Author Topic: Gallup Poll: Midterms Look Grim for Democrats  (Read 1306 times)

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Online mystery-ak

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Gallup Poll: Midterms Look Grim for Democrats
« on: August 02, 2014, 08:38:21 AM »
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Gallup Poll: Midterms Look Grim for Democrats
Friday, August 1, 2014 12:16 PM

By: Sandy Fitzgerald

Slightly more Americans identify politically as being Democrats than Republicans, but that isn't enough to overcome voters' major dissatisfaction with President Barack Obama, the economy, and other factors — and could spell a tough time for Democrats at the polls this year, a new Gallup Poll concludes.

According to the poll, released Thursday, 42 percent of Americans say they are Democrats or they are Democratic-leaning independents, and 40 percent say they are Republicans or lean right.



But that advantage doesn't bode well when compared to historical patterns. The numbers parallel what Gallup found at the same point during similar midterm years of 1994, 2002, and 2010 that went strongly Republican at the polls, not what was measured when Democrats went strong in 1998 and 2006.

When paired with a June Gallup Poll that revealed that just 1 in 4 Americans are satisfied with the direction in which the country is heading, and showing that Obama's popularity is at the same low point as in 2010, the pollster said that the indicators are pointing to many difficulties for Democrats once again.

In 2010, when the president's job approval rating hovered around the 40 percent mark, Democrats ended up losing more than 60 House seats.

"Only two presidents have had lower job approval ratings in recent midterm elections — George W. Bush in 2006 and Ronald Reagan in 1982," Gallup pointed out in June.

"In those years, the president's party lost more than 20 seats, suggesting seat loss is not always proportional to presidential job approval, but underscoring the peril the president's party faces when his approval rating is below 50 percent."

In the more recent poll, Gallup noted that the indicators will not likely change by November, so the Democratic Party will have to "match or exceed Republican turnout this fall if they hope to keep control of the Senate and minimize the size of the Republican majority in the House."

Another issue is that more Republicans tend to vote than Democrats in midterm elections, and the advantage "leaves the Democratic Party politically vulnerable in midterm election years when they do not have a significant cushion in partisanship," said Gallup.

In fact, in years like this one, when Democrats have a slightly higher percentage, Republican turnout advantages have led to GOP victories for House seats in 1994, 2002, and 2010, the report said.

In addition, the seats gained could be determined by structural factors, the report said, including how parties performed in the last election. Republicans gained seats in 1994 and 2010 after the executive and legislative branches of government were controlled by Democrats, and after former President Bill Clinton's approval ratings were in the mid-40s in 1994, much like Obama's were in 2010.

But as Republicans already control the House of Representatives, the GOP is more likely to make its big gains in the Senate, replacing many incumbents who were elected in 2008.

The new poll was conducted from July 1-30 with a random sample of 14,718 adults age 18 and older. Results based on the full sample have a margin of error of plus or minus 1 percentage point.

Meanwhile, The New York Times, which conducts a daily computerized analysis of the upcoming election, Friday said Republicans have a 54 percent likelihood of wresting control of the Senate away from Democrats. But the newspaper is still declaring the November election to be "essentially the same as a coin flip.

The newspaper ranks six Democratic incumbents in the most danger of losing their seats to Republicans: John Walsh of Montana, with a 96 percent likelihood; Mark Pryor, Arkansas, 74 percent; Mary Landrieu, Louisiana, 60 percent; Mark Udall, Colorado, 40 percent; Kay Hagan, North Carolina, 39 percent; and Mark Begich, Alaska, at 38 percent.

Also on Thursday, Kansas Sen. Jerry Moran, who chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said at a luncheon with reporters that he considers the likelihood that Republicans will retake the Senate higher today than when he took control of the group in 2012, reports The Daily Caller.

He said Republicans are expected to pick up seats from Democrats in 12 to 14 states, but Republicans only need to turn six states to win back the Senate.

The most likely seats to be taken, said Moran, are in West Virginia, Montana, and South Dakota, which he described as "solidly red states, and they have good candidates, excellent candidates, and Democrat opposition is not at that caliber."

Other key target states, Moran said, are Louisiana, Arkansas, North Carolina, and Alaska, where Democratic incumbents are seeking re-election in red states.

