republicans and Conservatives simply avoid both of those entities like the plague?? 

As in all discussions about polls, unless you see the actual numbers of who was polled, questions asked and how they were phrased, then you really don't know what this poll actually shows.

Lies, damned lies, and statistics....

 

I'm not paying close attention to polls. I'm paying close attention to what people around me are saying. In my part of the world, voting Republican is something you don't readily admit to doing. The brand is damaged in a way similar to what the left did to Fox News.

[GourmetDan]

I'm not paying close attention to polls. I'm paying close attention to what people around me are saying. In my part of the world, voting Republican is something you don't readily admit to doing. The brand is damaged in a way similar to what the left did to Fox News.

Ain't universal suffrage great...

[katzenjammer]

"I do not doubt that Wasserman and Silver have arrived at their consensus out of anything other than a high degree of professionalism," Carville wrote. "I just wonder why they are placing such a large bet on a party that so few people like and even less want to identify with."

I happen to agree with Carville.  I remember the polls before the 2012 election - we were all riding high and euphoric that Romney was doing well in the polls - and that there was NO WAY Obama was going to be re-elected!  I mean, look at his dismal debate performance and how he was sliding in the polls!

But what happened?  Election night found me sitting in my living room in absolute shock with tears running down my face.  What happened?  Later, I remember some liberals laughing about it and saying that the polls were manipulated to make us think Romney was winning. 

The SAME thing is happening now!  If we are busy high-fiving and thinking the GOP is going to gain control of the Senate - we are not on high-alert and doing everything we can to GOTV.  Why, I've seen people HERE - on this forum - say that we are easily and FOR SURE going to take back the Senate AND - not only that - we are a cinch to win in 2016!

My God, how you underestimate these criminal thugs!  Why is Harry Reid not bringing anything up for a vote?  Three hundred-some bills just sitting on his desk?  They're in control now - why not just vote on them?  Because he knows they will still be on his desk AFTER the election!  He knows they will still be in control then.

There are some delusional people here in this forum that think the GOP is doing just fine!  The party is hated by much of it's base!  Blame the base for that if you want - but if a party is thumbing it's nose at it's most passionate members - and if these members are trying their gawl-danged best to put some candidates in there that will go to Washington and at least try to clean up the mess these incumbents have made - and the party mocks and ridicules them, and comes down on these candidates with the full force and fury that we would love to see them inflict on the other party!

For years now, we've been hearing "Just shut up and vote for the GOP - this election is the most important and once we get a majority - we'll change things then, by golly!"  It never happens.  When they had a majority with W in the White House they squandered it - and then they lost it, maybe never to regain it again. 

The GOP is in trouble and these cheerleaders refuse to look at the real problem - instead, they blame the voters for not seeing the wonderfulness of these old geezers that have been on an eternal spending spree compliments of the good old taxpayer. 

Carville is absolutely right.

Brava!!

Can't disagree with a thing you said,  Alice.  And truth be told, with the lousy candidates lined up for the Senate races, I will be much more disappointed if the Rays don't get a Wildcard spot than the GOPe failing to win control of the Senate...

[sinkspur]

Carville is right. Republican has become a brand that has a large negative perception. Republicans stand for nothing. If you vote for one, (and you'd never want to admit you did), you have no idea what you're going to get. The general public can't figure out who is Tea Party, who is GOP, and they are deeply concerned that voting Republican will get them a Tea Party representative.

With the GOPe positioning itself to be Democrat lite, why vote GOPe, when you can vote Dem and get the real thing?

I would bet a modest sum that Republicans will not take the Senate.

I'll take that bet.

[sinkspur]

I can't believe more people on this site aren't more politically astute.  6th year mid-terms are about THE PRESIDENT.  They're not about parties; hell, most people could care less about parties.  2006 was about Bush; it was the last time voters would get to tell Bush what they thought of him.

Same in 2014.  Obama is at his lowest point, and when presidents are this low, their parties ALWAYS lose Seats in both Houses.  Carville knows better;  mid-term voters are not about parties, they're about the man in the White House.

As for the GOP, most Republicans, frankly, aren't into the Tea-Party-GOPe thing.  Voters don't care; they don't like Obama.  Why do you think the Dems are so desperate to whip up Impeachment talk?  It's all they've got, and dopes like Steve King keep falling right into their trap.

Republicans will easily take the Senate and increase seats in the House.  Obamacare increases are about to hit, and they won't be tiny.

[Relic]

I can't believe more people on this site aren't more politically astute.  6th year mid-terms are about THE PRESIDENT.  They're not about parties; hell, most people could care less about parties.  2006 was about Bush; it was the last time voters would get to tell Bush what they thought of him.

Same in 2014.  Obama is at his lowest point, and when presidents are this low, their parties ALWAYS lose Seats in both Houses.  Carville knows better;  mid-term voters are not about parties, they're about the man in the White House.

As for the GOP, most Republicans, frankly, aren't into the Tea-Party-GOPe thing.  Voters don't care; they don't like Obama.  Why do you think the Dems are so desperate to whip up Impeachment talk?  It's all they've got, and dopes like Steve King keep falling right into their trap.

Republicans will easily take the Senate and increase seats in the House.  Obamacare increases are about to hit, and they won't be tiny.

The people I talk to are frustrated with Obama. They aren't happy with Democrats in general. But, they don't see Republicans as a viable option.

