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Offline mystery-ak

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Tea Party’s Senate hopes fade
« on: August 05, 2014, 09:52:35 AM »
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/214302-tea-partys-final-senate-hopes-fade

August 05, 2014, 06:00 am
Tea Party’s Senate hopes fade

By Alexandra Jaffe

A dismal primary cycle for Tea Party Republicans will likely get more disappointing this week with uphill races in Kansas and Tennessee.

On Tuesday, Sen. Pat Roberts (R-Kan.) is the favorite to win reelection against radiologist Milton Wolf, though conservatives have certainly dinged the three-term incumbent. Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.) is a far more comfortable bet in his Tuesday contest.

Roberts was once seen as ripe for a primary challenge: He has a notably centrist voting record, having supported the bipartisan immigration reform proposal in the Senate and having voted to raise the debt limit before. And reports that he no longer lives in the home he owns in Kansas, but instead rents a room from donors when he visits, have dogged him throughout the race.

Similar residency issues have contributed to primary losses before. And Roberts did himself no favors by making repeated gaffes on the issue, most recently admitting he returns home “whenever I get an opponent.”

But the race followed a trajectory similar to other GOP contests that have opened to much fanfare but fizzled at the finish line: Tea Party enthusiasts backed a flawed candidate, were outspent on the airwaves and outgunned on the ground.

Even conservatives admit Wolf winning on Tuesday is a long-shot.

“It has been low key, Milton has not been destroyed, and he has been quietly surging. I think it's possible for him to win, [but] most likely will come up a little short ” said one Tea Party operative engaged in Senate races.

That sentiment is a 180 degree turn from the initial excitement over his challenge to Roberts.

Wolf — a second cousin to President Obama — was one of the first candidates endorsed by the Senate Conservatives Fund. An outspoken Tea Party activist, he’s no fan of his distant relative. Wolf received over half a million in financial support from SCF, bringing the total from outside groups helping him to around $650,000 on the race. Groups backing Roberts have kicked in around $400,000.

But local reports detailing posts Wolf made to Facebook of gruesome X-ray images, with off-color commentary, stalled his campaign earlier this year, and he hasn’t managed to recover.

Wolf wasn’t helped by news two weeks ago that he’s under investigation by a state ethics board for the images, a fact the Roberts campaign has used in attack ads over the past few weeks as evidence he’s “unfit for Kansas.”

That character indictment has been central to Roberts’s strategy in the race, and it’s one that’s worked for incumbents in previous primaries this cycle. In Kentucky, Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) successfully portrayed his primary opponent as a serial liar; in Mississippi, Sen. Thad Cochran (R-Miss.) suggested his primary challenger associated with shady characters.

Like those contests, the Kansas incumbent has used a considerable cash advantage to raise questions of viability on the airwaves. Wolf had less than $95,000 cash on hand as of July 16, while Roberts had $1.45 million cash, after spending almost double what Wolf did during the first two weeks of July.

Part of the problem has been that the national conservative groups who would typically engage heavily in primaries are essentially all primaried out, having spent financial and staff resources beyond what they expected on the Mississippi Republican primary runoff, the battle over which is still raging.

“We spent a ton of financial and human resources in Mississippi, and so got to these races about three weeks later than we expected to and with diminished coffers,” Kevin Broughton, spokesman for the Tea Party Express, told The Hill previously.

That spells trouble for another Tea Party-backed candidate, the last contender with a shot at taking down an incumbent senator, if Wolf loses.

Tennessee state Rep. Joe Carr has nabbed the endorsements of a handful of national conservative groups and voices in his primary challenge to Alexander, but still far fewer than Wolf. The Senate Conservatives Fund is still sitting the Volunteer State race out, and Carr is seen as an even longer shot than even Wolf.

If Wolf loses, as expected, it may be doubly difficult for conservatives to build the momentum they’d need to push Carr over the finish line in an even tougher race, past an even stronger incumbent.

But conservatives won’t be bowed. On Monday, they were already spinning the potential Wolf loss into a win.