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Offline olde north church

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Re: Gallup Poll: Midterms Look Grim for Democrats
« Reply #1 on: August 02, 2014, 09:01:32 AM »
Quote

He said Republicans are expected to pick up seats from Democrats in 12 to 14 states, but Republicans only need to turn six states to win back the Senate.


And that is why Barrah (black voice affectation) don't know whether to s h i t or go blind.  Although, "there is many a slip, twixt the cup and the lip", we are talking the GOP, Don Knott hands rule the day.
Why?  Well, because I'm a bastard, that's why.

Offline 240B

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Re: Gallup Poll: Midterms Look Grim for Democrats
« Reply #2 on: August 02, 2014, 09:24:12 AM »
The question is, does the GOP(establishment) actually want to win. Sometimes I get the impression that they work for the Democrats.
 
I wonder if Soros will invite all the GOPe types to another one of his big Dem conventions. And I wonder how many will show up.
You cannot "COEXIST" with people who want to kill you.

Online mystery-ak

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Re: Gallup Poll: Midterms Look Grim for Democrats
« Reply #3 on: August 02, 2014, 09:27:23 AM »
The question is, does the GOP(establishment) actually want to win. Sometimes I get the impression that they work for the Democrats.
 
I wonder if Soros will invite all the GOPe types to another one of his big Dem conventions. And I wonder how many will show up.

They may want to win but they certainly don't know how to lead...

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Online Lando Lincoln

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Re: Gallup Poll: Midterms Look Grim for Democrats
« Reply #4 on: August 02, 2014, 09:27:38 AM »
It is the fissures among the Republicans that will defeat the Republicans, not the Democrats.
For the progressive, there is very little to love about the United States. Washington, Jefferson, Madison? A bunch of rotten slaveholders, hypocrites, and cowards even when their hearts were in the right places. The Declaration of Independence? A manifesto for the propertied classes. The Constitution? An artifact of sexism and white supremacy. The sacrifices in the great wars of the 20th century? Feeding the poor and the disenfranchised into the meat-grinder of imperialism. The gifts of Carnegie, Rockefeller, Vanderbilt, Morgan, Astor? Blood money from self-aggrandizing robber barons. Nat Rev

Offline Chieftain

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Re: Gallup Poll: Midterms Look Grim for Democrats
« Reply #5 on: August 02, 2014, 09:47:18 AM »
It is the fissures among the Republicans that will defeat the Republicans, not the Democrats.

The Dhimmies face the same problem, only in Spades...(pun intended).................

 :whistle:

Offline Atomic Cow

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Re: Gallup Poll: Midterms Look Grim for Democrats
« Reply #6 on: August 02, 2014, 02:27:24 PM »
It is the fissures among the Republicans that will defeat the Republicans, not the Democrats.

When the GOPe pulls things like they did in Mississippi, the fractures are their own damn fault.
"...And these atomic bombs which science burst upon the world that night were strange, even to the men who used them."  H. G. Wells, The World Set Free, 1914

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Online Lando Lincoln

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Re: Gallup Poll: Midterms Look Grim for Democrats
« Reply #7 on: August 02, 2014, 04:14:05 PM »
Blame becomes tedious to me after a certain point. Too much blame can rob us of living. I tried to convey that to my sons. They seem to have heard.

 The same is so in today's politics. The whining and whimpering does no good once the slate of candidates is set. I hope we figure that out by November.
For the progressive, there is very little to love about the United States. Washington, Jefferson, Madison? A bunch of rotten slaveholders, hypocrites, and cowards even when their hearts were in the right places. The Declaration of Independence? A manifesto for the propertied classes. The Constitution? An artifact of sexism and white supremacy. The sacrifices in the great wars of the 20th century? Feeding the poor and the disenfranchised into the meat-grinder of imperialism. The gifts of Carnegie, Rockefeller, Vanderbilt, Morgan, Astor? Blood money from self-aggrandizing robber barons. Nat Rev

Online truth_seeker

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Re: Gallup Poll: Midterms Look Grim for Democrats
« Reply #8 on: August 02, 2014, 05:17:33 PM »
Blame becomes tedious to me after a certain point. Too much blame can rob us of living. I tried to convey that to my sons. They seem to have heard.