The past isn't a predictor of future performance. Given the economy numbers, no way Obama should have been re-elected.

[sinkspur]

The people I talk to are frustrated with Obama. They aren't happy with Democrats in general. But, they don't see Republicans as a viable option.

The past isn't a predictor of future performance. Given the economy numbers, no way Obama should have been re-elected.

Well, anecdotal evidence is not worth much, except to the person with the evidence.  The fact is, 6th year midterms in recent years have been about the president, and Obama is nearly as unpopular as Bush. 

Again, I don't think this will be about parties, but about Obama.  And it's going to be ugly.

[Lando Lincoln]

Well, anecdotal evidence is not worth much, except to the person with the evidence.  The fact is, 6th year midterms in recent years have been about the president, and Obama is nearly as unpopular as Bush. 

Again, I don't think this will be about parties, but about Obama.  And it's going to be ugly.

If you are right sink, and I think you are, it will be beautiful.

[Fishrrman]

Excellent posts by both Relic and alicewonders above.

And Alice, you're especially right about James Carville -- he may look reptilian and he's on the wrong side, but he's no fool.

Relic wrote:
[[ The people I talk to are frustrated with Obama. They aren't happy with Democrats in general. But, they don't see Republicans as a viable option. ]]

As you wrote above, the Pubbies have "gone Seinfeld", and transformed themselves into "a party about nothing".

The Republican party demise is growin' closer.
It will soon be time for a new party to emerge.

The Tea Party is something like John the Baptist. He is not the Messiah, but his message is a portent of that which is yet to come...

[sinkspur]

The Tea Party didn't win a single Senate primary.  Not one.

For a party about "nothing," the GOP stands an excellent chance of being in charge of Congress next year.

There's a whole lot of wishful thinking going on around here and other places.  If any group is going to die, it's the Tea Party and the SCF and Heritage Action and all those groups that poured thousands into loser candidates.

Midterms are about the President, and Obama is going to cost his party the Senate in three months.

[alicewonders]

Excellent posts by both Relic and alicewonders above.

And Alice, you're especially right about James Carville -- he may look reptilian and he's on the wrong side, but he's no fool.

Relic wrote:
[[ The people I talk to are frustrated with Obama. They aren't happy with Democrats in general. But, they don't see Republicans as a viable option. ]]

As you wrote above, the Pubbies have "gone Seinfeld", and transformed themselves into "a party about nothing".

The Republican party demise is growin' closer.
It will soon be time for a new party to emerge.

The Tea Party is something like John the Baptist. He is not the Messiah, but his message is a portent of that which is yet to come...

That is a wonderful quote about John the Baptist, Fishrrman!  I do believe that is true and it is comforting to me.  Thank you. 

[evadR]

"I do not doubt that Wasserman and Silver have arrived at their consensus out of anything other than a high degree of professionalism," Carville wrote. "I just wonder why they are placing such a large bet on a party that so few people like and even less want to identify with."

I happen to agree with Carville.  I remember the polls before the 2012 election - we were all riding high and euphoric that Romney was doing well in the polls - and that there was NO WAY Obama was going to be re-elected!  I mean, look at his dismal debate performance and how he was sliding in the polls!

But what happened?  Election night found me sitting in my living room in absolute shock with tears running down my face.  What happened?  Later, I remember some liberals laughing about it and saying that the polls were manipulated to make us think Romney was winning. 

The SAME thing is happening now!  If we are busy high-fiving and thinking the GOP is going to gain control of the Senate - we are not on high-alert and doing everything we can to GOTV.  Why, I've seen people HERE - on this forum - say that we are easily and FOR SURE going to take back the Senate AND - not only that - we are a cinch to win in 2016!

My God, how you underestimate these criminal thugs!  Why is Harry Reid not bringing anything up for a vote?  Three hundred-some bills just sitting on his desk?  They're in control now - why not just vote on them?  Because he knows they will still be on his desk AFTER the election!  He knows they will still be in control then.

There are some delusional people here in this forum that think the GOP is doing just fine!  The party is hated by much of it's base!  Blame the base for that if you want - but if a party is thumbing it's nose at it's most passionate members - and if these members are trying their gawl-danged best to put some candidates in there that will go to Washington and at least try to clean up the mess these incumbents have made - and the party mocks and ridicules them, and comes down on these candidates with the full force and fury that we would love to see them inflict on the other party!

For years now, we've been hearing "Just shut up and vote for the GOP - this election is the most important and once we get a majority - we'll change things then, by golly!"  It never happens.  When they had a majority with W in the White House they squandered it - and then they lost it, maybe never to regain it again. 

The GOP is in trouble and these cheerleaders refuse to look at the real problem - instead, they blame the voters for not seeing the wonderfulness of these old geezers that have been on an eternal spending spree compliments of the good old taxpayer. 

Carville is absolutely right.

Alice: I smell rope-a-dope in all this euphoria.

I think the pubbies should be running like they're 10 points down.
They probably are.

[alicewonders]

Alice: I smell rope-a-dope in all this euphoria.

I think the pubbies should be running like they're 10 points down.
They probably are.

Agree evadR².  I keep having flashbacks to Romney/Ryan.    Fool me once, shame on you - fool me twice, shame on me.  It would behoove the GOP to run against the Dems like they ran against the tea party. 

[evadR]

 It would behoove the GOP to run against the Dems like they ran against the tea party.

 

Use every filthy trick in the book. They've had their practice.