“[The establishment has] been forced to adopt our issues,” said the Tea Party operative. “It has always been difficult to gain enough name ID and raise money to defeat an incumbent who lacks any personal scandals. That will never change. But we are winning on the issues.”

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Offline olde north church

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Re: Tea Party’s Senate hopes fade
« Reply #1 on: August 05, 2014, 10:34:14 AM »
I'm going to start a Tea Party spam list.  Thar's gold in that thar Tea!
Why?  Well, because I'm a bastard, that's why.

Offline alicewonders

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Re: Tea Party’s Senate hopes fade
« Reply #2 on: August 05, 2014, 10:45:22 AM »
Incumbents.  You gotta love 'em, dontcha? 

They really have nothing to run on - they've sold Americans down the river, spent us into bankruptcy, made us a laughing stock on the world stage, armed and trained drug cartels and jihadists, "helplessly" watched as Obamacare was shoved down the American Taxpayer's throats, did everything they could to sneak amnesty in to buy votes, ......

As I was saying, they have nothing to run on except that they are incumbents!  They have mastered the big thug machine to an art - although they reserve it's use only to uppity upstarts that DARE to run against them in primaries.   :nometalk:  No wonder the IRS has been allowed to bully and punish "upstarts" - it helps the GOPe too. 
Don't tread on me.   8888madkitty

We told you Trump would win - bigly!

Offline Relic

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Re: Tea Party’s Senate hopes fade
« Reply #3 on: August 05, 2014, 10:48:38 AM »
Incumbents.  You gotta love 'em, dontcha? 

They really have nothing to run on - they've sold Americans down the river, spent us into bankruptcy, made us a laughing stock on the world stage, armed and trained drug cartels and jihadists, "helplessly" watched as Obamacare was shoved down the American Taxpayer's throats, did everything they could to sneak amnesty in to buy votes, ......

As I was saying, they have nothing to run on except that they are incumbents!  They have mastered the big thug machine to an art - although they reserve it's use only to uppity upstarts that DARE to run against them in primaries.   :nometalk:  No wonder the IRS has been allowed to bully and punish "upstarts" - it helps the GOPe too.

As currently constituted, the GOPe won't win in a dominating way. And they won't win the White House. Makes me think that is the plan.

Offline Oceander

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Re: Tea Party’s Senate hopes fade
« Reply #4 on: August 05, 2014, 10:59:44 AM »
:facepalm2:
Trump does not represent the will of the people.  If we really wanted to respect the decision of "the people," then Clinton would be the president-elect, not Trump, for the simple reason that she won the popular vote.

Offline speekinout

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Re: Tea Party’s Senate hopes fade
« Reply #5 on: August 05, 2014, 04:49:14 PM »
Most of the Tea Party candidates have had serious flaws. Whoever selects these candidates is going to have to learn to use some kind of vetting process. At this point, there have been so many poor candidates touted by the Tea Party that even an excellent candidate would be tarnished by having that label attached to them.

Offline Relic

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Re: Tea Party’s Senate hopes fade
« Reply #6 on: August 05, 2014, 05:39:39 PM »
Most of the Tea Party candidates have had serious flaws. Whoever selects these candidates is going to have to learn to use some kind of vetting process. At this point, there have been so many poor candidates touted by the Tea Party that even an excellent candidate would be tarnished by having that label attached to them.

Totally agree.

We are between a rock and a hard place. Because if you dismiss the Tea Party, you are left with a batch of spineless people with unclear goals as your opposition party.

Online Once-Ler

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Re: Tea Party’s Senate hopes fade
« Reply #7 on: August 05, 2014, 06:16:33 PM »
As currently constituted, the GOPe won't win in a dominating way. And they won't win the White House. Makes me think that is the plan.
The GOPe will add 10-12 Senate seats in 2014 and we can't help but win the presidency in 2016...even if the primary voters pick the wackiest right fringer possible.  What is so glorious about this whole situation is the tea party is working overtime to prove they not only had nothing to do with the success of the GOPe, they tried there damnest to tank the GOPe and failed miserably.