 The same is so in today's politics. The whining and whimpering does no good once the slate of candidates is set. I hope we figure that out by November.
Most people who vote, don't wallow in political muck 24/7 like forum junkies do.

Based on the amount of time and attention they choose to spend on the election, the just vote and then go on about their business.

Junkies have to fix daily, like a exercise fanatic joneses for endorphins. Gotta live that emotional thing, when worrying about the state of things.

And it is always "the worst ever." Except for those of us who remember the late 60s and early 70s, the draft, the anti-war sentiment, etc. on top of the ever-present fear of nuclear war with the USSR, inflation, gas lines.

Today is mild by comparison. Sure Obama is a scum bag. But he's only got a couple of years left, and chances are good come November we'll trim his wings some more.

Today is a walk in the park. But I'm losing my patience with the fringe deluge, here. Makes this place seem like kooks-ville conspiracy theory nut jobs.


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Online Oceander

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Re: Gallup Poll: Midterms Look Grim for Democrats
« Reply #9 on: August 02, 2014, 05:50:39 PM »
Blame becomes tedious to me after a certain point. Too much blame can rob us of living. I tried to convey that to my sons. They seem to have heard.

 The same is so in today's politics. The whining and whimpering does no good once the slate of candidates is set. I hope we figure that out by November.


Thank you.
Trump does not represent the will of the people.  If we really wanted to respect the decision of "the people," then Clinton would be the president-elect, not Trump, for the simple reason that she won the popular vote.

Online Oceander

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Re: Gallup Poll: Midterms Look Grim for Democrats
« Reply #10 on: August 02, 2014, 05:51:18 PM »
Most people who vote, don't wallow in political muck 24/7 like forum junkies do.

Based on the amount of time and attention they choose to spend on the election, the just vote and then go on about their business.

Junkies have to fix daily, like a exercise fanatic joneses for endorphins. Gotta live that emotional thing, when worrying about the state of things.

And it is always "the worst ever." Except for those of us who remember the late 60s and early 70s, the draft, the anti-war sentiment, etc. on top of the ever-present fear of nuclear war with the USSR, inflation, gas lines.

Today is mild by comparison. Sure Obama is a scum bag. But he's only got a couple of years left, and chances are good come November we'll trim his wings some more.

Today is a walk in the park. But I'm losing my patience with the fringe deluge, here. Makes this place seem like kooks-ville conspiracy theory nut jobs.





Relax.  You're blowing things here out of proportion.
Trump does not represent the will of the people.  If we really wanted to respect the decision of "the people," then Clinton would be the president-elect, not Trump, for the simple reason that she won the popular vote.

Online Lando Lincoln

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Re: Gallup Poll: Midterms Look Grim for Democrats
« Reply #11 on: August 02, 2014, 06:14:24 PM »

Relax.  You're blowing things here out of proportion.

I agree. I do not view today's perils through rose colored glasses or through the lens that "things were worse when...".  My point is that we had better stop dividing ourselves and fracturing along lines of blame. We will not have a perfect line-up of candidates on the first Tuesday in November. My concern is that the outcome will be determined more by our bickering and grievances - and blame - than by the turnout of the left.

Let's smother the Democrats the best we can. Then we get to work with the result.
For the progressive, there is very little to love about the United States. Washington, Jefferson, Madison? A bunch of rotten slaveholders, hypocrites, and cowards even when their hearts were in the right places. The Declaration of Independence? A manifesto for the propertied classes. The Constitution? An artifact of sexism and white supremacy. The sacrifices in the great wars of the 20th century? Feeding the poor and the disenfranchised into the meat-grinder of imperialism. The gifts of Carnegie, Rockefeller, Vanderbilt, Morgan, Astor? Blood money from self-aggrandizing robber barons. Nat Rev

Online Oceander

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Re: Gallup Poll: Midterms Look Grim for Democrats
« Reply #12 on: August 02, 2014, 06:15:49 PM »
I agree. I do not view today's perils through rose colored glasses or through the lens that "things were worse when...".  My point is that we had better stop dividing ourselves and fracturing along lines of blame. We will not have a perfect line-up of candidates on the first Tuesday in November. My concern is that the outcome will be determined more by our bickering and grievances - and blame - than by the turnout of the left.

Let's smother the Democrats the best we can. Then we get to work with the result.


I'm with you my friend!
Trump does not represent the will of the people.  If we really wanted to respect the decision of "the people," then Clinton would be the president-elect, not Trump, for the simple reason that she won the popular vote.

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Re: Gallup Poll: Midterms Look Grim for Democrats
« Reply #13 on: August 02, 2014, 06:19:08 PM »

I'm with you my friend!
Me too. Most of the time the best democrat or 3rd party choice, is worse than the worst Republican.

The choices in how they vote are starkly different.
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Offline 240B

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Re: Gallup Poll: Midterms Look Grim for Democrats
« Reply #14 on: August 02, 2014, 06:48:59 PM »
I agree. I do not view today's perils through rose colored glasses or through the lens that "things were worse when...".  My point is that we had better stop dividing ourselves and fracturing along lines of blame. We will not have a perfect line-up of candidates on the first Tuesday in November. My concern is that the outcome will be determined more by our bickering and grievances - and blame - than by the turnout of the left.

Let's smother the Democrats the best we can. Then we get to work with the result.

There may be some here who are missing the point. When you have a clear winner in the Republican primary (totally against the will and funding of the GOP), and then the GOP hires and funds the Democrat war-machine to overthrow the will of the people, by calling 'the people' hate mongers who hate Black people, that is a little bit more than infighting, or a conspiarcy. That is just plain actual fact.
 
The GOP funded the overthrow an election, using Democrats, simply because they didn't like the vote.
 
It is unfair to demand that people 'fall in line' with the GOP, when the GOP has open disdain for 'the people'. They are willing to openly subvert elections in the most vicious means ever to get their 'chosen' good-ol-boy elected, then that is sufficient behavior to call into question who they are working for.
 
I may vote GOP as the lesser of two idiots, but they should never delude themselves into thinking that I do not know exactly who and what they are.
 
One day, they will all be gone.
 
Whomever it is, it ani't us. They don't give a damn about us. In so many cases they actually fight against the American people. Again, that is not 'delusion' or conspiracy, that is a fact as plain as the nose on your face.
You cannot "COEXIST" with people who want to kill you.

Online Lando Lincoln

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Re: Gallup Poll: Midterms Look Grim for Democrats
« Reply #15 on: August 02, 2014, 06:49:29 PM »
Thanks guys.

Sitting by the pool today with my thoughts. Don't mean to preach!
For the progressive, there is very little to love about the United States. Washington, Jefferson, Madison? A bunch of rotten slaveholders, hypocrites, and cowards even when their hearts were in the right places. The Declaration of Independence? A manifesto for the propertied classes. The Constitution? An artifact of sexism and white supremacy. The sacrifices in the great wars of the 20th century? Feeding the poor and the disenfranchised into the meat-grinder of imperialism. The gifts of Carnegie, Rockefeller, Vanderbilt, Morgan, Astor? Blood money from self-aggrandizing robber barons. Nat Rev

Online Lando Lincoln

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Re: Gallup Poll: Midterms Look Grim for Democrats
« Reply #16 on: August 02, 2014, 06:52:33 PM »

There may be some here who are missing the point. When you have a clear winner in the Republican primary (totally against the will and funding of the GOP), and then the GOP hires and funds the Democrat war-machine to overthrow the will of the people, by calling 'the people' hate mongers who hate Black people, that is a little bit more than infighting, or a conspiarcy. That is just plain actual fact.
 
The GOP funded the overthrow an election, using Democrats, simply because they didn't like the vote.
 
It is unfair to demand that people 'fall in line' with the GOP, when the GOP has open disdain for 'the people'. They are willing to openly subvert elections in the most vicious means ever to get their 'chosen' good-ol-boy elected, then that is sufficient behavior to call into question who they are working for.
 
I may vote GOP as the lesser of two idiots, but they should never delude themselves into thinking that I do not know exactly who and what they are.
 
One day, they will all be gone.
 
Whomever it is, it ani't us. They don't give a damn about us. In so many cases they actually fight against the American people. Again, that is not 'delusion' or conspiracy, that is a fact as plain as the nose on your face.