Keep on digging that hole "true conservatives," while I count me some chickens.

1 dozen
2 dozen
3 dozen...
(((Yair Rosenberg))) ‏@Yair_Rosenberg 15 hours ago

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Offline speekinout

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Re: Tea Party’s Senate hopes fade
« Reply #8 on: August 05, 2014, 06:20:11 PM »
Totally agree.

We are between a rock and a hard place. Because if you dismiss the Tea Party, you are left with a batch of spineless people with unclear goals as your opposition party.

I think it's a matter of priorities. IMO, first and foremost, we get the GOP in power. Then we tell them loud and clear what we want them to do. That sequence has a high chance of succeeding. Leaving the dims in power has zero chance of succeeding. And nominating unelectable Tea Party candidates *is* leaving the dims in control.

BTW, I agree with much of what the Tea Party wants to do. I was an enthusiastic supporter in the beginning. But then we started seeing their candidate list, and that's where I have major disagreements. (And disappointments)

Offline jmyrlefuller

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Re: Tea Party’s Senate hopes fade
« Reply #9 on: August 05, 2014, 06:41:09 PM »
Most of the Tea Party candidates have had serious flaws. Whoever selects these candidates is going to have to learn to use some kind of vetting process. At this point, there have been so many poor candidates touted by the Tea Party that even an excellent candidate would be tarnished by having that label attached to them.
Those supposed “serious flaws” were almost all inventions of the media. Lindsey Graham had several solid candidates with very few noticeable flaws and still beat all of them combined. Thad Cochran had his own issues doing “things with animals.” Mitch McConnell? Ha! He's one of Kentucky's most hated politicians, yet still doubled Matt Bevin's vote total.

It was these outsider political candidates' decision to run with the support of the Tea Party that caused these supposed flaws to appear, not the other way around. The fact is, decades of political insiderdom have allowed these corrupt career politicians the ability (and connections to campaign contributions) to hide their far more serious demons. The fact is, a man with the backing of the working class is never going to be able to compete with a man backed by the rich, as the rich can dupe the working class base with enough cash (see: Obama's re-election).

I used to bristle at the suggestion that both parties are the same, but these days I'm convinced that there is a lot more truth to that perspective. Our country is careening out of control and yet very few on either side of the political aisle are willing to take the necessary—and yes, drastic—steps to turn it around, nor are the unwashed, ignorant masses who vote for them.

In the end, America will get the country its citizens deserve.
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Offline speekinout

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Re: Tea Party’s Senate hopes fade
« Reply #10 on: August 05, 2014, 08:05:07 PM »
Those supposed “serious flaws” were almost all inventions of the media. Lindsey Graham had several solid candidates with very few noticeable flaws and still beat all of them combined. Thad Cochran had his own issues doing “things with animals.” Mitch McConnell? Ha! He's one of Kentucky's most hated politicians, yet still doubled Matt Bevin's vote total.

All three of those politicians are a good argument for keeping the GOP incumbents. They are all popular in their states. Lindsey Graham looked vulnerable, but he spent a lot of time in his state talking to constituents and explaining what he was doing and why. That was in direct contrast to Eric Cantor, who was more popular with the national Tea Party, but didn't bother to spend much time with his constituents.
And both Cochran and McConnell are fairly popular with both dims and GOPers in their states. Bevin had problems with honesty - esp. about the cockfighting issue. That's not the way to win votes.

Quote
It was these outsider political candidates' decision to run with the support of the Tea Party that caused these supposed flaws to appear, not the other way around. The fact is, decades of political insiderdom have allowed these corrupt career politicians the ability (and connections to campaign contributions) to hide their far more serious demons. The fact is, a man with the backing of the working class is never going to be able to compete with a man backed by the rich, as the rich can dupe the working class base with enough cash (see: Obama's re-election).

Those flaws were there. They weren't invented. You can call all incumbents "corrupt", but you have to prove it if you want their constituents to stop voting for them. If there are problems with the opponent that are worse than the ones you can prove about the incumbent, then clearly the incumbent has the edge (and should).
And while money counts, a good expose is worth more than money can buy, esp. if the culprit is GOP. The media will be very happy to run with any story that is negative for a GOP candidate.