Indeed, there is nefarious crap going on. No quibble there. But that is not the cause of our "internal" bickering and division.
For the progressive, there is very little to love about the United States. Washington, Jefferson, Madison? A bunch of rotten slaveholders, hypocrites, and cowards even when their hearts were in the right places. The Declaration of Independence? A manifesto for the propertied classes. The Constitution? An artifact of sexism and white supremacy. The sacrifices in the great wars of the 20th century? Feeding the poor and the disenfranchised into the meat-grinder of imperialism. The gifts of Carnegie, Rockefeller, Vanderbilt, Morgan, Astor? Blood money from self-aggrandizing robber barons. Nat Rev

Offline Once-Ler

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Re: Gallup Poll: Midterms Look Grim for Democrats
« Reply #17 on: August 02, 2014, 07:20:07 PM »
The question is, does the GOP(establishment) actually want to win. Sometimes I get the impression that they work for the Democrats.
Of course we want to win.  That is why the GOPe smacked the taste right out of the mouths of the right fringe during the primaries.  When we take 10-12 seats in the Senate the GOPe will have proved they know how to win.  And we will have no obligation to listen to the reckless voices of the defeated.

Sometimes I get the impression the fringe right and fringe left have a lot more in common then they want to admit.
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I was completely wrong about Trump becoming president. So I'm hoping I was also completely wrong about him being a terrible one.

Online truth_seeker

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Re: Gallup Poll: Midterms Look Grim for Democrats
« Reply #18 on: August 02, 2014, 07:32:03 PM »
Of course we want to win.  That is why the GOPe smacked the taste right out of the mouths of the right fringe during the primaries.  When we take 10-12 seats in the Senate the GOPe will have proved they know how to win.  And we will have no obligation to listen to the reckless voices of the defeated.

Sometimes I get the impression the fringe right and fringe left have a lot more in common then they want to admit.
However some of those 10-12, or whatever the count is, will be from the anti-GOPe faction.

There will be winners from both sides of the GOP, and they'll need to unite to thwart Obama's potential to do further harm.
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Online Lando Lincoln

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Re: Gallup Poll: Midterms Look Grim for Democrats
« Reply #19 on: August 02, 2014, 07:49:08 PM »
However some of those 10-12, or whatever the count is, will be from the anti-GOPe faction.

There will be winners from both sides of the GOP, and they'll need to unite to thwart Obama's potential to do further harm.

This.
For the progressive, there is very little to love about the United States. Washington, Jefferson, Madison? A bunch of rotten slaveholders, hypocrites, and cowards even when their hearts were in the right places. The Declaration of Independence? A manifesto for the propertied classes. The Constitution? An artifact of sexism and white supremacy. The sacrifices in the great wars of the 20th century? Feeding the poor and the disenfranchised into the meat-grinder of imperialism. The gifts of Carnegie, Rockefeller, Vanderbilt, Morgan, Astor? Blood money from self-aggrandizing robber barons. Nat Rev

Offline MACVSOG68

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Re: Gallup Poll: Midterms Look Grim for Democrats
« Reply #20 on: August 02, 2014, 10:14:29 PM »
Well...I thought I'd add some intellectual encouragement here, but on both sides of this intra-ideological debate, pretty much everything has been said.  Either getting Harry Reid out of his position as stone wall-in-chief, or lose to principled purity. Personally I'd say to hell with impracticable and unachievable goals (at this pint in time) and settle for stopping this president from at least gaining through legislative machinations.  As a member in good standing of the squishy moderate conservative wing, I say send Harry back to minority leader.  One step at a time.


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Offline Once-Ler

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Re: Gallup Poll: Midterms Look Grim for Democrats
« Reply #21 on: August 02, 2014, 10:55:17 PM »
However some of those 10-12, or whatever the count is, will be from the anti-GOPe faction.

There will be winners from both sides of the GOP, and they'll need to unite to thwart Obama's potential to do further harm.
Who will be from the anti-GOPe faction?  Can you list three?  I'll tell you who is gone next year.  Michele Bachmann, Steve Stockman, and Tom Tancredo.   Those are going to be some big clown shoes to fill.
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I was completely wrong about Trump becoming president. So I'm hoping I was also completely wrong about him being a terrible one.

Offline evadR²

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Re: Gallup Poll: Midterms Look Grim for Democrats
« Reply #22 on: August 02, 2014, 11:26:43 PM »
I smell Rope-a-Dope in this whole ordeal.
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