Quote
I used to bristle at the suggestion that both parties are the same, but these days I'm convinced that there is a lot more truth to that perspective. Our country is careening out of control and yet very few on either side of the political aisle are willing to take the necessary—and yes, drastic—steps to turn it around, nor are the unwashed, ignorant masses who vote for them.

In the end, America will get the country its citizens deserve.

There are always big differences between parties. Today's dims are very close to socialists; the GOP is not. The dims have power; the GOP does not. There aren't any other differences that matter much right now.

Offline Relic

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Re: Tea Party’s Senate hopes fade
« Reply #11 on: August 05, 2014, 08:22:35 PM »
The GOPe will add 10-12 Senate seats in 2014 and we can't help but win the presidency in 2016...even if the primary voters pick the wackiest right fringer possible.  What is so glorious about this whole situation is the tea party is working overtime to prove they not only had nothing to do with the success of the GOPe, they tried there damnest to tank the GOPe and failed miserably.

Keep on digging that hole "true conservatives," while I count me some chickens.

1 dozen
2 dozen
3 dozen...

It's entertaining how you cast anyone who doesn't agree with you as a "true conservative". That is exactly how liberals cast anyone on the right as being knuckle dragging Fox News faithful.

No way the GOP adds 12 seats, and how you can say the GOP will win the White House without even knowing the candidates indicates that you aren't really a deep thinker.

Offline mystery-ak

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Re: Tea Party’s Senate hopes fade
« Reply #12 on: August 05, 2014, 08:24:57 PM »
P. Roberts (i)52.5%   395
M. Wolf   39.6%   298
D. Smith   4.7%   35
A. Zahnter   3.2%

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Offline mystery-ak

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Re: Tea Party’s Senate hopes fade
« Reply #13 on: August 05, 2014, 08:40:58 PM »
P. Roberts (i)   53.1%   5,683
M. Wolf   36.9%   3,951
D. Smith   5.4%   577
A. Zahnter   4.6%   495

Precincts Reporting: 0.5%
    Updated: 8:39 PM ET
    Source: Associated Press


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Offline mystery-ak

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Re: Tea Party’s Senate hopes fade
« Reply #14 on: August 05, 2014, 08:55:12 PM »
P. Roberts (i)   51.8%   13,404
M. Wolf   37.7%   9,750
D. Smith   6.1%   1,570
A. Zahnter   4.4%   1,142

Precincts Reporting: 0.7%
    Updated: 8:52 PM ET

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Offline mystery-ak

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Re: Tea Party’s Senate hopes fade
« Reply #15 on: August 05, 2014, 09:11:04 PM »
P. Roberts (i)   51.6%   15,878
M. Wolf   37.4%   11,500
D. Smith   6.5%   1,989
A. Zahnter   4.5%   1,384

Precincts Reporting: 2.6%
    Updated: 9:09 PM ET

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Online Once-Ler

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Re: Tea Party’s Senate hopes fade
« Reply #16 on: August 05, 2014, 09:36:38 PM »
It's entertaining how you cast anyone who doesn't agree with you as a "true conservative". That is exactly how liberals cast anyone on the right as being knuckle dragging Fox News faithful.

I am so happy you are entertained. 

When you throw a stick at a pack of dogs, the one who yelps is the one you hit.  Reread my post.  I have cast nobody as a "true conservative."  You outed yourself. 

As far as the 12 senate seats I was wrong.  We will win 13 according to the chairman of the NRSC. 
http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2014/03/21/lucky-13-in-2014-republican-campaign-chair-floats-historic-senate-gains
But what would he know compared to a "real conservative?"
(((Yair Rosenberg))) ‏@Yair_Rosenberg 15 hours ago

I was completely wrong about Trump becoming president. So I'm hoping I was also completely wrong about him being a terrible one.

Offline Relic

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Re: Tea Party’s Senate hopes fade
« Reply #17 on: August 05, 2014, 09:50:19 PM »
I am so happy you are entertained. 

When you throw a stick at a pack of dogs, the one who yelps is the one you hit.  Reread my post.  I have cast nobody as a "true conservative."  You outed yourself. 

As far as the 12 senate seats I was wrong.  We will win 13 according to the chairman of the NRSC. 
http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2014/03/21/lucky-13-in-2014-republican-campaign-chair-floats-historic-senate-gains
But what would he know compared to a "real conservative?"


Your entertainment value diminishes as you reveal your level of insight.
But, stay in your GOPe happy place. Maybe President Romney will call you?

Offline mystery-ak

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Re: Tea Party’s Senate hopes fade
« Reply #18 on: August 05, 2014, 09:54:55 PM »
P. Roberts (i)   49.6%   36,329
M. Wolf   38.8%   28,409
D. Smith   6.4%   4,681
A. Zahnter   5.3%   3,869

Precincts Reporting: 19.8%
    Updated: 9:53 PM ET
    Source: Associated Press

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Offline Fishrrman

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Re: Tea Party’s Senate hopes fade
« Reply #19 on: August 05, 2014, 09:58:49 PM »
jmyrlefuller wrote above:
[[ Mitch McConnell? Ha! He's one of Kentucky's most hated politicians, yet still doubled Matt Bevin's vote total. ]]

McConnell is in serious trouble in Kentucky and may become the one loss the party endures this November.

Would be quite interesting to see the Republicans retake the Senate, but lose their majority leader to a democrat in the process.

Actually, this might end up being a GOOD thing....

Offline mystery-ak

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Re: Tea Party’s Senate hopes fade
« Reply #20 on: August 05, 2014, 10:14:33 PM »
Quote
Would be quite interesting to see the Republicans retake the Senate, but lose their majority leader to a democrat in the process.

I wouldn't mind that at all!

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Offline mystery-ak

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Re: Tea Party’s Senate hopes fade
« Reply #21 on: August 05, 2014, 10:16:24 PM »
P. Roberts (i)   49.6%   50,812
M. Wolf   38.6%   39,548
D. Smith   6.3%   6,403
A. Zahnter   5.5%   5,587

Precincts Reporting: 28.5%
    Updated: 10:14 PM ET
    Source: Associated Press


looks like Roberts will win this...guess 47 years in the Senate doesn't bother voters..... :shrug:

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Offline sinkspur

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Re: Tea Party’s Senate hopes fade
« Reply #22 on: August 05, 2014, 10:19:11 PM »
jmyrlefuller wrote above:
[[ Mitch McConnell? Ha! He's one of Kentucky's most hated politicians, yet still doubled Matt Bevin's vote total. ]]

McConnell is in serious trouble in Kentucky and may become the one loss the party endures this November.

Would be quite interesting to see the Republicans retake the Senate, but lose their majority leader to a democrat in the process.

Actually, this might end up being a GOOD thing....

McConnell is not in trouble.  In every poll taken since May, he has gained on Grimes, and he's now ahead.  Grimes has lost ground in every single poll in the last three months.

McConnell will win handily.  Grimes is a pretty face with an empty head.
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Offline mystery-ak

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Re: Tea Party’s Senate hopes fade
« Reply #23 on: August 05, 2014, 10:27:17 PM »
P. Roberts (i)   49.1%   60,404
M. Wolf   39.2%   48,256
D. Smith   6.3%   7,708
A. Zahnter   5.4%   6,582

Precincts Reporting: 33.7%
    Updated: 10:26 PM ET
    Source: Associated Press

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Offline mystery-ak

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Re: Tea Party’s Senate hopes fade
« Reply #24 on: August 05, 2014, 10:28:36 PM »
P. Roberts (i)   47.8%   76,736
M. Wolf   41.4%   66,395
D. Smith   6.0%   9,623
A. Zahnter   4.8%   7,777

Precincts Reporting: 49.7%
    Updated: 10:27 PM ET
    Source: Associated Press

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